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Inside: What happens when you’re traded? Von Miller explains, plus fantasy trade ideas from Jake Ciely. Oh, and the Eagles top our Power Rankings. Let’s roll.
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The human side of deals
You’re reading your favorite NFL newsletter, when a call comes in. It’s your boss. “Hey, we’re moving you to Baltimore. They’re expecting you tomorrow.”
A few things run through your mind. First, Baltimore? No offense, but was L.A. not an option? Then again, real estate prices in Baltimore are friendlier than L.A., so your mind turns elsewhere. They didn’t like me here? How will I fit in with my new co-workers? Do they also leave early on Fridays?
The NFL experience isn’t too different. These superhuman athletes are still just people. To understand what it’s like to be traded, The Athletic’s Nicki Jhabvala spoke to more than a dozen current players who have been dealt at least once in their careers.
I want to highlight quotes in that story from Von Miller, who was blindsided by the Broncos a day before the 2021 deadline.
“Me and my agent, we were totally in the dark. I didn’t know anything about it. I had totally bought into being a Denver Bronco for life.
“I was in the training room. (Head athletic trainer) Vince Garcia said, ‘Hey, George (Paton, Broncos GM) wants to talk to you upstairs.’ And me being the vet that I was, I was like, ‘Tell George to come down here.’ And he was like, ‘No, I think you better go upstairs.’
“I was like, ‘Oh s—.’ Immediately it felt like I was going to the principal’s office and my mind went to all these different places.
“My heart started beating fast. It’s a long stairwell that takes you from the ground floor to the main floor. Walking up that stairwell, I lost my breath. I go to George Paton’s office and I’m sitting down, breathing hard.
“He’s like, ‘Well, I just wanted to let you know that we’re trading you to the Rams.’ I was like, ‘The Rams?’
‘Is that not what you like?’ he asked. ‘Do you want to go somewhere else? We talked to the Cardinals, Cowboys and the Bills, and I felt like the Rams were a good fit for you. If you don’t want to go there, let me know.’ …
“It felt like I had become, not old, but obsolete. I had become expendable. The team would be better without me and rebuilding in another direction than what it would be sticking with me. That’s a hard pill to swallow.
“While I was in his office, it came across my phone: ‘Von Miller has been traded to the Rams.’ It was already out there before we could even finish our conversation. …
“That s— just brought the tears out of me.”
People are people, regardless of whether they’re in Baltimore to work at Johns Hopkins or with Lamar Jackson. The full story offers a fascinating look into the human side of these deals. You can read it here.
Over to Jake for some fantasy suggestions before my top waiver pickups.
All In with Jake Ciely
After the latest 25-plus PPR performance by Panthers RB Rico Dowdle (28.1) and a spectacular starting debut for Bears RB Kyle Monangai (22.8), what should you do with two of Week 9’s top three runners?
Both are potential sell-high opportunities, but not must-sells.
Dowdle has been as good as the elites. If Chuba Hubbard wasn’t on the same team, we’d have no qualms about putting Dowdle in the top-10 conversation. The risk is that one bad game for Dowdle, or even potentially a bad half, could mean a Hubbard uptick.
So if someone is willing to give you top-10 value (unlikely), you sell. If not, you hold. And, if someone is so worried by the Hubbard situation that they’d sell Dowdle for an RB2 cost, you buy!
As for Monangai, he’s possibly an easier sell because of his performance and the perception around D’Andre Swift. No one really wanted Swift despite the fact he was the clear lead. They still didn’t want to buy even while he was an RB2 and even less so once he put up RB1 numbers. Swift is a Jahmyr Gibbs and Monangai a David Montgomery, albeit lesser versions.
If someone thinks Monangai is the new majority lead and an RB1, sell. If not, hold and enjoy the value. Even with a healthy Swift, Monangai can be a weekly top-25 RB with upside for more any given week, or if Swift misses time again.
Back to Jacob.
Tight ends are so back, plus Week 10 targets
In Week 9, Brock Bowers went nuclear for the Raiders and fantasy teams alike, catching 12 of 13 targets for 133 total yards and three touchdowns. His 43.3 PPR points paced the NFL.
(Yet it wasn’t the best-ever outing from a Raiders tight end, as Darren Waller torched 2020’s 0-12 Jets for 13 receptions, 200 yards and two touchdowns, equal to 45 PPR points.)
Other tight ends led their teams in Week 9. Bears TE Colston Loveland caught six passes for 118 and two touchdowns, Bills TE Dalton Kincaid brought in six for 101 and a touchdown and Sam LaPorta had six for 97 and a touchdown. Are we sure National Tight Ends Day isn’t a two-week holiday?
Tight ends are seeing more and more action. There’s a growing trend of teams using 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends, the blue line in the chart below) to field heavier lineups, countering the defenses that frequently use five-DB looks (nickel defense, in red below) to stop the pass.
Bowers has been a big beneficiary, and his return was key to unlocking the potential of this Raiders offense, which ran nearly 60 percent of its plays out of 12 personnel in Week 9, by far the weekend’s highest rate in the NFL.
It’s a trend that the 2011 Patriots illustrated best with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who combined for 169 receptions, 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns that year.
This year’s most effective 12-personnel teams, ranked by total Expected Points Added when using this lineup? The Seahawks (6-2), Eagles (6-2) and Colts (7-2). There’s something there.
That’s a long-winded way of reminding you that tight ends are one of the league’s most underpaid positions. As for this week’s top fantasy waiver adds:
No. 1: WR Alec Pierce, Colts. This past weekend, 17.5 PPR points, an NFL-leading 212 air yards (the distance the ball travels in the air, indicating he’s getting deep throws) and 13 targets cemented him as the No. 2 option in Indy.
He’s not just running long, though, ranking 12th in receiving yards per game. He was the top beneficiary of the Steelers’ focus on stopping rookie TE Tyler Warren.
No. 2A: The aforementioned Loveland. After mostly splitting Chicago’s snaps with Cole Kmet, the rookie broke out on Sunday while playing a season-high 81 percent of snaps. If Kmet misses Week 10’s matchup against the Giants, expect Loveland’s role to increase after gaining Ben Johnson’s trust.
No. 2B: TE Luke Musgrave, Packers. With Tucker Kraft out for the season with an ACL tear, many are jumping toward Musgrave as his replacement. He’s not quite that guy, but that’s OK.
Kraft’s a tackle-breaking, yards-after-catch machine. The 6-foot-6, 253-pound Musgrave is a taller, slightly faster but less physical presence who wins contested catches. In his only four games with snap shares over 80 percent, Musgrave averaged 9.4 fantasy points.
No. 3: WR Parker Washington, Jaguars. It’s rare that a team’s No. 1 receiver is still available, but here we are. It might feel like Travis Hunter’s injury is what’s led to more opportunities for Washington, but this former sixth-round pick saw 10 targets the week prior to his nine-target, eight-catch and 90-yard day in the first game without Hunter.
He’s seen 27.3 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s targets over the past two weeks, good for WR17 (and well ahead of Brian Thomas Jr.’s 15.2 percent). Could the recently acquired Jakobi Meyers spoil the party? Possibly, but at least not for another week.
No. 4: RB Devin Singletary, Giants. In their first game sans Cam Skattebo, Singletary out-snapped, out-touched and out-ran Tyrone Tracy, and should stick as the 1A to Tracy’s 1B in the Giants backfield — though both are liable to be vultured at the goal line by QB Jaxson Dart.
Deeper leagues: RB Terrell Jennings, Patriots. As Jake explains in his Week 10 Waiver Wire column, Jennings saw 40 percent of the backfield work for New England and is a desperation play if Rhamondre Stevenson again sits.
Extra Points
🏈 Still that guy. Remember Matthew Stafford’s offseason back concerns? It’s held up as he’s led L.A. to the No. 2 spot in our Week 10 Power Rankings.
📊 Still a “dude.” How great has he been? The 37-year-old’s up to No. 5 in Jeff Howe’s QB Stock Report, with one exec calling him “one of the most underrated QBs ever.” Easy agree.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Jayden Daniels’ devastating elbow injury was avoidable, writes David Aldridge. “It was, simply, malpractice.”
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