Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 10 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 10, which kicked off Thursday with the Raiders at the Broncos.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

ATL-IND | NYG-CHI | BUF-MIA | BAL-MIN | CLE-NYJ | NE-TB
NO-CAR | JAX-HOU | ARI-SEA | LAR-SF | DET-WAS | PIT-LAC | PHI-GB

Projected score: Colts 29, Falcons 20

Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr.

Fantasy scoop: Pitts a lineup lock? It’s not hard to justify, considering (A) his recent usage (B) two top tight ends on a bye and (C) a terrific Week 10 matchup. Pitts has handled seven-plus targets in three straight games and sits top five among tight ends in routes, target share, targets and catches. He hasn’t seen enough goal line work (one TD and one end zone target), but he’s still 11th at the position in fantasy PPG.

Pitts, who has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past five outings, will face a Colts defense that sits top five in targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Indianapolis has allowed one TD and 19-plus fantasy points to tight ends in four straight, including 20-plus-point efforts by Oronde Gadsden II and Trey McBride.

Shadow Report: Jaylon Jones made his 2025 debut on Sunday and successfully shadowed DK Metcalf. Jones aligned against Metcalf on 22 of his 33 routes, including 21 of 23 on the perimeter. Pittsburgh’s top receiver was held to 6 yards on four targets, totaling 2.6 fantasy points. It’s possible Jones shadows London this week as Sauce Gardner gets acclimated to the Colts’ scheme, but either way, London will have his hands full against the Colts’ new-look perimeter corner situation. The Colts have allowed the second-most receptions and eighth-most fantasy points to receivers, but the recent improvements suggest this will be a tough assignment for London and Darnell Mooney.

Over/under: 49.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: Colts 80% (3rd highest)

Projected score: Bears 28, Giants 27

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, D’Andre Swift, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rome Odunze

Fantasy scoop: In the Giants’ first full game without Cam Skattebo, the duo of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary formed a near-even backfield committee. Singletary surprisingly led the way, handling eight carries and two targets on 31 snaps (16 routes). Tracy managed five carries and four targets on 25 snaps (14 routes).

Tracy was expected to operate as the lead back (as he did most of last season), but especially after Singletary outplayed him (51 yards to Tracy’s 37), we need to plan as if this will be a near-even split for the time being. Week 10 presents a solid matchup against a Bears defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth highest) to RBs. Both backs are best viewed as flex options, with Tracy the slightly preferred option.

Shadow Report: If Paulson Adebo returns from injury this week, he’s a candidate to shadow Odunze. New York’s top corner traveled with Terry McLaurin in Week 1 (McLaurin scored 4.7 fantasy points), A.J. Brown in Week 6 (14.0) and, prior to leaving injured, Courtland Sutton in Week 7 (8.9, prior to Adebo’s departure). New York continues to struggle against receivers (top seven in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed), so while Odunze’s ceiling would be limited in this scenario, he remains a fantasy starter. Note that if Adebo remains out (not to mention No. 2 CB Cor’Dale Flott), this will be a plus matchup across the board for the Chicago passing game.

Shadow Report: Upgrade the Giants’ wide receivers against a Chicago pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers. After surrendering 17-plus fantasy points to three Bengals receivers Sunday, the Bears have allowed 13 TDs (second most) and 9.8 yards per target (second highest) to the position. Chicago remains very short-handed at corner with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon on IR, which sets up Robinson, Darius Slayton and Ray-Ray McCloud III with a terrific matchup against Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, Nick McCloud and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Over/under: 55.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Bears 56% (11th highest)

Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 20