NFL Week 11 projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game

There are plenty of big games in the NFL this week. Let’s take a look at what my model thinks of Chiefs-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks and the other big games set for Week 11.

I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense. From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season.

The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to beat the Denver Broncos by 3.5 points, matching the betting spread. Elsewhere in the projections, the Los Angeles Rams are expected to beat the Seattle Seahawks by 3.5 points and the Philadelphia Eagles are two points better than the Detroit Lions.