Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings’ formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
This week isn’t abundant with soft quarterback matchups. Four teams, including three of the 13 most favorable matchups, are on byes. Another two of those 13 most favorable matchups, the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions, play on “Thursday Night Football” and therefore demand early lineup decisions. Another faces the No. 1 positional scorer, Josh Allen, an obvious weekly fantasy starter. Streaming quarterbacks this week means either risking a middling matchup or diving deep into the positional pool.
Matchups highlight: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). His fantasy production has been lackluster through four NFL starts — he has failed to crack the positional top 10 in any of them — but to his credit, he has displayed remarkably good accuracy, posting the league’s fifth-best completion percentage (68.2%) and seventh-best off target rate (12.0%) during that five-week span. The Buccaneers have been one of the league’s weaker pass defenses all year, but especially lately, where quarterbacks have averaged the second-most fantasy points per passing attempt (0.58) and most points per rushing attempt (1.56) against them during the past five weeks. If Shough attempts between the 43 and 38 throws he did the past two weeks, he could put up his first start-worthy point total.
Others to like: Jared Goff, Lions (vs. Cowboys); Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks (at Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to avoid: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Green Bay Packers). Week 2 of his four-week span of treacherous matchups — also the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Cleveland Browns and Packers again the next two weeks — brings the defense that has been the toughest against quarterbacks over the past five weeks. Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Williams ranks last in completion percentage (58.1%), second worst in off target rate (22.1%) and 22nd of 33 in touchdown rate (4.3%). He’s a dangerous start in a playoff (or get-in) week.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders). He averaged a running back-worst 2.3 fewer yards per carry than expected, per Next Gen Stats, and took only one of 24 carries for double-digit yardage while starting the Broncos past two games. Nevertheless, Harvey’s success in scoring position — he converted a pair of touchdowns on plays within five yards of the end zone in Week 13 — will keep him in the team’s good graces for what is a second consecutive outstanding matchup. The Raiders saw three different sub-70%-started running backs exceed 16 fantasy points against them the past two weeks combined, in games in which their opponents largely controlled the pace of play. The latter point is important here, with the Broncos one of the week’s biggest favorites despite their road-team status.
Others to like: Aaron Jones Sr./Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Washington Commanders); Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (at Buffalo Bills).
Matchup to avoid: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders (vs. Broncos). He has markedly improved his performance as a receiver recently, averaging 5.7 of his 10.7 points over the past five weeks on catches, which helps alleviate some of the concerns about game flow in this matchup. That said, Jeanty averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in these teams’ Week 10 meeting, his 15.3 fantasy points in that game propped up by a four-yard touchdown early in the contest. He’s one of only six running backs to score as many as 15 points in a game against the Broncos this year.
Wide receivers
1:29
Is Chistian Watson a reliable fantasy option in Week 14?
Daniel Dopp explains why Christian Watson is a low-end flex option vs. the Bears.
Matchups highlight: Christian Watson, Packers (vs. Bears). He doesn’t appear to have lost a step following January ACL surgery. In his six games since returning, he has nine catches on throws 15-plus yards downfield and has averaged 15.2 mph on his routes, per Next Gen Stats, ranking second and third in those categories, respectively. While the opposing Bears did get cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson back from injury last week, the team has had a difficult time keeping its secondary healthy all year. They’ve also surrendered a 51.6% completion rate, seven touchdowns and 78.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers on throws at least 15 yards downfield, all of those numbers bottom three in the league.
Others to like: Jameson Williams, Lions (vs. Cowboys); Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins); Chris Olave, Saints (at Buccaneers).
Matchup to avoid: Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles, “Monday Night Football”). Chargers receivers have been difficult to gauge over the past five weeks. They have four different players, including tight end Oronde Gadsden II, with a target share between 17-22%, joining the Indianapolis Colts as the only teams that can claim that many. With McConkey’s leading role more in question these days, a matchup with the Eagles is undesirable. They’ve held opposing WR1s to 1.45 fantasy points per target for the season, and wide receivers as a whole to 1.42 per target, the fifth- and third-lowest rates in the league.
Tight ends
1:16
Is Kyle Pitts a good fantasy option for Week 14?
Daniel Dopp breaks down why Kyle Pitts is a TE2 option in Week 14 against the Seahawks.
Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons (vs. Seahawks). If the Seahawks’ defense has a flaw, it’s containing opposing tight ends. Their 2.2 Adjusted FPA against the position for the season ranks seventh most in the league, and they’ve seen 10 different tight ends score double-digit fantasy points, including Gunnar Helm (Week 12) and T.J. Hockenson (Week 13) the past two weeks. Pitts has averaged 11.5 points with a 25.9% target share in Kirk Cousins’ three starts this season, giving him a good chance at capitalizing upon the matchup.
Matchup to avoid: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston Texans). He’s a tough player to bench, ranking second in total and per game points among tight ends and 10th at the position with an 18.6% target share. That said, Kelce’s statistical ceiling is lower than usual this week due to the matchup. The Texans have surrendered only three double-digit fantasy point totals to tight ends this season, and they limited Tyler Warren to only 11.2 points in Week 13.