We are in the home stretch. The calendar has flipped to December, the holiday lights are up, and our bank accounts are reeling thanks to all the Christmas shopping we have on deck. In lockstep with all the craziness of the holiday season, we’re in the nitty-gritty of the NFL campaign. As we move into the final full month of the regular season, each game carries with it massive stakes, as one wrong move could result in contenders falling out of the playoffs entirely. It truly is a magical time of the year.
As we watch all of this madness unfold, let’s try to profit off of it and build up that Christmas budget. Below, you can find my picks for every Week 14 contest, which includes my five locks of the week, where three underdogs are pulling off the outright upset.
Note: New England, New York (Giants), San Francisco, and Carolina are on the bye in Week 14.
NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
2025 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 35-30-0
ATS: 85-108-1
ML: 120-73-1
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Cowboys are sneakily one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment. They’ve won three straight, which has been powered by their resurgence on the defensive side of the ball. Ever since defensive tackle Quinnen Williams made his debut, Dallas is undefeated (3-0) and is allowing just 21.7 points per game. That’s over a touchdown difference from the 30.8 points per game they were giving up in the nine games prior.
Now, they square off against a Detroit team that is reeling, losing three of its last five. Defensively, it has struggled in recent weeks, allowing 29 points per game over the past two games. That doesn’t bode well for them against a Cowboys offense that is firing on all cylinders, averaging 29.3 points per game (second in the NFL).
While I expect Dallas to be able to put up points in bunches, I’m not sure Detroit will have the firepower to match them. That’s particularly true because the Cowboys have recorded 55 pressures over the last three games, and if they can rattle Jared Goff early, they could run away with a win and inch even closer to entering the playoff picture.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Lions 24
The pick: Cowboys +3
Indy is on the decline at the moment, owning a 1-3 record over its last four games. That has seen them fall out of first place in the AFC South and looking up to these Jaguars.
Part of the reason for the Colts’ struggles has been Daniel Jones being less than 100% as he is playing through a fractured fibula. With him expected to scramble less, this could leave him as a sitting duck for Jaguars pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who has been on a tear in recent weeks. Over his last five games, Hines-Allen has totaled 5.5 sacks. That sets the stage for Jacksonville to wreak havoc on the Colts’ passing attack.
Meanwhile, if Indy decides to lean on Jonathan Taylor, that also doesn’t match up well with a Jaguars defense that is surrendering the fewest rushing yards per game (82.4) in the NFL this season. The Colts are at risk of tumbling out of the playoff picture by the time Week 14 is done.
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Colts 23
The pick: Jaguars +1.5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
This is a play strictly backing the Browns’ All-World defense. The unit ranks second in the NFL in total yards per game allowed (271.3) and in sacks per game (3.6). They are also top 10 in the NFL in red-zone efficiency. That is a massive mismatch against a Tennessee offense that has been at the bottom of the NFL across the board. The Titans are last in points per game (14.2) and total yards per game (242.4).
That sets the Browns up for utter domination on defense, which means Shedeur Sanders and the offense won’t have to do too much heavy lifting to pull off the win.
Projected score: Browns 23, Titans 14
The pick: Browns -3.5
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC | Fubo, try for free)
I wrote about it coming out of Week 13 that it feels like the nails are starting to hit Kansas City’s coffin. While the events of last week were the initial blows, Sunday night’s matchup against Houston could be the critical hit. Watching the Chiefs this season, they just feel tired. Yes, they’ve been better at Arrowhead than they’ve been on the road, but the Texans are a different beast due to their defense.
We know Houston is the No. 1 scoring defense and in total yards allowed, which will give K.C. headaches. What you might not know is that the Texans are an ideal matchup to nullify Patrick Mahomes’ improvisation. Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards outside of the pocket (73.4 per game), while the Texans are giving up the fewest passing yards per game (11.0) on throws outside of the pocket. For reference, this Houston defense held the Josh Allen-led Bills offense to just three total yards on his nine plays outside the pocket back in Week 11.
With C.J. Stroud back under center, the Texans have the capabilities to put enough points on the board offensively, as the defense bottles up the Chiefs’ offense en route to an upset.
Projected score: Texans 24, Chiefs 20
The pick: Texans +3.5
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN | Fubo, try for free)
The vibes surrounding the Eagles are terrible. They’ve lost back-to-back games, and the entire organization feels miserable. That said, this is an interesting bounce-back spot for them in Los Angeles.
On top of Philadelphia having the rest advantage after playing Friday, the Chargers are looking for Justin Herbert to respond well after undergoing a procedure on his fractured non-throwing hand on Monday. He’s considered day-to-day but is pushing to play. Even if he does, he may not be 100%.
Meanwhile, I think this game has the potential to be a Saquon Barkley showcase. The Chargers can be run on, as we saw back in Week 11 when the Jaguars posted 192 yards and four touchdowns against them on the ground. The combination of Barkley and Jalen Hurts can do just as much damage if they make it a priority.
Projected score: Eagles 26, Chargers 21
The pick: Eagles -2.5
Rest of the bunch
Bengals at Bills
Projected score: Bills 27, Bengals 24
The pick: Bengals +5.5
Dolphins at Jets
Projected score: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
The pick: Dolphins -2.5
Saints at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Saints 17
The pick: Buccaneers -8.5
Steelers at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 24, Steelers 20
The pick: Steelers +5.5
Seahawks at Falcons
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Falcons 20
The pick: Seahawks -7.5
Commanders at Vikings
Projected score: Commanders 24, Vikings 17
The pick: Commanders -1.5
Broncos at Raiders
Projected score: Broncos 26, Raiders 16
The pick: Broncos -7.5
Bears at Packers
Projected score: Packers 27, Bears 20
The pick: Packers -6.5
Rams at Cardinals
Projected score: Rams 27, Cardinals 21
The pick: Cardinals +8.5