In a week when the Lions (8-5) visit the Rams (10-3) and the Patriots (11-2) host the Bills (9-4), a Thursday night game between the Falcons (4-9) and Buccaneers (7-6) can easily get overlooked.
If history is any indication, you won’t want to miss it. The series between these division rivals dates back to 1977, yet is remarkably tied at 32-32. Atlanta has won four of the last six, with the three most recent meetings worthy of primetime:
- Week 1, 2025: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20. A dramatic victory after Emeka Egbuka scored a 25-yard touchdown with 59 seconds left, before Atlanta’s former kicker (and the Giants’ toe-stubber) Younghoe Koo missed a game-tying field goal.
- Week 8, 2024: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 26. Kirk Cousins threw for 276 yards and four touchdowns before Baker Mayfield’s last-second Hail Mary was caught, but out of bounds.
- Week 5, 2024: Falcons 36, Buccaneers 30. Overtime thriller, including Koo’s game-tying field goal in regulation and a walk-off, 45-yard touchdown by Atlanta’s Khadarel Hodge.
The Buccaneers, 4.5-point BetMGM favorites, cling to a playoff spot, while Atlanta has a quarterback, head coach and general manager with jobs on the line.
Inside: Four key matchups to watch tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, along with the candid Troy Aikman and an NFC East hangover for the Eagles and Commanders. Let’s start in Tampa Bay.
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Falcons at Buccaneers: Key matchups
Baker Mayfield vs. Atlanta’s secondary. A series of injuries have derailed Mayfield’s season. An MVP candidate from Weeks 1 to 6, he’s been the league’s worst starting quarterback since Week 7 when measured by EPA per dropback, as we discussed yesterday.
With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan expected to return, Mayfield could get right against a Falcons secondary allowing the NFL’s fourth-highest completion percentage and fifth-most passing yards. He’ll need the rookie Egbuka to start catching passes again, as last week’s potential touchdown cost Tampa Bay in its loss to the Saints.
Kirk Cousins vs. Buccaneers defense. Hard to believe, but there’s a chance Atlanta has the better quarterback tonight — if not by much. Cousins ranks 26th in EPA per dropback since mostly taking over after that same Week 7, but has routinely torched the Buccaneers (four touchdowns in each of 2024’s games), both Atlanta wins. For his career, Cousins averages 24.9 fantasy points against Tampa Bay (16.1 points otherwise), and the Buccaneers were his opponent in the infamous “You Like That” game.
Tristan Wirfs vs. Falcons pass rush. Tampa Bay’s star left tackle returns after a one-game absence to face the best Atlanta pass rush in decades. Seriously. The Falcons’ 43 sacks are already their third-most since 2000, with four games to play. Since Week 7, Atlanta has 29 sacks, the second-most in the league, while blitzing at the second-highest rate (34 percent).
Bijan Robinson vs. Vita Vea. Tampa Bay’s run defense ranks top five in rushing success rate and stopping first downs via the rush since, once again, Week 7. It held Robinson to just 24 yards rushing in Week 1, though he added 100 yards receiving. If the Falcons activate a ground attack, Tampa Bay’s defense could be in trouble.
It’s no given that Mayfield outplays Cousins, and the Falcons are better than their record suggests. Atlanta’s 1-6 record since (you guessed it) Week 7 includes a one-point loss to the 11-2 Patriots and an overtime defeat by the Colts. This team is due for regression and could get back in the win column against a reeling Tampa. It should be close, but I think Atlanta surprises. We’ve got more in our full watch guide.
Struggles of Commanders, Eagles
The NFC East sent two teams to the conference final last season. The upstart Commanders went 12-5, upsetting the Lions before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles, who’d finished 14-3 in the regular season.
Both were better than expected, with Washington led by the best season from a rookie quarterback in modern history. Philly had a nearly equally impressive season from Saquon Barkley.
Everything’s come crashing down, it seems. Daniels can’t stay healthy, and Barkley isn’t running like he did last year. The Commanders are 3-10, closer to this year’s No. 1 pick than to the playoffs:
Meanwhile, based on the discourse amid three straight losses and a season of discontent, you’d think the 8-5 Eagles were 5-8. Yet there’s still hope for the division leader. Their offense is sputtering, but star right tackle Lane Johnson should return soon. Owner Jeffrey Lurie isn’t scared, he told my colleague Michael Silver:
💬 “We have a Super Bowl defense and great special teams. Our offense will get it going. I’m not worried at all.”
As for Washington? Plenty to worry about, principally Daniels. There’s also the future, as the team enters 2026 without second- and fourth-round picks. Here’s my colleague Saad Yousuf:
💬 “It felt like everything went wrong for the Commanders. A contract dispute throughout training camp before a forgettable campaign from star wideout Terry McLaurin. Daniels is now in his third stretch this season of missing games due to injury. Veterans Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz also suffered season-ending injuries as the Commanders limp to the finish line.”
Saad shared where the Commanders collapse ranks among post-conference championship seasons in modern history, behind only the 2003 Raiders, 2005 Eagles and 2001 Vikings.
Next, the Eagles get to play the Raiders at home, while the Commanders are 2.5-point road underdogs against the 2-11 Giants.
Troy Aikman nearly quit
Hard worker. Perfectionist. Winner. Each could describe Troy Aikman, the Dallas Cowboys icon, Hall of Famer and “Monday Night Football” analyst whom Zak Keefer wrote a terrific profile on last season.
I once muted a Monday game, needing to quiet Aikman and his long-time on-air partner Joe Buck from my phone during an overtime period. It felt like I’d switched from color to black and white. I quickly unmuted. A vital piece of the game was missing.
So I was excited to see that Aikman joined my colleague Richard Deitsch on his “Sports Media Podcast,” spending roughly 45 minutes talking about how much he enjoys his job, how he brings an honest approach to the booth and why he’d love to meet Warren Buffett. Two nuggets:
- Aikman almost quit broadcasting. “It was the (2007 season’s) Super Bowl in Arizona, Eli Manning hitting Plaxico Burress for the touchdown against the Patriots. I was at the hotel after the game having dinner with my then-wife, and I just remember thinking that could be the greatest game that I will ever call. It was a tremendous Super Bowl, a great finish, a historical game. Yet after the game I felt more empty than I did at any moment in my life. I just thought, ‘Wow, if this is how I feel, maybe I’m in the wrong profession?’”
- Can he still throw? “I’ve always had the ability to throw a ball, whether it’s a baseball or football, or shooting a basketball. I’ve always had an ability to put it where I wanted to put it. That hasn’t changed. I think my accuracy would still be on target. It wouldn’t get there as fast and I wouldn’t be able to be as accurate as far down the field. But otherwise, I think I could pretty much do it.”
Aikman also shared his thoughts on new LSU coach Lane Kiffin and the differences between the cultures at FOX and ESPN. You can read the full story here.
Extra Points
⏰ Saving time. The first day of the 2026 NFL Draft should be about an hour shorter, as the league trimmed the time between first-round picks to eight minutes. Two more ideas from me: Announce each pick immediately, instead of cutting to commercials, and force the team with the first pick to go as soon the draft begins — they’ve had months to decide.
🤯 NFL reacts to Rivers. My colleague Jeff Howe spoke with league executives after the Colts’ shocking signing. “Fun story. But it’s going to be a disaster.”
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Rivers’ battle against Father Time.
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