If you felt some extra tension this week, I understand. The fantasy football playoffs are like that. And the day you get eliminated is the most painful day of all. No matter what fantasy mishaps I encounter in September or October, I always feel I can overcome it. I’ll make a trade, I’ll find the right pickup, I’ll make better decisions when we get deeper into the season.
But time is no longer your ally this late in the year. You either answer the call or you go home.
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With that all in mind, let’s see who dunked and who got dunked on in Week 15.
Early window delivers huge fantasy booms
The Bills defeated the Patriots, 35-31, in one of the signature games of the day, and the game had plenty of fantasy hits. It’s interesting how these teams mirror each other now. Josh Allen (24.52 fantasy points) and Drake Maye (21.5 fantasy points) are MVP-candidate quarterbacks asked to carry an offense that doesn’t have an alpha receiver. Both quarterbacks are helped by stars in the backfield, James Cook (three total touchdowns, 30.1 points) and TreVeyon Henderson (14-148-2, 29.1 points). And both QBs have to outscore a leaky defense on the other side.
Sunday’s game followed that script precisely — except in one regard.
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Normally, you’d expect Allen to run aggressively while Maye would add a little something on the ground; that script was flipped Sunday. Allen’s three touchdowns all came through the air, while Maye’s two early scores were improvised runs. The important thing is that both players have multiple ways to get to that juicy fantasy score. It’s like in poker, always leave yourself as many outs as possible.
Henderson finished with 16 touches against nine for Rhamondre Stevenson, a ratio the Patriots probably like. Not that Stevenson was bad with his chances (77 total yards), but Henderson is the home-run hitter. Look for more extra bases to come, up against the Ravens and Jets the next two weeks.
Cook’s 22-107-2 rushing log was especially impressive against a New England front seven that’s stuffed the run most of the year. But Allen and Cook were the only right answers in the Buffalo offense on this day. Khalil Shakir snagged all of his targets, but a 5-65-0 line won’t cut it on the playoffs. Two of Allen’s touchdowns went to Dawson Knox (3-37-2), not preferred fantasy pick Dalton Kincaid (3-34-0). Allen rarely looked to his secondary wide receivers after Shakir, with good reason. Look for Allen and Cook to keep lugging the mail against the Browns and Eagles the next two weeks.
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Trevor Lawrence was seen as a future MVP when he was drafted four years ago, and his career has been more bust than boom. But he was an unmistakable hero in Week 15, piling up six touchdowns and 44.3 fantasy points as the Jaguars rolled over the Jets. Lawrence threw for 330 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 51 yards and another score. The 40-point club is fairly rare, and Lawrence is the fifth member this year. He joins Jonathan Taylor (Week 10, 48.10 points), Allen (41.68 points, Week 11), Jahmyr Gibbs (49.9 points, Week 12) and Kyle Pitts (40.10 points, TNF in Week 15).
Like Pitts, it was hard to see this game coming, and it’s likely possible Lawrence was on your bench Sunday. Although Lawrence is rostered in 63% of Yahoo leagues, he was started in just 29% of leagues for the playoffs. Maybe you had better options, or maybe you were on a bye week. And surely a bunch of Lawrence teams didn’t make the fantasy playoffs. But after a game like this, we need to at least reevaluate the current team landscape. It’s possible Lawrence is finally putting it together and this just puts a period on the sentence.
Consider that he’s beaten his fantasy projection in nine of his last 10 games. He has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, and he is a fairly consistent scrambler. And now that the Jaguars have the offense they want — Jakobi Meyers is fitting in nicely, Brian Thomas Jr. is healthy and producing again, Parker Washington has also healed up — Lawrence is ready to spread his wings. Perhaps it just took some time to acclimate to a new offensive scheme. Still, they don’t hand out 40-point games at the airport. You had to be a little surprised watching the Jags go off to this extent.
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And it was also shocking that Travis Etienne Jr. — whom I expected to run all over the Jets — turned a four-target day into a three-touchdown afternoon. Etienne had three career touchdown receptions before Sunday.
For all this Jacksonville sunshine, we’ll have to be measured when we consider them at the Broncos next week. The Jaguars travel to Indianapolis in Week 17.
Looking at Some Other Booms
Do you ever notice how every Arizona game is always the same? It’s been the duplicate script since Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray. The Cardinals fall behind by multiple scores, then put up a bunch of points and yards in garbage time. I don’t mean this as some slight — Brissett is a professional quarterback and he’s helping his pass-catchers. It’s actually a glorious thing. Week 15 followed the playbook. The Texans rolled up a 30-7 lead late in the third period, and settled for a 40-20 win. Brissett did his thing — three touchdown passes, 249 yards. Trey McBride (12-134-2) continues to just annihilate the rest of the tight end board, and Michael Wilson (5-54-1) was useful despite tight coverage. Look for the Cardinals to keep playing the hits against the Falcons and Bengals.
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The Houston side of things had plenty of hits — C.J. Stroud threw for 260 yards and three scores, while Nico Collins (3-85-2) and Dalton Schultz (8-76-1) spread their wings. Woody Marks was probably looking at a big game before suffering an ankle injury. At least he snuck a short touchdown in the first half, picking up a wayward snap around the goal line and turning it into six points. Unknown Jawhar Jordan looked good after Marks left (15-101-0) and deserves waiver consideration moving forward. The Texans play the Raiders (lovely) and the Chargers (tricky) in the next two weeks.
Looking at Some of the Busts
Joe Burrow talked all week about not having any fun, and it sure didn’t look fun in the shutout loss at Baltimore. The Bengals managed a scant 4.2 yards per play and finished with 298 yards of offense. At least Burrow focused on Ja’Marr Chase (10-132-0, 16 targets) and Chase Brown (7-37-0, seven targets) when he threw the ball, so Chase and Brown had passable days (Brown also ran for 53 yards). But after having a whiff of Cincinnati optimism on Thanksgiving night, it’s evaporated now. No idea what version of this offense shows up in Miami next week.
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The Kansas City season had a jagged end, with a loss to the Chargers and a Patrick Mahomes knee injury in the fourth quarter. And the worst fear would come to pass — Mahomes is lost for the season with a torn ACL, and the Chiefs are eliminated from playoff contention. Mahomes did run for a touchdown but he threw for just 189 yards and no scores, hounded by an underrated Chargers defense (five sacks, one interception). At least 14 of the completions went to Travis Kelce (7-70-0) and Rashee Rice (7-51-0). Xavier Worthy was dinged up, which enabled Tyquan Thornton to make two late catches (2-47-0). I always wonder why the Chiefs don’t use Thornton more. Maybe he’ll get something going with Gardner Minshew down the stretch, if you play in an especially deep league.
The Chargers got their gutsy win but their offense didn’t have any fantasy winners. Omarion Hampton (15-61-0) and Kimani Vidal (12-33-0) both ran the ball plenty, and had one catch each. No touchdowns. Los Angeles tried to keep Justin Herbert out of harm’s way, though he was still sacked four times. Herbert finished with 210 passing yards and one touchdown, to fantasy unknown KeAndre Lambert-Smith. The Chargers will look to keep winning ugly against the Cowboys and Texans.