Week 15 was another winning week for us, as we went 9-7 against the spread. I still rank No. 1 on the website with a 124-99-1 record against the spread.
We never lost faith in the Buffalo Bills last week, even when they fell behind by 21 points in New England, and correctly predicted the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans would win by double digits. However, old man Philip Rivers cost us some money in his return to the field, and my patience with the Dallas Cowboys has clearly worn thin.
This week, I’m targeting a rematch in the NFC North, a showdown for the NFC South and Drake Maye vs. Lamar Jackson. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All Week 16 NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 37-37-1
Overall ATS record: 124-99-1
Straight up record: 152-71-1
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
This line was once Packers -1.5, then flipped to Bears -1.5, and is now again Packers -1.5. Chicago is riding high following the 31-3 victory over the Cleveland Browns — which was actually the Bears’ largest win in five years. The defense again stood out, forcing three turnovers. That brings their total takeaways to 30, which, of course, leads the NFL.
As for the Packers, they collapsed down the stretch in Denver, but also lost star pass rusher Micah Parsons for the season due to a torn ACL. This makes life easier on Caleb Williams, who has the second-best TD-INT ratio (41-12) in the NFL since 1970. I admit that the Bears being without Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III does give me some pause, but I’m going to roll with the home team.
The pick: Bears +1.5
Projected score: Bears 23-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
You have much better odds of winning the Powerball than of figuring out what the Panthers are going to look like on any given week. Seriously, Bryce Young could throw for 400 yards against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL, or look completely lost. Carolina really missed an opportunity last week, as the Panthers lost to the New Orleans Saints for the second time this season. Now, they host an angry Buccaneers team with the division on the line.
The Bucs have lost five out of their past six games, including that matchup against the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday, when the Bucs somehow lost despite leading by 14 points in the fourth quarter. The pass defense has struggled, as it allows a third-worst 246.9 passing yards per game. However, I’m going to take the Bucs in this matchup because Baker Mayfield has all of his playmakers back with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. In his last three road games, Mayfield is 3-0 with seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. Yes, the Panthers at home can be scary, but I believe the Buccaneers are the better team.
The pick: Buccaneers -3
Projected score: Buccaneers 26-20
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
This will not be one of the most-watched games in the NFL this week, but it may be my best bet of the week. I think the Saints are pretty underrated right now. They are coming off back-to-back upset victories over the Buccaneers and Panthers, while the Jets have been out-scored by 42 points in the last two weeks and are starting their third different quarterback of the season. The defense has forced just three turnovers all season, and the offense hasn’t been much more effective. Brady Cook threw for 176 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I don’t think the Jets are going to get a bump just because they fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Plus, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has looked solid. He completed 75% of his passes last week for 272 yards and one touchdown, and led a game-winning drive. We’ll see if Alvin Kamara returns this week, or who plays running back in general, but I like the Saints at home here. The Jets are 0-4 ATS on the road vs. rookie quarterbacks over the last five years.
The pick: Saints -5.5
Projected score: Saints 24-16
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Patriots had their 10-game win streak snapped by the Bills last week, as we predicted, but I’m coming right back around and taking the Patriots as underdogs this week. I think the Ravens’ win over the Cincinnati Bengals was more about Joe Burrow’s play. Plus, the Patriots are better than the Bengals at defending the run AND the pass.
Drake Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage and has plenty of weapons to utilize, while TreVeyon Henderson has four (4!) 50-yard rushing touchdowns this season. Despite what we saw in the second half last week, I have more faith in this Patriots offense than the Ravens offense right now. So yes, I’ll take New England +3. The Patriots are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven road games, while Maye is 3-0 SU and ATS in prime-time games. On the flip side, the Ravens are 5-9 ATS on the year, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL.
The pick: Patriots +3
Projected score: Patriots 28-21
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
I got owned by Grandpa Rivers last week, as he easily covered the 14-point spread against the Seattle Seahawks. But I’m ready to challenge him again with the 49ers coming to town. This bet is about the 49ers offense as much as it is the defense, making life tough on Rivers. I think it could be tough for the Colts defense to slow down Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings without starting cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward, plus defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
I think the environment at Lucas Oil Stadium is going to be awesome, and that the Colts do enough to keep the game within striking distance. However, I have the 49ers ultimately covering six points.
The pick: 49ers -6
Projected score: 49ers 24-16
Other Week 16 picks
Rams (+1.5) 24-20 over Seahawks
Eagles (-7) 28-20 over Commanders
Bills (-10.5) 24-13 over Browns
Chiefs (-3) 24-20 over Titans
Chargers (+1.5) 30-24 over Cowboys
Vikings (-3) 20-14 over Giants
Bengals (-4.5) 24-16 over Dolphins
Jaguars (+3) 27-23 over Broncos
Falcons 27-26 over Cardinals (+3)
Lions (-7) 30-20 over Steelers
Texans (-14.5) 30-10 over Raiders