The 2025-26 offseason has had moments in which it moved swiftly, such as the domino effect we saw early on with the high-leverage reliever market. But we’ve also seen it drag, and that’s the way things have been going the past few weeks. As we sit just days away from the new year, it’s the starting pitching market that’s moving significantly more slowly than the rest.
The night before Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays made the first big splash, signing right-hander Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal. Toronto later added right-hander Cody Ponce, who is returning to the States after a successful tenure in the KBO.
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But beyond Cease and Ponce, we’ve seen little movement for starting pitchers. Most of the notable starting pitching action so far has involved teams retaining their starters, with Shane Bieber opting in with the Blue Jays and Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff accepting qualifying offers from the Cubs and Brewers, respectively.
Two other names returning to their old stomping grounds are Michael King, who re-signed with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal, and Merrill Kelly, who returned to the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40 million deal.
But with just a few days left in December, the majority of the top starting pitchers in this free-agent class — names such as Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai — are still available. And while teams are interested and engaged with those players, they’re clearly taking their time.
The lack of movement in the starting pitching market could be due to a number of reasons.
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One is that teams want to exhaust all their options on the trade market before they make the financial commitment to acquire one of the top free-agent starters. If teams can move prospect capital to add someone such as Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera or Washington Nationals southpaw MacKenzie Gore instead of spending $100 million-$200 million to sign Suárez or Valdez, many will see that as a win.
We’ve already seen a few trades of this nature, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring Johan Oviedo and Sonny Gray, the Houston Astros acquiring Mike Burrows and the Baltimore Orioles paying a significant prospect price to acquire three years of Shane Baz.
Meanwhile, for the teams looking for the best of the best options, Tarik Skubal remains a tantalizing possibility. While the Tigers would demand a haul to move their ace, there’s no denying that any team with both the prospect capital and the starting pitching need would be very interested — even for a one-year rental.
The other factor hovering in the background of this year’s offseason is the uncertainty of what lies ahead after next season, with a potential lockout on the horizon once the collective bargaining agreement expires. With teams unsure of what the future holds, some might be trying to protect themselves by avoiding having too many multiyear deals on the books after 2026.
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Even so, the next starting pitching domino to fall will likely be Imai, whose posting window expires at 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 2. The 27-year-old right-hander from Japan is considered one of the best starters available, and his signing will likely spur some movement in the markets for Suárez and Valdez, as well as for others such as Gallen, Lucas Giolito and Nick Martinez.
Plenty of contending teams still need starting pitching, including the Cubs, Mets and Giants, so eventually this stalemate will end. As the calendar turns to January, especially with Imai’s deadline looming, expect the action on the starting pitching market to pick up.
After all, pitchers have only about seven weeks left before spring training begins.