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Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 17, which kicks off Thursday with a trio of Christmas contests.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
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DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are only provided for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for the games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night or Monday. For a closer look at the best values for Sunday’s main slate, you can also take a look at Week 17’s DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DAL-WAS | DET-MIN | DEN-KC | HOU-LAC | BAL-GB | ARI-CIN | PIT-CLE | NO-TEN
JAX-IND | TB-MIA | NE-NYJ| SEA-CAR| NYG-LV | PHI-BUF| CHI-SF | LAR-ATL
Projected Score: Cowboys 29, Commanders 20
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy Scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. returned from a one-game absence on Sunday and resumed duties as the team’s lead back. Rodriguez handled 15 carries and one target on 28 snaps, compared to one carry and three targets on 12 snaps for Jeremy McNichols and eight carries and zero targets on 11 snaps for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Rodriguez found the end zone for the fifth time in his past eight games and his fantasy point total (13.9) was his highest of the season. However, the veteran back remains a nonfactor in the passing game (12 yards on just three targets over 12 games), which has severely limited his fantasy appeal. He remains no more than a TD-dependent flex, even in a plus matchup against a Dallas defense that sits top-eight in yards, touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Shadow Report: Washington’s receivers should be upgraded against an injury-plagued and struggling Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the second most to the perimeter. Dallas has allowed the most yardage and touchdowns (26), and sits top-two in yards per target (9.7) and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Having Josh Johnson under center adds risk, but McLaurin should be in lineups and Deebo Samuel is on the WR3 radar.
Over/Under: 49.7 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 63% (8th highest)
Projected Score: Lions 24, Vikings 17
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams
Shadow Report: Downgrade Detroit’s receivers against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, both overall and to the perimeter this season. Minnesota has surrendered the second-fewest catches and sixth-fewest TDs (eight) to the position. After Giants receivers were limited to a total of 7.0 fantasy points against the Vikings on Sunday, only nine receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season. St. Brown and Williams remain lineup locks (the duo combined for 35.3 points in the Week 9 meeting), but there’s higher “bust risk” than usual.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Minnesota’s receivers against a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers, including the third most to the perimeter. The Lions have allowed the third-most yards and second-most TDs (20) to the position. An opposing receiver has reached 26.5 fantasy points against Detroit in four of the team’s past five games (Wan’Dale Robinson, Dontayvion Wicks, Ryan Flournoy, Puka Nacua). With Max Brosmer subbing in for injured J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson (85 yards on eight targets last week) is on the WR3 radar, whereas Jordan Addison is best left on benches, even in this plus matchup.
Over/Under: 40.9 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 55% (14th highest)
Projected Score: Broncos 23, Chiefs 18
Lineup locks: RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton
Fantasy Scoop: With Gardner Minshew set to join Patrick Mahomes on IR, Chris Oladokun is set to start at quarterback for the Chiefs. The 2022 seventh-round pick has hung around Kansas City in a developmental capacity in recent years, but all 16 of his career passing attempts came last week in relief of Minshew. The 28-year-old completed a solid 11 of those passes for 111 yards, but was also sacked four times.
Especially against a terrific Denver defense, Oladokun is certainly not a starting option in fantasy and his presence means we’re unlikely to get much from the team’s backs and pass catchers. That includes Travis Kelce, who was limited to 6 yards on four targets on Sunday and now has exactly one catch in two of his past three games. Kelce is a borderline starting option, at best. As for the team’s wide receivers …
Over/Under: 40.3 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 67% (4th highest)
Projected Score: Chargers 21, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Nico Collins
Fantasy Scoop: With Woody Marks sidelined last week, Houston’s running back deployment was as follows: Jawhar Jordan (28 snaps, 15 carries, 5 targets), Nick Chubb (20 snaps, 6 carries, 1 target) and Dare Ogunbowale (11 snaps, 1 carry, 1 target). Jordan — a 2024 sixth-round pick — was obviously very busy, though he didn’t move the needle a ton, totaling just 70 yards on 20 touches (Chubb had 42 yards on just seven touches).
If Marks returns this week, he’ll be no more than a flex option in a hard matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to backs over the past eight weeks. If Marks remains out, Jordan will make for an uninspiring flex option in this matchup, especially with Chubb and Ogunbowale also ticketed for a role.
Shadow Report: Texans receivers should be downgraded against a Chargers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the second fewest to the perimeter. The Chargers have surrendered only eight TDs to the position, as well as the fifth-lowest yards per target (7.0) and fourth-lowest catch rate (59%). Only two receivers (Pickens, A.J. Brown) have reached 12.5 fantasy points against the Chargers since Week 9. Collins remains a lineup lock, but the team’s secondary receivers do not make for viable Week 17 WR3/flex streamers.
Shadow Report: Quentin Johnston is a candidate to draw shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. Stingley hasn’t needed to travel since Week 9, but he has done so this season against top perimeter receivers, including Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and Sutton. Johnston has been inconsistent, but he’s the team’s clear No. 1 outside receiver and he is coming off a strong performance (4-104-1 on five targets).
Even if Stingley doesn’t shadow, this is a tough assignment for Chargers receivers. The Texans have allowed eight TDs, the lowest catch rate (54%) and second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only six receivers have reached 13 points against them and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Nacua. The Los Angeles receiver room is best avoided this week.
Over/Under: 41.1 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 56% (13th highest)
Projected Score: Packers 25, Ravens 21
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
Fantasy Scoop: Romeo Doubs exploded for 84 yards, one touchdown and 19.4 fantasy points against the Bears on Saturday. Despite the strong showing, Doubs remains a risky fantasy option. The veteran receiver was limited to six targets in the game, which was actually a step up after he was held to four-or-fewer looks in his prior four games. In fact, before Saturday, Doubs had been held to 12.0 or fewer fantasy points in six consecutive games, averaging 5.5 per game during the span. Green Bay continues to spread the ball around, which makes Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed nothing more than flex lottery tickets. Even with a good matchup against Baltimore, the trio is ideally avoided here.
Over/Under: 46.2 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 65% (6th highest)
Projected Score: Bengals 27, Cardinals 24
Lineup locks: Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Tee Higgins, Trey McBride
Fantasy Scoop: With Bam Knight done for the season, it was Michael Carter who took over as Arizona’s lead back last Sunday. Carter soaked up 11 carries and a pair of targets on 30 snaps, compared to five carries and one target on 17 snaps for Emari Demercado and six carries and zero targets on nine snaps for Corey Kiner. The overall ground game was effective (combined 127 yards on 22 carries), but none of the backs found the end zone, caught a pass or cleared 6.5 fantasy points. We should expect Carter to continue leading the committee, which positions him as a flex option against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most yards and fantasy points, as well as the second-most touchdowns (20), to running backs this season.
Shadow Report: Marvin Harrison Jr. is a candidate to see DJ Turner shadow coverage this week. Turner has shadowed often this season and has done very well in those spots. The 12 receivers he has shadowed have averaged 8.4 fantasy PPG, with only two reaching 13 points. After a slow start, the Bengals have also shown well against receivers overall, having allowed them the fourth-fewest fantasy points. Only seven receivers have reached 16.0 fantasy points against the Bengals this season and five of them came prior to Week 6. Downgrade the Arizona passing game, especially Harrison.
Over/Under: 50.2 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 61% (10th highest)
Projected Score: Steelers 22, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Kenneth Gainwell, Harold Fannin Jr.
Fantasy Scoop: Quinshon Judkins (leg) is done for the season. The identity of his replacement will depend on health, as fellow rookie Dylan Sampson is the logical fill in but he has missed the past two games with a hand injury. Following Judkins’ departure on Sunday, Trayveon Williams (three carries and four targets on 20 snaps in the game) and Raheim Sanders (11 carries and one target on 19 snaps) held it down. Sanders (46 yards on 12 touches) was the lead ball carrier, with Williams (55 yards on seven touches) the preferred passing-game option.
If Sampson remains out, the two would likely play the same roles and would be best left on benches against a Steelers defense that has allowed only seven touchdowns to backs this season. If Sampson returns, he’ll be worth considering as a flex dart throw. He started for Cleveland when Judkins was out in Week 1 and, while he didn’t do much on the ground (29 yards on 12 carries), he did add 64 yards on eight targets.
Over/Under: 38.9 (Lowest)
Win Probability: Steelers 66% (5th highest)
Projected Score: Saints 20, Titans 19
Lineup locks: Chris Olave
Fantasy Scoop: With Devin Neal (IR) out of the mix last week, the Saints turned to a backfield committee led by Taysom Hill. Hill had a busy afternoon as a passer (38-yard TD on his lone attempt), rusher (42 yards on a team-high 12 carries) and receiver (a 6-4-36-0 receiving line). Hill played 34 snaps, which trailed Audric Estime (44), though Estime registered only 36 yards on eight touches (Evan Hull played 16 snaps and totaled 3 yards on five touches). Hill’s heavy utilization and TE eligibility is enough to place him on the TE1 radar this week, assuming Alvin Kamara remains out. There’s obvious risk here considering Hill has cleared 6.1 fantasy points in just one of 11 games this season, but he also wasn’t tasked with such a hefty role prior to Sunday.
Over/Under: 39.4 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 53% (15th highest)
Projected Score: Jaguars 27, Colts 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyers
Fantasy Scoop: Parker Washington exploded for career highs in yardage (145) and fantasy points (26.5) while also finding the end zone against the Broncos on Sunday. Washington has now hit for 17-plus fantasy points in four of his past seven games, though he has fallen short of 9.0 points in the other three games. Washington took advantage of Pat Surtain II (who shadowed Brian Thomas Jr.) and Riley Moss (mainly on Meyers) keeping a lid on the team’s top two receivers, with the duo combining for only 63 yards on 11 targets.
That’s unlikely to be a trend moving forward, especially considering that Washington totaled 79 yards on seven targets during his first two games with Thomas and Meyers (Weeks 13 and 15). The Colts present a good matchup (they’ve allowed the most catches and third-most fantasy points to receivers) but, whereas Meyers remains a fringe WR2 and Thomas a WR3/flex, Washington is best left on benches and is no more than a lottery ticket flex in deep leagues.
Over/Under: 47.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 72% (3rd highest)
Projected Score: Dolphins 22, Buccaneers 22
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy Scoop: Quinn Ewers made his first NFL start on Sunday. The bad news is Miami lost 45-21 and Ewers was held to zero TDs, two INTs and 6.9 fantasy points. The good news is he completed 67% of his passes and racked up a healthy 260 passing yards on 30 attempts (8.7 YPA). Miami’s offense was effective enough to allow a strong showing from Achane (18.0 fantasy points), as well as solid production from Jaylen Wright (12.3), Waddle (12.2) and Malik Washington (10.2).
Granted, the game was against one of the league’s shakiest defenses (Bengals), but Week 17 presents a matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has been very generous in fantasy. Achane remains a lineup lock, as does Waddle, who put up 72 yards on nine targets (31% team share) in Ewers’ debut. Darren Waller (3-40-0 on five targets last week) is a deep-league streaming option against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 10 touchdowns and the seventh-most TE fantasy points.
Over/Under: 43.9 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 52% (Lowest)
Projected Score: Patriots 29, Jets 16
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy Scoop: Brady Cook has handled a majority of the Jets’ quarterback snaps in three straight games and the results have not been very good. Cook has attempted 30-35 passes in each game, but has been in the 163-188 passing yardage range in all three, with a total of just one touchdown pass and six INTs while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. The offensive struggles have crushed the fantasy output of the team’s skill players, as Adonai Mitchell’s 17.4 points in Week 15 was the only instance of a Jets player clearing 13.5 points during the three games.
That drought includes Breece Hall, who has managed a mere 143 yards and zero touchdowns on 46 touches during the span (6.1 PPG), and is no more than a fringe RB2 against a Patriots defense that has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry (3.9) and third-fewest fantasy points to backs this season. No other Jets should be in lineups, with Mitchell the closest to flex value.
Over/Under: 44.8 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 91% (Highest)
Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy Scoop: Kenneth Walker III is fresh off his best fantasy outing of the season, having totaled 164 yards and one TD on 14 touches. Walker’s 25.4 fantasy points bring him to four games with 18-plus points this season, though he has been held to 13.1 or fewer in each of his other 11 games (7.7 average). Walker remains in a full-on committee with Zach Charbonnet, which has limited him to 12.7 carries and 2.1 targets per game.
Charbonnet has operated as the primary goal line back, which has helped him to nine touchdowns and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to three TDs and five carries inside the 5 for Walker. Walker’s role breeds inconsistent fantasy output, but the good news is a plus matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (sixth highest) and the eighth-most fantasy points to backs. Walker is on the RB2 radar.
Shadow Report: Tetairoa McMillan and Carolina’s other receivers should be downgraded against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but more notably the fourth-fewest points to the perimeter (McMillan aligns on the perimeter 80% of the time). Even after last week’s rough showing against Nacua, the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (6.4) and third-lowest catch rate (57%) to receivers. Only two wideouts have reached 15 fantasy points against them since Week 7. Nacua’s big game gives McMillan some hope for a few splash plays, but expectations should be held in check.
Over/Under: 44.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (7th highest)
Projected Score: Giants 23, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Wan’Dale Robinson
Fantasy Scoop: When Jaxson Dart retires some day, Week 16 of the 2025 season may go down as the least productive game of his NFL career. The rookie played the entire game, but was held to 7-of-13 for 33 yards, zero TDs and one INT, adding only 7 yards on two carries. Dart finished with 0.02 fantasy points after averaging 21.8 during his first nine starts.
The dud is alarming and makes him a risky play here in Week 17, but it’s worth noting it came against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. Life should be a bit easier this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed the sixth-highest EPA to opposing passing games. Dart remains in the QB1 discussion, as his entire body of work has been exceptional from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s no longer a safe starting option.
Over/Under: 43.5 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 62% (9th highest)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Eagles 24
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, James Cook III, A.J. Brown
Shadow Report: Downgrade Buffalo’s receivers against a Philadelphia defense that has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to receivers over the past eight weeks. During that span, Philadelphia has allowed the third-fewest points to the perimeter and the second fewest to the slot. Incredibly, only three receivers (Lamb, Pickens, Jameson Williams) have reached 8.5 fantasy points against them during those eight games. The Eagles have allowed the fewest touchdowns (six) and second-lowest catch rate (55%) to the position on the season. We’re already avoiding Bills receivers for the most part, but this suggests Khalil Shakir is a poor Week 17 streaming option.
Shadow Report: Brown is likely to draw shadow coverage from Christian Benford this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), McMillan (16.9), Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0), Collins (8.5), DK Metcalf (6.2) and Chase (9.4) on their perimeter routes this season. The nine wide receivers averaged 13.1 fantasy points, though four straight have been held to single digits. Brown is red-hot (21.4 fantasy PPG in his past five outings), so he remains a lineup lock, but his bust risk is higher than usual.
Over/Under: 49.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 58% (12th highest)
Projected Score: 49ers 29, Bears 26
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, D’Andre Swift, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Fantasy Scoop: It was dicey throughout most of the game, but Caleb Williams came through with 21.0 fantasy points against Green Bay on Saturday and now has 19-plus fantasy points in two straight and in eight of 15 games this season. Williams has certainly mixed in his share of duds (below 12 points in five games), but he has earned his spot in the weekly back-end QB1 mix, ranking top-10 among quarterbacks in passing yards, passing TDs, carries, rushing yards and, of course, fantasy points. This week, Williams draws a 49ers defense that has allowed 27 passing scores (sixth most) and that has the fewest sacks (18) this season. Williams is what he has been most weeks: a fringe QB1.
Over/Under: 54.9 (Highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 58% (11th highest)
Projected Score: Rams 30, Falcons 22
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Shadow Report: London may draw some level of shadow coverage from Emmanuel Forbes Jr. this week, though we’re not too worried considering Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the most over the past four weeks. London aligns out wide 67% of the time and the Rams have surrendered the third-most points to the perimeter over the past month. Over their past three games, the Rams have allowed 23-plus fantasy points to four different receivers. We can’t trust any other Atlanta receivers, but London can be upgraded.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Rams receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks, including the second most to the perimeter. The Falcons have allowed 18 touchdowns to receivers (fourth most) and McMillan, Smith-Njigba and Mitchell have each cleared 24 points against them since Week 11. Nacua is positioned for another elite game and, with Davante Adams still out, Konata Mumpfield is a Week 17 deep sleeper.
Over/Under: 51.9 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Rams 79% (2nd highest)