Making tough lineup decisions every week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (versus Tennessee Titans). He’s the hottest player in fantasy, the only one to score 19-plus points in each of the past five weeks and the league’s leading scorer during that time (139.6 total), and he and his Jaguars have plenty at stake. They have the widest prospective seeding disparity of any team, with a chance to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed (and an opening-week bye), but also the risk to fall as low as No. 7. Fortunately, Lawrence’s matchup is outstanding, as the opposing Titans have surrendered a league-leading four games of 20-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past five weeks.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (versus Miami Dolphins). Motivation is at least as important as matchup for Week 18, but Henderson is one of the rare running backs with check marks in both columns. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel has indicated he’ll play his starters in pursuit of the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Dolphins have been the No. 20 schedule-adjusted defense against running backs for the season (0.7 Adjusted FPA). The Dolphins have also surrendered the league’s fifth-highest explosive play rate to the position (12.1%), which plays well to Henderson’s speed and breakaway ability.
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Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (at Chicago Bears). The Lions might be playing merely for pride, but Williams generally brings his best to these divisional affairs, especially this one against his former coordinator, Ben Johnson. Williams has exceeded 100 yards receiving with a touchdown in each of his past two games against the Bears, the league’s third-worst schedule adjusted defense against wide receivers for the season (3.9 Adjusted FPA) and the past five weeks. The Bears are especially susceptible to the deep pass (20-plus yards downfield), an area of strength for Williams, allowing the third-most passing plays of 20-plus yards (57).
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Tight ends
Matchups highlight: AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks (at San Francisco 49ers, Saturday 8 p.m. ET). Saturday’s showdown for both the NFC West crown and the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed entered the week with the third-highest over/under (49.5 points), so you can be sure there’ll be firepower involved with these offenses. Barner has been a bigger part of the Seahawks’ passing game than fantasy managers give him credit for, ranking 11th in red zone targets (12), 13th in fantasy points (143.9) and 16th in team target share (15.2%) among tight ends. The 49ers, meanwhile, have seen five tight ends exceed 11 fantasy points in their past seven games.
Another to like: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Washington Commanders).