Caley’s prediction: While Mississippi may not come away with an upset victory in the Sugar Bowl, QB Trinidad Chambliss will keep the Rebels close against Georgia.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Trinidad Chambliss and Gunner Stockton headline tonight’s action at Caesars Superdome.
The New Year’s Day College Football Playoff tripleheader comes to a close as the Mississippi Rebels face the Georgia Bulldogs.
Tonight’s matchup is a rematch of a regular-season instant classic, one Georgia won behind a stunning fourth-quarter comeback. Ole Miss hasn’t lost since, however, and even without Lane Kiffin on the sideline, I expect the Rebels to keep things close on Thursday, January 1.
My Mississippi vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks break down the matchup and deliver the best bets for the Sugar Bowl.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, with the game airing on ESPN.
Mississippi vs Georgia predictions for the Sugar Bowl CFP Quarterfinal
Who will win the Sugar Bowl?
This will be a close game, but Georgia will come out on top.
Kirby Smart and the Dawgs’ big-game experience will be the difference at the end of the day.
Well, that and that relentless Georgia rushing attack.
Mississippi vs Georgia best bet: Mississippi +6.5 (-110)
The Mississippi Rebels passed their first test without Lane Kiffin with flying colors, absolutely crushing the Tulane Green Wave 41-10 in the first round of the College Football Playoff. But their first real challenge comes in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day against their SEC rivals, the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs were the last team to defeat the Rebels, winning an epic comeback 43-35 on October 18, in a game that saw Georgia outscore Mississippi 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
Now, Georgia has won nine in a row, which includes avenging its lone loss of the season by defeating rival Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in dominant fashion.
But while the Bulldogs are rolling, it doesn’t mean they aren’t vulnerable. This isn’t the Georgia team of years past, which had historically good defenses. The Dawgs are good, just not great. And good passing teams have been a problem.
Georgia ranks 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 63rd in opponent points per quality drive. And led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels are a quality offense.
Chambliss didn’t begin the season as Mississippi’s starter, but he’s left no doubt about who’s the man since taking over. The Rebels rank ninth in EPA per play and 15th in offensive success rate and are seventh in both EPA and success rate on dropbacks.
But what makes this Mississippi offense more of a problem for Georgia than, say, Alabama, is its balance.
With star running back Kewan Lacy complementing Chambliss, the Rebels can be hard for anyone to slow down, especially with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. staying with the team.
Georgia’s still a very good team and has the edge in big-game coaching and experience. And while that could be the difference in who wins the Sugar Bowl, Mississippi will make the Bulldogs work for it and keep this game close.
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Mississippi vs Georgia same-game parlay
With Chambliss being the key to the outcome of the Sugar Bowl, it only makes sense that he is the focus of this SGP.
In 11 games as the starter, Chambliss threw for 3,239 yards with 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He also added 485 yards and another eight scores on the ground. In the last meeting against Georgia, he threw for 263 yards and two TDs, rushed for 42 yards, and scored two more TDs.
His dynamic ability is a problem for anyone to stop. So, let’s go Over 247.5 passing yards, which he has done in 10 of his 11 starts, and add him to score an anytime touchdown.
Mississippi vs Georgia SGP (+549)
- Mississippi +6.5
- Trinidad Chambliss Over 247.5 passing yards
- Trinidad Chambliss anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Chamblissfully Yours
To turn this into a deep-ball SGP, let’s back Chambliss to find the end zone not just once, but multiple times in the Sugar Bowl.
Mississippi vs Georgia SGP (+2372)
- Mississippi +6.5
- Trinidad Chambliss Over 247.5 passing yards
- Trinidad Chambliss to score 2+ touchdowns
Mississippi vs Georgia game predictions
Mississippi vs Georgia spread prediction
Mississippi will keep this game close thanks to its balanced offense, featuring a dynamic backfield led by Chambliss and Lacy.
Georgia has had its issues against good passers, and that balance will make it even more difficult to slow the Rebels down.
Mississippi vs Georgia Over/Under prediction
There are some very talented offensive players in this game, but this total is a touch too high.
These are two strong defensive teams that are both in the Top 30 when it comes to opponent EPA per play.
Mississippi vs Georgia odds
- Spread: Mississippi +6.5 (-110) | Georgia -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi +190 | Georgia -230
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
Mississippi vs Georgia trend to know
Mississippi has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Georgia.
How to watch Mississippi vs Georgia
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Thursday, January 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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