NBA Power Rankings: Timberwolves are contenders; preseason over/under check-in

Album of the Week: “Business As Usual,” Men At Work (1981)

Everyone is back to work now, so we can get on with the nasty part of winter. Low temperatures, high winds; the snow isn’t nice to look at anymore; and flaking has extended past the precipitation and onto those plans you had at the end of the week. It’s my least favorite time of the year.

Fortunately, there’s basketball. And not just the trades (although some of you finally were placated there)! The season has not yet reached its midpoint, but this week, we’ll check in on those preseason over/unders from BetMGM (you know, the conventional expectations, not the deep shots I put out in Week 1).

This week marks a return to a full national television schedule as well. Make that international, with the Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies discussing the Desmond Bane trade in Europe. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to show that maybe they can beat the San Antonio Spurs this week, while the Golden State Warriors get a couple of notable home games.

Fine print: These Power Rankings won’t just rank every team. We’ll retain the tiers that teams will be promoted into and relegated out of. There will be five tiers each week:

• Top Contenders – Locked at five, these are the class of the league
• In a Good Place – Could be one team, could be seven teams
• The Bubble – Not to be confused with Walt Disney World. The middle of the pack
• Not the Tier to Fear – Not playing the worst ball in the league, but with a lot of work to do
• Basement Floor – Bringing up the rear

What to expect from Power Rankings:

• These are my subjective rankings. I will consider a variety of objective measures, but it’s my final call.
• These rankings are not just a review of the past week — we are projecting forward as well, so it is a balance of the two.
• These are subjective, but not biased. There are no agendas in the Power Rankings, and we strive for an inclusive meritocracy
• The one quality that these rankings possess: “Ruthless aggression.”
• Enjoy the games, and enjoy the rankings, please!

For Week 13 of The Athletic NBA Power Rankings, we will revisit preseason over/unders for each team. Win-loss records and other statistical data are through Sunday’s action.

---

Tier 1: Top Contenders

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7)

Last ranking: 1
In the last week: L vs CHA, W vs UTA, W at MEM, W vs MIA
Offensive rating: 118.0 (fifth place)
Defensive rating: 105.4 (first place)

Preseason win total: 62.5
On pace to win: 68

The Thunder starting 24-1 led to some loud conversations going into the NBA Cup. Now, the Thunder lose every week, so we don’t have to discuss them as a 70-win threat anymore. That being said, they’re still the best team in the league and ahead of the consensus from Vegas by a decent margin. This week would be a good time to finally beat Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs, though.

2. Detroit Pistons (28-10)

Last ranking: 2
In the last week: W vs NY, W vs CHI, L vs LAC
Offensive rating: 116.4 (ninth place)
Defensive rating: 109.7 (second place)

Preseason win total: 46.5
On pace to win: 60

The Pistons looked as if they were going to close an impressive week undefeated, but they weren’t able to hold onto a double-digit fourth-quarter lead against the Clippers while extremely short-handed. Nevertheless, Detroit made its statements by embarrassing a Knicks team that ended its season last spring while flexing its depth against the Bulls. The path to the Eastern Conference’s top seed is very clear for a complementary Pistons team that is blowing through their preseason expectations for a second straight season, but do they cash in some of that depth for another difference-maker?

3. San Antonio Spurs (27-12)

Last ranking: 3
In the last week: L at MEM, W vs LAL, W at BOS, L at MIN
Offensive rating: 116.6 (eighth place)
Defensive rating: 111.2 (third place)

Preseason win total: 44.5
On pace to win: 57

It was easy to be optimistic about the Spurs entering this season. But they are well ahead of schedule, as they are one of the best defenses in the league and have schooled the defending champion Thunder like no team has done. The Spurs haven’t been too sharp since the last time they beat Oklahoma City, going 4-5 since Christmas.

4. Denver Nuggets (26-13)

Last ranking: 6
In the last week: W at PHI, W at BOS, L vs ATL, W vs MIL
Offensive rating: 122.1 (first place)
Defensive rating: 116.8 (23rd place)

Preseason win total: 53.5
On pace to win: 55

Denver only has 10 games played this season with the foursome of Nikola Jokić, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and newcomer Cameron Johnson. All four players are dealing with or are just now returning from multi-week injuries. And yet, not only are the Nuggets slightly exceeding expectations, but they have the NBA’s best offense. Denver has done well to survive Jokić’s knee injury so far to go 4-3, and while Jamal Murray has been fantastic, the Nuggets scooped multiple wins this week without Murray as well.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (26-14)

Last ranking: 9
In the last week: W vs MIA, W vs CLE, L at CLE, W vs SA
Offensive rating: 117.2 (sixth place)
Defensive rating: 112.6 (seventh place)

Preseason win total: 49.5
On pace to win: 53

The Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference finals, and they are exceeding expectations slightly to begin this season. They’re starting to compile wins against teams better than .500, including Sunday’s comeback against the Spurs. They’re one of five teams ranked in the top 10 on both ends of the floor, and they’re good in clutch time as well.

Tier 2: In a Good Place

6. Boston Celtics (24-14)

Last ranking: 4
In the last week: W vs CHI, L vs DEN, W vs TOR, L vs SA
Offensive rating: 121.9 (second place)
Defensive rating: 114.5 (16th place)

Preseason win total: 41.5
On pace to win: 52

Everyone expected the Celtics to slip some this season to various degrees. Boston isn’t at the very top of the East, but it has exceeded expectations besides that. The Celtics are coming off an uneven week, and Jaylen Brown followed up his 50-point game at the Clippers by shooting 38.5 percent from the field and averaging 4.8 turnovers per game while Boston split its four-game homestand, asking for a fine by the end of the weekend.

7. Phoenix Suns (24-15)

Last ranking: 7
In the last week: L at HOU, W at MEM, W vs NY, W vs WAS
Offensive rating: 114.6 (14th place)
Defensive rating: 111.9 (fifth place)

Preseason win total: 30.5
On pace to win: 50

Phoenix is by far the biggest surprise in the NBA and a team that mirrors last season’s Clippers in more than one way. The Suns were outright bad last season with theoretical top-end talent, and they went through some addition by subtraction, though Kevin Durant reminded them that they still don’t have him. Even with Jalen Green playing all of five quarters so far this season, the Suns have survived on offense while getting back to Monty Williams era defensive outputs. Devin Booker has held it down without Green, but Booker can use Green to relieve pressure, just as James Harden needed Kawhi Leonard’s return around this time last year in LA.

8. New York Knicks (25-14)

Last ranking: 8
In the last week: L at DET, W vs LAC, L at PHO, W at POR
Offensive rating: 120.3 (third place)
Defensive rating: 115.8 (18th place)

Preseason win total: 53.5
On pace to win: 53

The Knicks are fine. They’re about where they were expected to be. But that also means that they’re not doing a whole lot to exceed expectations either. And they’re the latest team to be somewhat hungover from the NBA Cup, going 7-7 since leaving Las Vegas. The 2024 Lakers went 10-16 immediately after winning the NBA Cup, while last season’s Bucks went 3-5 before straightening out. The good thing for New York is that it won’t have another road trip as long as its current western swing until early March.

Tier 3: The Bubble

9. Houston Rockets (22-14)

Last ranking: 5
In the last week: W vs PHO, L at POR, L at POR, L at SAC
Offensive rating: 119.8 (fourth place)
Defensive rating: 112.6 (eighth place)

Preseason win total: 52.5
On pace to win: 50

Just add Durant to a top defense, and that fixes everything … right? It seems like the absence of Fred VanVleet is stressing Houston out even more than expected, and it will be interesting to see if Houston makes a trade to give Durant some relief. Ime Udoka has found something to call out the Rockets for on an increasing basis, but he’s Captain Obvious when discussing how unwise it is to have to play the 37-year-old Durant as many minutes as Durant is getting at his age.

10. Cleveland Cavaliers (22-18)

Last ranking: 13
In the last week: W at IND, L at MIN, W vs MIN
Offensive rating: 116.8 (seventh place)
Defensive rating: 114.3 (15th place)

Preseason win total: 56.5
On pace to win: 45.1

Last season was special for the Cavaliers, and some regression toward the pack was expected. But they are right in the middle of the pack now despite a special season from Donovan Mitchell. Cleveland split its home-and-home with the Timberwolves and will hope to build off the offensive momentum that saw it score at least 120 points in all three games this week.

11. Los Angeles Lakers (23-13)

Last ranking: 10
In the last week: W at NO, L at SA, L vs MIL
Offensive rating: 116.1 (11th place)
Defensive rating: 116.8 (24th place)

Preseason win total: 46.5
On pace to win: 52

Congratulations to the Lakers, who showed that they are capable of not getting blown out when they lose. That’s the positive spin for the Lakers becoming the final team to lose a clutch-time game this season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo making big plays against LeBron James, leaving James to complain about the officiating for the first time all season. The sparkling record in clutch time has the Lakers in a comfortable spot in the standings and exceeding preseason expectations, but if the clutch-time results regress toward the mean, then they are going to be sweating.

12. Toronto Raptors (24-16)

Last ranking: 11
In the last week: W vs ATL, W at CHA, L at BOS, W vs PHI
Offensive rating: 113.9 (19th place)
Defensive rating: 112.1 (sixth place)

Preseason win total: 39.5
On pace to win: 49

The Raptors are 16-7 with RJ Barrett and 8-9 without him, barely holding onto a win against the Philadelphia 76ers after blowing a 14-point lead. Toronto has only outscored foes by seven points in the 363 minutes this season when Barrett shares the floor with Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. But the rest of the 1,572 minutes when those three aren’t on the floor together have seen Toronto outscore opponents by 68 points. Darko Rajaković has done a solid job using his depth and defense around his top players.

13. Philadelphia 76ers (21-16)

Last ranking: 14
In the last week: L vs DEN, W vs WAS, W at ORL, L at TOR
Offensive rating: 114.8 (13th place)
Defensive rating: 113.1 (11th place)

Preseason win total: 43.5
On pace to win: 47

Philadelphia was set to bounce back after last season’s disastrous season, and it’s done that to this point. The Sixers still have too many games where it makes them hard to trust. Last Monday’s home loss to a road-weary, short-handed Nuggets team was a missed opportunity, especially with Philadelphia at full strength. And Tyrese Maxey is still carrying a heavy load for this team as well. I don’t want to think about where the Sixers would be if Maxey had to miss the kind of time that Joel Embiid and Paul George miss.

14. Golden State Warriors (21-19)

Last ranking: 15
In the last week: L at LAC, W vs MIL, W vs SAC, L vs ATL
Offensive rating: 114.5 (15th place)
Defensive rating: 112.6 (ninth place)

Preseason win total: 47.5
On pace to win: 43

The Warriors split their games this week in a season where they have basically split their games. Golden State doesn’t have a single streak of at least four wins or four losses. The Warriors are comfortably uncomfortable, smack dab in the middle of the West. Only five teams have more clutch-time losses than the Warriors, and if they were just average in clutch time, then they would be right at their preseason expectation win total. Golden State is certainly underachieving, but like last season, don’t be surprised if it improves once it makes a trade. And this is like a holiday for some, as Jonathan Kuminga can be traded as early as Thursday.

15. Orlando Magic (22-18)

Last ranking: 16
In the last week: L at WAS, W at BRK, L vs PHI, W vs NO
Offensive rating: 114.4 (16th place)
Defensive rating: 113.4 (12th place)

Preseason win total: 51.5
On pace to win: 45

This was supposed to be the season that the Magic came of age. The false starts have held Orlando back, although the hope remains that the Magic can get more minutes out of their four highest-paid players. The Magic have played only 11 games this season with all four of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane. I’d expect the Magic to be better in the second half of the season than they have shown so far.

16. Miami Heat (20-19)

Last ranking: 12
In the last week: L at MIN, PPD at CHI, L at IND, L at OKC
Offensive rating: 113.2 (22nd place)
Defensive rating: 111.9 (fourth place)

Preseason win total: 37.5
On pace to win: 42

Not a good week for Miami, right down to warming up for a game in Chicago just to have it postponed. The Heat have now had four winning streaks this season of at least three games, and they have had three losing streaks this season of at least three games. Miami’s attempt at reconfiguring its identity was an admirable one, but it’s still an average team in the East. Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are an awkward fit together, particularly when those two aren’t playing with Davion Mitchell.

Tier 4: Not the Tier to Fear

17. Atlanta Hawks (20-21)

Last ranking: 18
In the last week: L at TOR, W vs NO, W at DEN, W at GS
Offensive rating: 114.2 (17th place)
Defensive rating: 114.2 (14th place)

Preseason win total: 47.5
On pace to win: 40

I thought the Hawks would have a great season with Trae Young playing alongside Kristaps Porziņģis. Those two wound up playing a total of 51 minutes together, and the Hawks gave up 157 points in those 51 minutes. Atlanta was awful with Young on the floor this season and has broken up his contract between contract-year CJ McCollum (who debuted off the bench) and 3-point shooter Corey Kispert. It makes sense for Atlanta to continue shopping around its roster.

18. Memphis Grizzlies (17-22)

Last ranking: 19
In the last week: W vs SA, L vs PHO, L vs OKC, W vs BRK
Offensive rating: 112.6 (24th place)
Defensive rating: 114.0 (13th place)

Preseason win total: 39.5
On pace to win: 36

I expect three things out of the Grizzlies these days: They will go up big against the Thunder, they will blow the lead and Ja Morant won’t be on the floor. This is also the worst the partnership on the floor has ever been for Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., as the Grizzlies are a paltry 6-12 in games when they play together. Memphis is actually a winning team this season when those two don’t play together, but that’s not ideal considering those two players make more than $70 million this season.

19. Milwaukee Bucks (17-22)

Last ranking: 20
In the last week: L at GS, W at LAL, L at DEN
Offensive rating: 113.5 (20th place)
Defensive rating: 115.7 (17th place)

Preseason win total: 43.5
On pace to win: 36

The Bucks were expected to take a step back this season, but the consensus from Vegas was that they would still be a winning team. They are not a winning team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is to the 2026 Bucks what Kevin Durant was to the 2025 Suns. Now, the relationship is stronger between Milwaukee and its franchise player than whatever Phoenix had with Durant. The comparison is just a matter of wins and losses; the Bucks are 14-11 when Antetokounmpo plays and 3-12 when he doesn’t.

20. LA Clippers (15-23)

Last ranking: 21
In the last week: W vs GS, L at NY, W at BRK, W at DET
Offensive rating: 115.3 (12th place)
Defensive rating: 116.9 (26th place)

Preseason win total: 49.5
On pace to win: 32

Many people reacted to LA’s 6-21 start as if that was the Clippers team everyone expected to see. That was always cap, but people wanted to see the Clippers fail this season for a variety of reasons. Those doubters were validated accordingly. LA has started to play like a team that still had a high-performing Kawhi Leonard and James Harden for a few weeks now, but their chances of meeting regular-season expectations are quite remote at this point.

21. Portland Trail Blazers (19-21)

Last ranking: 22
In the last week: W vs UTA, W vs HOU, W vs HOU, L vs NY
Offensive rating: 113.5 (21st place)
Defensive rating: 116.0 (19th place)

Preseason win total: 35.5
On pace to win: 39

Portland couldn’t beat the Knicks and extend a season-long win streak that was snapped at five games, denying the Trail Blazers a chance to reach .500. But all is not lost. Point guard Jrue Holiday finally returned to the lineup after being out for nearly two months because of a calf ailment, while Deni Avdija has upset defenders so much that he’s had to address his ability to get to the free-throw line at a high rate.

22. Charlotte Hornets (14-25)

Last ranking: 24
In the last week: W at OKC, L vs TOR, L vs IND, W at UTA
Offensive rating: 116.2 (10th place)
Defensive rating: 116.4 (21st place)

Preseason win total: 27.5
On pace to win: 29

Overall, the Hornets are about where they were expected to be. But of their 14 wins, Charlotte has won five games by more than 20 points, including a crushing of the defending champions and a 55-point demolition of Utah. The Hornets won only four games in all of the previous three seasons by more than 20 points. When this team clicks, it can be devastating because of the scoring talent.

23. Chicago Bulls (18-20)

Last ranking: 17
In the last week: L at BOS, L at DET, PPD vs MIA, W vs DAL
Offensive rating: 113.2 (23rd place)
Defensive rating: 116.9 (25th place)

Preseason win total: 33.5
On pace to win: 39

Chicago’s commitment to mid has led it to exceed its low preseason expectations. That’s what it’s come to for the Bulls these days: Backhanded compliments because the roster is uninspiring and because they can’t sustain the success they do have for long enough.

24. Dallas Mavericks (14-25)

Last ranking: 23
In the last week: W at SAC, L at UTA, L at CHI
Offensive rating: 109.0 (28th place)
Defensive rating: 112.8 (10th place)

Preseason win total: 41.5
On pace to win: 29

Vegas and the national broadcasters were on NicoVision when it came to projecting this Mavericks team. Some even thought Kyrie Irving would be back by now. Alas, here the Mavericks are, with their injury-prone big men out of commission, top free-agent acquisition D’Angelo Russell playing zero 20-minute games since Thanksgiving and Cooper Flagg splitting awesome games with forgettable outings.

25. Brooklyn Nets (11-25)

Last ranking: 25
In the last week: L vs ORL, L vs LAC, L at MEM
Offensive rating: 111.9 (25th place)
Defensive rating: 116.5 (22nd place)

Preseason win total: 19.5
On pace to win: 25

I don’t intend to be rude, but the Nets are 3-12 when Cam Thomas has played this season. That’s a 16-win pace, compared to the 31-win pace the Nets are on when Thomas doesn’t play. Brooklyn isn’t good, nor is it trying to be good this season. But that defensive effort Brooklyn was building right before Thomas returned is back in the tank with Thomas consistently playing again, and it feels like Brooklyn would be happy to move on from him.

Tier 5: Basement Floor

26. Utah Jazz (13-25)

Last ranking: 26
In the last week: L at POR, L at OKC, W vs DAL, L vs CHA
Offensive rating: 114.0 (18th place)
Defensive rating: 122.0 (30th place)

Preseason win total: 18.5
On pace to win: 28

The Jazz were the worst team in the NBA last season. More games from Lauri Markkanen and marked improvement from Keyonte George have helped Utah win games and put a halfway decent offense on the floor. But now the Jazz find one game a week to park Markkanen, and they’re starting to put tank products on the floor. The low point was Saturday against the Hornets in front of their own fans, where they trailed by 31 points through one quarter and lost by 55.

27. Indiana Pacers (8-31)

Last ranking: 29
In the last week: L vs CLE, W at CHA, W vs MIA
Offensive rating: 108.6 (29th place)
Defensive rating: 116.2 (20th place)

Preseason win total: 37.5
On pace to win: 17

Congratulations are in order for Rick Carlisle for reaching 1,000 career wins. No one imagined that Carlisle would not get there until January, though. Indiana was expected to take a step back and struggle to make the playoffs after Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles surgery and Myles Turner’s defection to Milwaukee. But the Pacers have instead been buried under the weight of nonexistent lineup consistency and substandard performance.

28. Sacramento Kings (9-30)

Last ranking: 30
In the last week: L vs DAL, L at GS, W vs HOU
Offensive rating: 108.5 (30th place)
Defensive rating: 119.7 (28th place)

Preseason win total: 32.5
On pace to win: 19

The Kings were not highly thought of going into this season, but it is still jarring to see just how bad they are. They’ve already lost 20 games this season by 10 points or more. They’re the worst offense in basketball despite many offensive-minded players. And yet, half of their wins have come against Golden State, Denver, Minnesota and now twice against Houston.

29. New Orleans Pelicans (9-32)

Last ranking: 28
In the last week: L vs LAL, L at ATL, W at WAS, L at ORL
Offensive rating: 111.7 (26th place)
Defensive rating: 118.9 (27th place)

Preseason win total: 30.5
On pace to win: 18

Expectations were low for the Pelicans. But they’re in disarray, and only the Wizards and Kings share the designation of a bottom-five team on offense and defense at this point in the season. And unlike the Wizards and Kings, the Pelicans have a No. 1 overall pick in the prime of his career on the roster. Zion Williamson and Derik Queen can’t play together, and Jordan Poole can’t play with Jeremiah Fears.

30. Washington Wizards (10-28)

Last ranking: 27
In the last week: W vs ORL, L at PHI, L vs NO, L at PHO
Offensive rating: 109.5 (27th place)
Defensive rating: 120.7 (29th place)

Preseason win total: 20.5
On pace to win: 22

I mentioned last week that CJ McCollum was getting too many buckets and that the Wizards could use a point guard to help the rest of their young corps develop their games. Well, McCollum shot almost 50/40/90 while averaging nearly 20 points for a Wizards team that won five of McCollum’s last seven games with the team. Stop the count! Not only did Washington trade McCollum, but it acquired a point guard in Young that might debut this season in Washington only because of the increased scrutiny that comes with the Player Participation Policy. The Wizards said they wanted a star in Washington, and Young certainly qualifies, though Young can’t stop Washington from taking one last big swing at the lottery before its floor rises back to mid in the East as early as next season.