Spring training is less than a month away, and the market’s top free agent has finally signed with a new team.
And it’s the defending champs.
Four-time All-Star Kyle Tucker is on the verge of a four-year, $240-million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He turns 29 on Saturday and ranked No. 1 on The Athletic’s Big Board of top 50 free agents. Tucker spent seven years with the Houston Astros before playing last season with the Chicago Cubs, and he’s now joining the Dodgers, who have won the past two World Series and continue to spend aggressively on their star-studded lineup.
Tucker, one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball, is yet another ambitious addition, and his signing came after months of waiting for the top of the free agent market to take shape.
How Tucker fits the Dodgers
The outfield corners were among the few Dodgers weaknesses last season. Michael Conforto fell flat in his only season with the team, and Teoscar Hernández had a down year. To address that weakness, the Dodgers have added the best corner outfielder on the market, one that makes their already deep lineup even deeper.
What could that look like?
- Shohei Ohtani, DH
- Mookie Betts, SS
- Freddie Freeman, 1B
- Will Smith, C
- Kyle Tucker, RF
- Teoscar Hernandez, LF
- Max Muncy, 3B
- Andy Pages, CF
- Tommy Edman, 2B
The Dodgers’ other glaring weakness last season was their bullpen, and so — surprise! — they’ve also signed the top free agent closer, Edwin Díaz.
Actual contract vs. offseason projection
Tucker’s four-year, $240-million contract is radically different from The Athletic’s preseason projection of 12 years, $460 million. We were expecting a little more than $38 million per year into Tucker’s 40s. He will instead make $60 million per year and become a free agent again at 32 years old — but he’ll also have the right to opt out after the second and third years of the contract, so he could be a free agent again at 30. It was hard to see that sort of deal coming.
So, how did we reach our prediction?
When Tim Britton ran his annual analysis to predict offseason contracts, he had two new deals to consider as comps for Tucker. One was Juan Soto’s $765-million deal with the Mets, and the other was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500-million deal with the Blue Jays.
“The Guerrero deal is especially helpful,” Britton wrote, “as it removes a comparable bat from this winter’s market and sets a very sturdy baseline for valuing Tucker. Given how his production compares to Guerrero’s at the time of the extension, Tucker should be able to argue that a $35.7 million average annual value is his floor. But how close can Tucker get to the $40 million-plus AAVs of Soto, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani?”
Ultimately, Britton used the same rough math that seemed to drive Guerrero’s contract.
“In Tucker’s case, he’s been about 75 percent as valuable as Soto in the three and five years leading up to free agency,” Britton wrote. “Seventy-five percent of Soto’s $51 million AAV would be just over $38 million per season. Spread that through Tucker’s age-40 season — the length Soto and Guerrero each secured — and you get a 12-year, $460 million deal.”
Especially after their Shohei Ohtani signing two years ago, the Dodgers have been a bit of a financial wild card, and this contract certainly fits among the deals the Dodgers — and seemingly only the Dodgers — can pull off.
From the Big Board: “The gem of this free-agent class”
Tucker was a unanimous choice as the No. 1 free agent on The Athletic’s Big Board. Here’s what we wrote about him coming into the offseason:
The smooth-swinging right fielder is the gem of this free-agent class, a 29-year-old who has posted between four and five wins above replacement in each of the last five seasons. That said, Tucker’s 2025 could have been better.
Following a trade from the Astros to the Cubs, his offensive numbers were down from the ridiculous pace he set in 2024 and he once again missed playing time. In 2024, it was with a fractured shin, in 2025 with a hand fracture and calf strain. The 110 games he’s missed the last two years are a concern, but a pair of broken bones isn’t as worrisome as a string of soft-tissue injuries would be.
Tucker doesn’t wow with any one aspect of his game: He’s never hit more than 30 home runs or batted .300. But he hits for a solid average and for extra-base pop, walks as often as he strikes out, can steal 20-plus bases and plays above-average defense in right field.
Tucker’s rise from promise to production
Signing a long-term deal before his age-29 season, Tucker has achieved the lofty potential he showed a decade ago as a first-round pick out of a Florida high school. His brother, Preston, was also a big league outfielder, but Kyle was a much more highly touted prospect.
“Tucker is leaner and more athletic than his brother,” Baseball America wrote in its 2015 draft scouting report, “but still has big power potential. Though he has a bit of an unorthodox swing, he makes consistent hard contact thanks to his feel for the strike zone and advanced approach. His power is best to the pull side now, but he projects to be able to drive the ball out to all fields as he physically matures.”
By 2017, Tucker was one of Baseball America’s Top 20 prospects, and he stayed there for three seasons as he moved through the minor leagues, made his big league debut in 2018 and fully established himself in 2021 (he might have more fully established himself in 2020 had Major League Baseball played a full season).
Tucker has been an All-Star every year since 2022. He’s won a Gold Glove and two Silver Sluggers — including in 2025 — and he ranks 10th in fWAR the past five years. Tucker has missed time with calf and shin injuries the past two years, but he’s remained one of the game’s best left-handed hitters.
Tucker by the numbers
The fifth overall draft pick in 2015, Tucker became a Major League fixture in 2020 and has been one of the game’s most productive hitters ever since. He’s made four straight All-Star teams, and he’s won a Silver Slugger in two of the past three seasons. These are his offensive numbers (and MLB rank) since 2020:
fWAR: 25.2 (11th)
wRC+: 141 (11th)
Average: .276 (38th)
On-base: .362 (14th)
Slugging: .513 (12th)
OPS: .875 (10th)
Home runs: 143 (24th)
K%: 15.4 (43rd)
BB%: 11.7 (36th)
Cubs have already moved on
It was a little more than a year ago that the Cubs gave up three players to acquire Tucker, who proved to be a true rental. The Cubs went to the playoffs last season but lost in the division series, then they lost Tucker to free agency and showed little sign of wanting to bring Tucker back.
Instead, the Cubs have pivoted this offseason. They traded one potential right field replacement — prospect Owen Caissie — for starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, and they spent Tucker-level money on third baseman Alex Bregman, whose right-handed bat seems to better fit their lineup, and whose baseball rat mentality seems to fit their clubhouse. The Cubs have also signed four relief pitcher to Major League deals and taken a shot on right-handed slugger Tyler Austin, who hasn’t been in the Majors since 2019 but who hit for tremendous power the past six seasons in Japan.
Seiya Suzuki, who was primarily a DH last year, seems most likely to replace Tucker in right field while Austin, Matt Shaw and Moisés Ballestros could spend time at DH while also backing up and providing rest at various positions in the field.
State of the market: Best remaining free agents
In the past week, three of the Big Board’s top 10 free agents have signed — Tucker, Bregman, and Ranger Suarez with the Red Sox — but there are still three top-10 free agents readily available, including the market’s top middle infielder (Bo Bichette), top starting pitcher (Framber Valdez) and top center fielder (Cody Bellinger). The market’s top free agent catcher (J.T. Realmuto) is also still available.
These are the 17 Big Board players who remain unsigned:
- Bo Bichette, INF
- Framber Valdez, SP
- Cody Bellinger, OF
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B
- Zac Gallen, SP
- J.T. Realmuto, C
- Lucas Giolito, SP
- Chris Bassitt, SP
- Harrison Bader, CF
- Luis Arraez, 1B/2B
- Zack Littell, SP
- Marcell Ozuna, DH
- Max Scherzer, SP
- Rhys Hoskins, 1B
- Seranthony Domínguez, RP
- Michael Kopech, RP