UFC action returns this weekend as the promotion hosts UFC 324 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night. A matchup between lightweight fan favorites will headline the first UFC fight card since Dec. 13, as Justin Gaethje takes on Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight championship.
Gaethje, a former title challenger, enters the fight having won three of his past four contests. He beat Rafael Fiziev by unanimous decision in his last Octagon appearance. Gaethje is No. 5 in ESPN’s divisional rankings. Pimblett, ESPN’s No. 7-ranked lightweight, is undefeated in the UFC. His last win was a third-round knockout of Michael Chandler.
A panel of four former fighters, trainers and analysts offer their picks and insight for the UFC 324 main event.
Lightweight interim title fight
Expert takes
Paddy tends to keep his chin in the air, and he lacks discipline. Against a technical fighter like Gaethje, who drops his head and throws punches over the top, 25 minutes is a long time for Paddy to maintain distance and not get hit by a big shot. Paddy does have ways to win, including landing a submission, but there’s no way he’s taking Justin down. Paddy is decently fast and uses his length well, but he can’t match Gaethje’s power. I lean Gaethje. — Dustin Poirier
I’ll take Gaethje, but I’m not super confident. Ultimately, Gaethje will be too hard to take down, and Paddy needs the legitimate threat of a takedown to win. When Justin doesn’t want to be taken down, he doesn’t get taken down. Paddy is really hittable, and Gaethje is not the guy you want standing across from you if you’re hittable. Gaethje has proven he rises to the occasion. He really impressed me in his last fight against Fiziev. After losing the first round, Gaethje went to his jab and his fundamentals to get the win. If this were four years ago, I’d pick Gaethje without a doubt. He’s got a lot of miles on him now, but I’m still going with Gaethje. — Anthony Smith
Justin’s style is a bad matchup for Pimblett. Everybody is thinking Pimblett will submit him, but who has taken Justin down and submitted him other than Khabib Nurmagomedov? Pimblett won’t be able to take him down without taking punishment. Pimblett walks in with his head up high, and Justin is so good at punching over the top. If Justin has his way, he could make it look easy. He has turned the corner in terms of fighting smart, and his coach, Trevor Wittman, is a scientist. Those two are going to have answers for the entire fight. — Din Thomas
Which game plan will Paddy take? If he goes with his usual plan — grappling — that will favor Gaethje significantly. Gaethje is a former NCAA Division I wrestler. He’s difficult to hold down, and his scrambling ability is underrated. If Paddy tries to grapple, Gaethje will use his wrestling and scrambling to land those short, powerful uppercuts on the inside. The way he fights in the clinch is poetic. Now, if Paddy chooses to strike, use his long jab and teep kicks, he could win a five-round decision. — Michael Chiesa