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Brian Windhorst
Multiple Authors
THE NUMBERS IN the cylinder were 3, 5 and 2. All low. The teams with the worst records and, therefore, highest odds in the annual NBA draft lottery, typically get assigned the low combinations.
One number to go.
Justin Zanik, the general manager of the Utah Jazz, leaned on his elbows, studying his flip card with all the numbers his team was assigned.
Will Dawkins, the general manager of the Washington Wizards, stared ahead with his hands folded below the table.
Rick Schnall, co-owner of the Hornets, put on his glasses and put a pencil next to the numbers he needed.
They all sat side by side, stoically — that’s what decorum demanded — but this is the kind of moment that changes the direction of billion-dollar businesses. The three teams with the highest odds, none of whom had experienced any luck over the first three drawings that night last May.
This was the last chance to move up. Matt Doria, an NBA vice president, pulled the next number out of the machine.
11.
“Charlotte Hornets.”
Schnall took off his glasses and leaned back, weight falling from his shoulders. Dawkins offered a handshake. Zanik looked over and gave a flat smile. Schnall returned a sympathetic shrug.
And that, simply, can be the difference between getting a player such as Kon Knueppel, whom the Hornets took at No. 4 with that lottery result and who is among the favorites for Rookie of the Year, and not.
It’s also the difference between instant returns and attempting the NBA’s emerging tanking trend: the flip.
KNUEPPEL IS HAVING one of the greatest rookie shooting seasons in league history, shooting 42% on eight 3-point attempts per game (Steph Curry shot 43% on five as a rookie).
Though the Hornets have been building this roster for years — they’ve had four top-six selections in the past six drafts — Knueppel’s arrival has turbocharged a turnaround that has them on their longest winning streak (nine) in more than two decades.
And at the trade deadline, Charlotte made an aggressive deal for guard Coby White as part of what it hopes is a real postseason push.
Meanwhile, the Jazz drafted Ace Bailey at No. 5 and the Wizards took Tre Johnson at No. 6. Their teams are very high on their futures, and a season or two from now, they could be neck-and-neck with Knueppel in terms of their impact. To this point, though, neither has allowed for such a pivot.
Instead, the Wizards and Jazz are leaders in this new-age hybrid: actively tanking while hedging — and in their cases trading for stars amid a sunk season — so they can make a quick turnaround next season. The flip.
“How can you blame them?” one Eastern Conference general manager said. “The difference between getting a top-four pick last year and not was huge. And this year, we all know being in the top four and missing out [on the top four] is massive.”
The Wizards have traded for multitime All-Stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis, two players expected to help them return to the playoffs for the first time in five years … next season.
Young returned from a quad injury and played five out of six games for the Atlanta Hawks in December. But after being traded to Washington, he hasn’t played in six weeks and there is no timetable for his return.
When Davis suffered a hand injury last month, the Dallas Mavericks put out a news release that said he was expected to miss six weeks. After trading for him last week, Dawkins told reporters in Washington that Davis would be going back to Dallas to rehab and that his timetable to return could be closer to 10 weeks.
All of this, of course, puts the Wizards in position to get the highest draft pick this year (with the caveat that their pick would convert to the New York Knicks if it lands outside the top eight) but then quickly make a move to contention next season when Davis and Young would, in theory, be healthy.
“You may think your fans are the toughest ones to answer to when you’re rebuilding,” one longtime league executive said. “But it’s really your owner. And owners want to know when a rebuild will end, and it’s clear some of these teams have a deadline.”
The Jazz, for their part, appear to be in the same position as they hope for their own flip — from tanking to playoffs as soon as possible.
Utah’s pick is also top-eight protected, and the Jazz are the living embodiment of what a few spots in the lottery can mean. The team’s coaches and front office rave about the future of Bailey, but he wasn’t invited to participate in the league’s Rising Stars Game at All-Star Weekend, while former Duke roommates and top-four picks Cooper Flagg and Knueppel are headlining.
The Jazz, like the Wizards, made a major splash at the trade deadline as they shocked the league by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. in a draft-pick-heavy deal with the Memphis Grizzlies.
In his first game with the team Saturday, Jackson scored 22 points in just 25 minutes. And then he was benched in the fourth quarter of an eventual three-point loss in Orlando.
His new teammate, Lauri Markkanen, recently missed seven consecutive games because of an illness and regularly has been pulled from the lineup at the end of close games. Markkanen scored 27 points in 27 minutes against the Magic and was seated next to Jackson for the fourth — a scenario that will likely be repeated down the stretch.
“Trae and AD plus a top-five pick in this draft, or Jaren and Markkanen plus a top-five pick and you have something that could be special,” one Eastern Conference head coach said. “No stud from this draft and you have teams that are at the bottom who maybe can just get to the middle.”
Based on their actions, it seems other teams are planning similar strategies. In this category are teams such as the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers.
THE NETS DID something unprecedented this season, acquiring and using five first-round picks and routinely playing the youngest lineups in the league (the Wizards started a lineup with an average age of 20.6 years old at one point).
Without control over their first-round picks for the next several years, the Nets are highly incentivized to get as high of a pick as possible, then immediately slingshot themselves into relevance. That is a strong reason Brooklyn kept forward Michael Porter Jr., in the midst of a career season and in some demand, at the trade deadline.
He is needed for the flip, which is what the Nets hope to do by aggressively using the nearly $50 million in cap space they have this summer. The Pacers are hoping for the same, except they’re a few years ahead: a quick bounce next season when star point guard Tyrese Haliburton returns from a torn Achilles.
And Indiana took a step in that direction by getting a new franchise center in Ivica Zubac from the LA Clippers at the deadline.
After playing 15 out of 16 possible games before being traded, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle announced Zubac will miss some upcoming games to take care of a sore ankle that wasn’t previously on the injury report. He also recently became a father.
There are other teams that could benefit from short-term losses that have stars sitting out with uncertain injury timelines, such as the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving.
“You know what’s ironic?” one Western Conference executive asked. “Charlotte trades for White hoping to use him right away, and they find out he’s actually injured. And you have Utah, Indy and Washington trade for players and find ways to keep them out.”
Indeed, when the Hornets put White through a physical last week they found a previously undiagnosed calf injury that forced an amendment to the trade, with Charlotte removing a second-round pick from the deal with the Bulls.
Needless to say, there’s some irritation within the league, even if the flip strategy has some intellectual merit. The topic of these long-range non-competitive maneuvers was raised at a recent NBA competition committee meeting, sources said.
But any meaningful rules change to address this pathway won’t be able to stop it this season.
And the tanking is likely to get more obvious and perhaps more widespread.
Which leads to some philosophical questions about this overall direction of the league.
“You’ve heard of Icarus and what happens when you fly too close to the sun,” one team president said. “I think some teams are in danger of flying too close to the ground.”