After reading the headline you were probably wondering how long it would take for me to mention Leo De Vries. The answer was, apparently, 18 words. Let’s take a look at two trends that are on collision course unless they aren’t:
1. The A’s have gone wild lately with regard to extensions, inking not one, not two, not three, but four in the past two years — and made a $130M offer to Nick Kurtz that was not accepted. And have reportedly been in discussions with Shea Langeliers even if no agreement is imminent or likely. Clearly these A’s are “extension oriented” as they attempt to build a juggernaut with name recognition in the “approaching Vegas with a strong tailwind” years.
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2. There seems to be a movement towards signing extensions for players with enormous potential and exactly zero track record. This past week Colt Emerson set a new record being guaranteed $95M before his first PA and it’s a record that might last for days…Reports have the Pirates and Konnor Griffin “deep in extension talks,” news that was followed by Griffin’s call up today. It’s a race to see which comes first: his (probably) 9 figure extension or his first big league hit.
It’s hard to see these 4 A’s extensions and 2 “pre-MLB debut” extensions and not wonder about De Vries. Would it be prudent for the A’s to bet on the 19 year old before he proves himself in the big leagues and his price tag rockets upwards? Could it be a break, in hindsight, that Kurtz passed up $130M guaranteed and left that purse open for the A’s to put elsewhere, perhaps into a toolsy shortstop who has drawn comps to Francisco Lindor while tearing up spring training after mastering AA as an 18 year old?
Prospects in baseball fail more often than they succeed, by a lot. Even the most promising ones, the “can’t miss” ones, often miss. Injuries can drastically alter a career arc as can issues of maturity or off the field choices around diet or lifestyle.
For this reason I tend to be risk averse with regard to offering unproven prospects appreciable guaranteed money and teams have generally felt the same way — until now. And today I am going to put myself out there by declaring that while usually my recommended answer would be “no,” with De Vries I see an exception. I would love to see the A’s hop on the “pre-debut band wagon” and sign De Vries now to a similar deal to the ones Emerson and Griffin are signing.
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First off, Emerson and Griffin are such good prospects that their deals provide a fair barometer for the ceiling of a De Vries extension. That is to say Emerson isn’t going to settle for $95M over 8 years but De Vries gets $150M. In any talks with De Vries, presumably you would be looking at figures comparable to the ones we have seen with his peers. (We will see about the specifics with Griffin, but even if they are a lot more robust one has to factor in that he is the #1 prospect right now on MLB Pipeline, not 4th.)
So with De Vries, presumably, the A’s would be gambling on the efficacy of allotting somewhere around Emerson’s $12M-ish per year over an 8 year period. Given that De Vries is poised to debut as soon as the next couple months, plays a premium position, switch hits effectively from both sides of the plate and has matched stars like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bryce Harper in his AA hitting at age 18, it’s hard to imagine where if he stays healthy De Vries won’t be a veritable bargain over the next 8 years averaging around $12M/year (or whatever his extension would look like).
Obviously you don’t want to start a salary clock too far ahead of an MLB clock, since once you are paying a player he is getting paid wherever he plays. So whenever the A’s were to agree to an extension with De Vries they would have to feel a call up was imminent — this was the case with Griffin who is getting called up for tonight’s game.
After the way he dominated the Cactus League (.426/.460/.723, 3 HR in 50 PA), including many hits against quality big league pitchers, it’s fair to think that De Vries might force his way up as soon as June 1st. So the time to talk about an extension is right about now.
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Let’s be realistic here: there are finite dollars for the front office to throw around. An extension for a player making his AA season debut tonight might mean backing off on continued talks with Nick Kurtz, or it might mean foregoing a free agent opportunity in 2028. So you have to be sure it’s the right choice of where to allocate “real money” — you can’t just fall back on the cliched “Sure, it’s not my money, why not?”
Should the A’s get knee deep in extension talks with De Vries before he sets foot on a big league diamond for the first time? Suddenly there is precedent that teams are seeing this gamble as a shrewd investment in a long term future and contention window, while in the meantime Jon Singleton is laughing on his way to the bank.
In Leo We Trust?