The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday could be one of the most consequential in league history. Not only could it be one of the deepest and most talented drafts in recent memory, but draft reform is coming next year, changing how the lottery works. With the proposed 3-2-1 lottery system, there would be no draft floor. For example, the Washington Wizards could pick no worse than No. 5 this year after finishing with the worst record. Next year, the team with the league’s worst record could pick as low as No. 12.
Combating tanking is a real issue for the league. The 3-2-1 lottery reform might solve the problem on the surface, but it also could be a disaster. Alas, fewer teams will tank next season because next year’s class doesn’t have the star power at the top that this class does. Bluntly, there’s no projected talent with the ceiling of AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, or Darryn Peterson in the 2027 class. Winning the No. 3 pick this year will be just as good as winning the lottery and getting the No. 1 pick next year.
There is no true consensus on who the best player in the class is; it’s a debate that involves team fit, current roster, projecting what a player will be in a few years and even Injury concerns and availability. Whether you’re team Dybantsa or someone like Caleb Wilson is more your cup of tea, this class has something for everyone looking for a franchise-altering building block.
2026 NBA Mock Draft: AJ Dybantsa goes No. 1 to Wizards, Cameron Boozer selected at No. 2 by the Pacers
Cameron Salerno
Last year, I took on the task of answering the simple question: Who needs Cooper Flagg the most? Although the Mavericks didn’t come close to being a play-in/playoff team, you can make a pretty strong argument that Dallas is in an excellent position to rebuild/retool its roster by having one of the best young stars in the league.
Going back to why the 2026 lottery is important: It could make the difference between a team getting out of the rebuilding phase or being stuck in purgatory with the new lottery system on the way. The right star can transform a franchise.
Ahead of the draft lottery, I decided to take on the tall task once again of ranking every team by this simple metric: What team needs the No. 1 pick the most right now, and who deserves to have the lottery balls fall their way? Notably, there are only 13 teams on the list because the Milwaukee Bucks can’t receive the No. 1 pick because of swap rights with the Atlanta Hawks.
Let’s dive in!
Tier I: In need of some good mojo
1. Sacramento Kings
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 11.5%
The Kings are a mess. The roster is old. It’s also one of the most expensive in the league. With the new lottery reform on the horizon, the Kings are among the teams most likely to be impacted. Sacramento does not project as a playoff/play-in team next season. The sense of urgency for Sacramento to pick up a franchise guy to build around this year is at an all-time high.
If Sacramento gets the No. 1 pick, it would provide hope for a franchise that has seen one playoff appearance (2023) in the last two decades. “Ethical tanking” is a myth, as teams such as the Wizards, Jazz and Nets all slid down in the lottery last year. The Kings had the worst record for most of the season before a stretch in mid-March saw them win five of six games, which doomed a potential bottom-three finish. The Kings are the team that would benefit the most from getting No. 1.
2. Brooklyn Nets
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%
The Nets had five first-round picks last summer. The one who showed the most promise was Egor Dёmin, who was selected at No. 8 last summer. Brooklyn is in a very interesting position heading into the offseason, where the top pick would quite literally speed up the timeline overnight.
Brooklyn is one of the lone teams with real cap space this summer. Out of any team in the East, Brooklyn would benefit the most from landing No. 1. The roster wasn’t great this season, but Jordi Fernández is an excellent coach. After dropping all the way to No. 8 last year in the lottery, Brooklyn is due for some good mojo. If Brooklyn gets No. 1, you can make a strong case for Dybantsa as the ideal fit for this roster.
3. Chicago Bulls
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 4.5%
During the last decade, the Bulls have won three total playoff games. Chicago has been stuck in the middle for most of that time period with a roster that didn’t make sense on paper. The Bulls passed down their misfortune and wonky roster construction to the Kings. The duo of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan didn’t make sense in Chicago and (shockingly!) hasn’t worked in Sacramento either. LaVine and DeRozan are individually good players, but they’re not a good fit together.
The Bulls need a star. This lottery could be the perfect solution for just that. Landing someone like Dybantsa or even Peterson would help Chicago take the first step toward getting out of play-in purgatory.
4. Utah Jazz
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 11.5%
The Jazz are the most interesting team that can win the lottery for this simple reason: Dybantsa would instantly become the most popular person in the state of Utah. After watching Dybantsa play his senior season of high school at Utah Prep and his lone college season at BYU, the Jazz have been building for this moment.
Utah made a “win-now” move at the deadline by pushing some chips in to land Jaren Jackson Jr. from Memphis. Utah got unlucky during the last lottery after finishing with the worst record in the league. Will Utah get lucky this time around and have the right to select a hometown hero? We will see. If the Jazz get Dybantsa, you wouldn’t be able to walk 100 feet in the state of Utah without seeing someone with a “Dybantsa” jersey.
5. Washington Wizards
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%
The Wizards had one of the most confusing seasons of any team on the list. First, Washington traded for Trae Young as its point guard of the future. Then, at the deadline, they traded for Anthony Davis. I really like the young players on the Wizards’ roster, such as Alex Sarr, Keyshawn George, Tre Johnson, Bub Carrington, and Bilal Coulibaly. Still, I’m perplexed why Washington would trade for Davis. It makes sense if you believe in the fit with Davis/Sarr long-term, but AD has played in 113 games total the last three seasons.
NBA insider Chris Haynes reported that Davis “may end up somewhere else” by the time next season starts. If Washington wins the lottery, could the organization be more motivated to trade Davis before he ever suits up for Washington? We will see. If Washington wins the lottery and takes Dybantsa, it would make this team a play-in roster (at minimum) this upcoming season.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 9%
A divorce between Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies feels inevitable this offseason. After trading Desmond Bane last offseason and Jaren Jackson Jr. at last season’s deadline, the Grizzlies appear to be heading toward a full-on reset. Trading Morant and moving off him — for whatever Memphis can get — is the logical next step.
Winning the lottery would help the Grizzlies feel better about moving off Morant. Memphis has been incredible at player development. Cedric Coward was a stud during his rookie season. Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson, and Zach Edey have all shown promise as building blocks for whatever the Grizzlies’ next steps are. Dybantsa would be the pick here if Memphis lands No. 1.
7. Indiana Pacers
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 14%
Tyrese Haliburton suffered one of the most devastating injuries in Game 7 of last year’s NBA Finals. His torn Achilles led to the Pacers taking a “gap year.” To make matters even more interesting, Indiana traded a very uniquely protected pick to the Clippers to acquire big man Ivica Zubac — which is/was even more of an indication that Indiana planned to use this past season as just that, a gap year.
The Pacers already have a great roster. Indiana was literally 48 minutes away from winning the NBA title last summer. Indiana also had no incentive to win another game after the trade deadline to improve its chances of keeping its pick. Indiana should be ranked ahead of OKC if we are talking about the best roster on this list. It would be cool to pair someone like Boozer/Wilson/Dybantsa/Peterson with Haliburton, but other teams need that talent way more. The Pacers will be a playoff team next season, with or without this pick. You can’t say the same about most teams on here.
Tier II: Sure, why not?
8. Charlotte Hornets
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 0.5%
The Hornets were my favorite team to watch this season. Charlotte’s rise from the third-worst record last season to a play-in appearance this season was remarkable. Charlotte is building something special, and adding the No. 1 pick would make them go from the play-in to a top-six seed in the East. The Hornets have the slimmest odds to jump to No. 1, but it’s hard not to think about the possibilities. Imagine pairing Boozer with this current roster? It would be fun to watch.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 6.7%
The Mavericks were blessed with the No. 1 pick last year after having a 1.8% chance of jumping to that spot. Landing Flagg was franchise-saving and led to numerous basketball conspiracy theories after Dallas landed the pick, just over three months after trading away Luka Dončić to the Lakers.
The Mavericks are still far away from contending and need more pieces to round out the roster. Dallas getting back-to-back No. 1 picks would be a wild outcome considering that Flagg was originally supposed to be part of this 2026 draft class. If you dropped Flagg in this class, he would be the consensus No. 1 pick.
The 2026 NBA Draft will be historic, but it could’ve looked different if Cooper Flagg didn’t reclassify
Cameron Salerno
10. Atlanta Hawks
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 6.8%*
*The Hawks have two chances at the No. 1 pick. Atlanta owns the Pelicans first-round pick and also has swap rights with the Bucks. If the Bucks get the No. 1 pick, the Hawks can swap the New Orleans pick with them.
The talk of lottery reform has also opened the conversation about teams being able to pick in the top 4 (or a similar number) in consecutive years. The Hawks are the perfect example of why it’s not one-size-fits-all. Zaccharie Risacher is on pace to be the worst No. 1 pick since Anthony Bennett in 2013. He was almost unplayable in the playoffs against the Hawks. The Hawks shouldn’t be punished for winning the No. 1 pick in a lackluster draft class. My favorite fit if Atlanta gets No. 1? Peterson.
11. Miami Heat
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 1%
For the third consecutive season, Miami failed to make it out of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Heat won 43 games this season but lost to the Hornets in a thrilling play-in game. So, what’s next? The Heat (as rumored every offseason) could go star hunting. We will see if it actually happens.
Miami is the one team that I’m not sure who it would take if they landed No. 1. Dybantsa would be the most logical guess. Roster changes need to happen this offseason. You could make the argument Miami should be higher because it has never landed the No. 1 pick, but moving up from 13 to 1 seems unlikely. Never say never, I guess?
Tier III: Two timelines, Part 2?
12. Golden State Warriors
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 2%
Everyone familiar with the NBA remembers the Warriors’ “two timeline” approach, which was the organization’s way to combine the present with the future. The plan to integrate young talent with veterans on the roster was a mixed bag. The Warriors won the title in 2022, but young players such as Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman didn’t play the long-term roles the organization probably hoped they would to bridge the gap.
The Warriors are entering uncertainty. Steve Kerr might have coached his last game with the organization. Steph Curry is still one of the most entertaining and best players in the league, but he’s not getting any younger. Jimmy Butler is coming off a torn ACL. Draymond Green has a looming player option this summer. The No. 1 pick would be exciting and would help usher in a new era, but the problem is that the Warriors need help now. Would someone in Tier 1 of this class accomplish that during his rookie season? Maybe. If the Warriors are all-in on a new era, then the No. 1 pick would be a great fit. If not? The organization might run into the same problems it did when balancing its stars with young talent on the roster.
Tier IV: Don’t be greedy
13. Oklahoma City Thunder
Percent chance of winning No. 1 overall pick: 1.5%
Unless you’re a Thunder fan or a complete basketball sicko, you should be rooting for any outcome other than the Thunder getting No. 1 on lottery day. The Thunder have the best roster in the NBA and are the clear favorites to repeat as NBA champions. Adding the No. 1 pick (or even a top-four pick) to that roster would be chaos.
So, with that said, congrats to the Thunder for moving up in the draft lottery!