Updated:
May 16, 2026 , 07:44 PM ET
• 4 min read
Alex Smalley tops the PGA Championship odds and leaderbound entering Sunday, with Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy among those right behind.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alex Smalley prepares to putt on the third green during the third round of the PGA Championship golf tournament.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a buy opportunity on Scottie Scheffler entering Round 4 of a major championship.
The No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking is just 5 strokes back of 54-hole leader Alex Smalley (-6) entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. This is despite a dismal third-round putting performance that saw him lose 2.29 strokes for the day on the highly difficult greens. We can now get him at just a 5% win probability and +1900 odds to win the PGA Championship.
As such, I’m fading Smalley after he gained 1.25 strokes on the greens on Saturday, and locking in three extra outright winner picks on the top players in contention entering Round 4 at Aronimink Golf Club.
See below for our PGA Championship Round 4 predictions and golf picks based on the live PGA Championship odds from Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps.
Best PGA Championship Round 4 predictions
| Golfer | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Ludvig Aberg |
To win | 17¢ +488 |
 Rory McIlroy |
To win | 11¢ +810 |
 Scottie Scheffler |
To win | 5¢ +1900 |
I’m sticking to the outright market entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship. The tough scoring conditions through 54 holes, and the crowded leaderboard at Aronimink Golf Club are presenting exceptional value on the world’s best golfers and proven major contenders.
I’m fully fading Alex Smalley and the likes of Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, and Aaron Rai. Sunday at Aronimink has the makings of one of the most thrilling final rounds of a major championship since Rory McIlroy’s 2025 Masters win. Buckle up, and sweat out these three picks on Sunday’s biggest threats to win.
