Jason Ence
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 24, 2026 , 10:40 AM ET
• 4 min read
Don’t expect much offense from the Astros this afternoon.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Shota Imanaga on the mound during a recent start.
The Chicago Cubs desperately need a win, and they’ll look to get it this afternoon when they host the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs have lost seven straight for the first time in four years after a 3-0 loss on Saturday, but with Yordan Alvarez sidelined, my Astros vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect them to get back on track today.
Who will win Astros vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+133)
Yordan Alvarez will miss Sunday’s game, which particularly hurts them in this matchup. That’s because Shota Imanaga has a 2.12 HR/9 rate vs. left-handed hitters, but just a 0.65 HR/9 rate vs. righties.
He’s dominating opposite-side matchups, with RHH posting a .245 wOBA. He also walks RHH half as often. Over the past two weeks, Houston’s .179 wOBA, 13 wRC+, and .000 ISO vs. LHP are the worst in the league.
There’s too much juice for me to take the Chicago Cubs moneyline, but there’s value on the run line given Houston’s lack of production and poor bullpen performance.
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Astros vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-122)
I’m expecting the Cubs to score enough runs to cover the run line, but not much beyond that.
Their 60 wRC+ is third-worst in the majors over the past two weeks. They’ve managed just a .294 xwOBA, hindered by a 26.1% strikeout rate that’s third-worst over that span.
Houston Astros starter Peter Lambert has far better road splits, with a .200 BABIP and a .270 FIP outside of Daikin Park.
I foresee the Cubs finally breaking through against a Houston pen with a 5.18 xFIP the past two weeks, while both lineups struggle against the starters.
Jason Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 6-11, -6.11 units
- Over/Under bets: 11-6, +4.52 units
Astros vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Astros +150 | Cubs -156
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (-133) | Cubs -1.5 (+127)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+117) | Under 7.5 (-122)
How to watch Astros vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, May 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City HN, Marquee |
| Astros starting pitcher | Peter Lambert (2-4, 3.57 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (4-4, 3.38 ERA) |
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