Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 27, 2026 , 06:45 PM ET
• 4 min read
Alex Smalley checks the ball-striking boxes to contend at Colonial.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alex Smalley plays on the third green.
Another week, another PGA Tour event, and Ludvig Aberg winning tops my Charles Schwab Challenge predictions ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, May 28.
Because Aberg headlines my weekly golf picks I need to look further down the board for Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks to round out my betting card, and Alex Smalley and Jackson Suber are my two favorite long shots to target this week.
UPDATE: Bud Cauley withdraws from the tournament on Wednesday.
Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks
| Golfer |  |
Bonus pick |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Smalley | +4000 | Top 20 finish (+140) |
| Jackson Suber | +12500 | Top 40 finish (+160) |
Picks were made on May 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Alex Smalley
+4000 at BetMGM
The first PGA Tour win is coming for Alex Smalley, and he’s carded five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board.
His well-rounded game is a perfect fit for the demands of Colonial, and Smalley also sits 12th in adjusted scoring average while ranking seventh in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach for the year.
Alternate pick: Alex Smalley to finish Top 20 (+140)
Covers golf betting tools
Sleeper pick to win: Jackson Suber
+12500 at BetMGM
There’s some momentum building for Jackson Suber with his T19 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, followed up with a solo-fourth last week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Most impressively, Suber gained true strokes across the board at TPC Craig Ranch while ranking third in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach.
This will be his second trip to Colonial, and Suber also showed off his ball-striking prowess in the Texas Children’s Houston Open with ranks of 10th in tee-to-green play and sixth on approach.
Alternate pick: Jackson Suber to finish Top 40 (+160)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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