College Football Conference Analysis and Best Bets

For the next few weeks, I will preview every college football conference, providing my current power ratings and projected win totals for each school, and also offering my favorite bets in each.

I’m starting with the ACC, which saw +5000 long shot Duke win the conference for the first time since 1989 last year thanks to some peculiar tie-breakers. Meanwhile, it was Miami that went to the playoffs and advanced all the way to the National Championship Game.

So what’s in store for 2026? Let’s just say my 2026 ACC preview isn’t calling for a Virginia/Duke title game rematch.

2026 ACC best bets

Pick	Odds
Miami to win the ACC	-135
California Under 6.5 wins	-120
Georgia Tech Under 6.5 wins	-125

Miami to win the ACC

-135 at BetMGM

One of the more shocking facts in college football is that the Miami Hurricanes haven’t won the ACC since joining way back in 2004. 

That changes this year. 

Despite losing quarterback Carson Beck to the NFL, the Hurricanes may have upgraded with Duke transfer Darian Mensah. Leading rusher Mark Fletcher (1,192 yards) and leading receiver Malachi Toney (1,211 yards) both return and both are preseason All-Americans. 

Miami also returns six starters on defense. They lost a pair of first-round edge rushers in Reuben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, but both defensive tackles return, and they have multiple five-stars on the edges who have waited their turn. 

Miami’s schedule is also advantageous. The Hurricanes do not play SMU or Louisville, the two teams who beat them last year, during the regular season. They also host other ACC contenders in Pittsburgh, Florida State, and Virginia Tech. 

Miami’s toughest game in ACC play is a road trip to Clemson, where my ratings favor the Hurricanes by 7.5. In all other conference games, I’m projecting Miami to be at least a two-touchdown favorite.

If Miami does qualify for the ACC Championship Game, I would expect them to be a sizable favorite, which will make this -135 price seem cheap.

Bet to -150.

California Under 6.5 wins

 -120 at DraftKings

My power ratings only project 5.4 wins for the California Golden Bears this season. That disparity vs. their 6.5-win total is one of the biggest in all of my power ratings this year regardless of conference. 

The Bears have a brand new first-time head coach in Tosh Lupoi. He is known as more of a recruiter than a masterful tactician. Quarterback Jeron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns after a solid freshman season, but only seven other starters on offense and defense are back.

When you factor in a schedule that includes tricky non-conference games vs. UCLA and at UNLV, my ratings only project Cal to be a clear favorite (more than three points) in two games (vs. Wagner and Stanford).

I love the Under 6.5 to -150.

Georgia Tech Under 6.5 wins

-125 at DraftKings

I’ve downgraded the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2.2 points in my power ratings and only project 6.1 wins for the “Ramblin’ Wreck” this year. I think that is conservative as far as a downgrade. 

Georgia Tech loses both hot-shot coordinators to Texas and Florida. They also lose their all-everything quarterback Haynes King, who started 36 games the last three years while accounting for 10,184 total yards and 91 total touchdowns.

They bring in Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza (Fernando’s brother) to replace King. If Alberto was that good, I think Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti would have tried harder to keep him in Bloomington.

Georgia Tech plays Colorado, Tennessee, and Georgia in non-conference action. They also have to go to Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Clemson in conference play (three teams I think are better than them). I think six wins is the max for them even if Mendoza turns out okay.

Play to -150.

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Other 2026 ACC team previews

Cited college football win totals and odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Boston College

Win total projection: 3.4

Win total: 3.5 (Under -140)

The Eagles only won two games last year, and I don’t see it getting much better this year. Currently, my power ratings project them to be favored in only one game (Maine). This might be Bill O’Brien’s final year already.

Clemson 

Win total projection: 8.1

Win total: 7.5 (Over -144)

Fresh off their worst season since 2010, the betting markets are way down on Clemson this year.

I’m buying low. They still have Top 25 talent, and Dabo Swinney has traditionally performed better in the underdog role. I have bet Over 7.5 wins.

Duke

Win total projection: 5.8

Win total: 5.5 (Over -138)

Last year Duke won the ACC for the first time since 1989. However, despite winning nine games, they were out-gained on the season. They also unexpectedly lost their starting QB Darian Mensah late in the transfer portal process. I only project them to be favored in five games. 

Florida State

Win total projection: 6.8

Win total: 5.5 (Over -152)

Despite going 5-7 last year, Florida State ranked No. 8 in the country in yards per game margin at +144. That usually bodes well for the following season. FanDuel is one of the only books to list Florida State’s win total at 5.5. I have bet Over that number.  

Louisville

Win total projection: 7.7

Win total: 8.5 (Under -140)

Louisville could be favored in as many as 10 games this year. I bet Over 7.5 wins.

The home game vs SMU in Week 3 could decide who plays Miami in the ACC Championship game.

NC State

Win total projection: 7.3

Win total: 7.5 (Under -128)

Quarterback CJ Bailey returns, but the Wolf Pack lost five starters to the transfer portal, including running back Hollywood Smothers (Texas). NC State was also out-gained last season despite a 8-5 record. They had a neutral-site game vs. Virginia get changed to a true road game. I have bet Under 7.5.

North Carolina

Win total projection: 4.6

Win total: 4.5 (Over -142)

Last season was a disaster for Bill Belichick. Despite returning only six starters, I have upgraded North Carolina’s power rating 5.3 points. Still, I don’t see them getting to a bowl game this year, as the Tar Heels play 11 power conference opponents.

Pittsburgh

Win total projection: 7.7

Win total: 7.5 (Over -150)

I thought I would be down on Pittsburgh this year. However, they bring back four of their Top 5 defensive lineman, and quarterback Mason Heintschel should improve after his freshman season. The Panthers could be favored in as many as nine games this year. Lean Over 7.5.

SMU

Win total projection: 8.6

Win total: 8.5 (Over -140)

SMU is 14-2 in the ACC since joining the conference. The Mustangs return quarterback Kevin Jennings and are contenders again this year. They have two huge road games at Florida State and Louisville in the first three weeks. If they win both, they can punch their ticket to the ACC Championship game. Lean Over 8.5.

Stanford

Win total projection: 4.0

Win total: 3.5 (Over -114)

Stanford has their third different head coach in three years. I’m not wild about the Tavita Pritchard hire, nor projected starting quarterback Davis Warren. While my power ratings project four wins, the Cardinal are only favored in two.

Syracuse

Win total projection: 4.7

Win total: 4.5 (Under -122)

As far as a power rating, Syracuse is one of the most improved teams in the country. I’ve upgraded them 10.7 points from last year.

Quarterback Steve Angeli returns from injury. Last year, the offense averaged 38 points per game with him, and just 11 points per game without him. With that being said, I only project Syracuse to be favored in four games.

Virginia

Win total projection: 7.7

Win total: 8.5 (Under -162)

Virginia is fresh off their first 11-win season in school history. Only seven starters return from last year, though.

While the Cavaliers could be favored in as many as nine games, I bet Under 8.5 wins at FanDuel. Most of the market is trading at 7.5.

Virginia Tech

Win total projection: 7.5

Win total: 6.5 (Over -164)

I’m not a fan of James Franklin, but I’m buying him at Virginia Tech in Year 1.

The Hokies bring back 13 starters, welcome in a bunch of talented and experienced Penn State transfers, and rank No. 4 in Bill Connelly’s returning production (rare for a new coach). Virginia Tech could be favored in each of their first seven games. I have bet Over 6.5.

Wake Forest

Win total projection: 5.9

Win total: 5.5 (Over -134)

Head coach Jake Dickert did an outstanding job getting the Demon Deacons to nine wins in his first year (win total was only 4.5). However, I’ve downgraded their power rating this year, as they could be underdogs in as many as seven games.

2026 power ratings for ACC teams

It should come as no surprise that Miami easily leads the way in my 2026 ACC power ratings.

Even though they lost nine players to the NFL Draft, I don’t expect the Hurricanes to take too big a step back in 2026. Can Miami finally win their first ACC Championship since joining the conference in 2004? My power ratings say yes, as I’d favor Miami by almost 10 points over the next team (SMU).

I do expect a lot of the other contenders to be slightly improved this year, including SMU, Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State. Virginia Tech, with new head coach James Franklin, will be one of the most improved teams in the country.

Finally, I think defending ACC champion Duke will struggle to make a bowl game this year.

Odds to win 2026 ACC Championship

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 7-23.

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