MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (8/2)

Today is another day you have to be careful with your MLB DFS lineups. We’ve already seen a few pitchers have their starts skipped to preserve their health in case they’re traded. Keep checking the FantasyPros baseball news feed for up-to-date information.

Today’s main slate on DraftKings begins at 1:35 p.m. ET and includes nine games. FanDuel’s main slate starts at the same time but includes two additional games. Those games are Kansas City at Colorado and Milwaukee at the Los Angeles Angels.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/2)

• Gavin Williams can be a bit difficult to predict, but the one constant is typically strikeouts. Williams’ 168 strikeouts top the American League. He’s had seven games with double-digit strikeouts this season, including four straight starts.
• Griffin Jax won’t go deep into his starts, but he is consistently usable in DFS contests. He has lasted six innings just twice in the 17 starts that he has made this season. He’s pitched well, though, with a 3.24 ERA and 3.63 FIP. If you’re looking for a consistent mid-priced option, Jax has scored at least 27 points in nine of his last 10 starts on FanDuel.
• While I don’t necessarily believe it, Merrill Kelly is coming off a July in which he pitched to a 1.95 ERA over 27 innings. That came with a 4.33 FIP, so he was clearly pitching above his head. That said, if you want to take a chance on it continuing for another start, his price is affordable, especially on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Washington Nationals Projected Lineup (8/2)

Today is another day you have to be careful with your MLB DFS lineups. We’ve already seen a few pitchers have their starts skipped to preserve their health in case they’re traded. Keep checking the FantasyPros baseball news feed for up-to-date information.

Today’s main slate on DraftKings begins at 1:35 p.m. ET and includes nine games. FanDuel’s main slate starts at the same time but includes two additional games. Those games are Kansas City at Colorado and Milwaukee at the Los Angeles Angels.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/2)

• Gavin Williams can be a bit difficult to predict, but the one constant is typically strikeouts. Williams’ 168 strikeouts top the American League. He’s had seven games with double-digit strikeouts this season, including four straight starts.
• Griffin Jax won’t go deep into his starts, but he is consistently usable in DFS contests. He has lasted six innings just twice in the 17 starts that he has made this season. He’s pitched well, though, with a 3.24 ERA and 3.63 FIP. If you’re looking for a consistent mid-priced option, Jax has scored at least 27 points in nine of his last 10 starts on FanDuel.
• While I don’t necessarily believe it, Merrill Kelly is coming off a July in which he pitched to a 1.95 ERA over 27 innings. That came with a 4.33 FIP, so he was clearly pitching above his head. That said, if you want to take a chance on it continuing for another start, his price is affordable, especially on DraftKings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Washington Nationals Projected Lineup (8/2)

• We’re going to go with the Nationals’ offense against a to-be-determined Atlanta Braves starter. The Braves moved Martin Perez up a day and had a very successful start from him. I’m assuming the Braves go with a bullpen committee led by left-handed pitcher Danny Young.
• Even as a left-handed batter, James Wood has shown enough against left-handed pitchers this season to consider using him. Wood has 19 extra-base hits, including nine home runs, good for an .833 OPS against left-handed pitchers.
• Matchups against left-handed pitchers are when you want to use Dylan Crews. Since coming back from the minor leagues, he is showing some splits that make him look like a future platoon player rather than the superstar that was expected. Against right-handed pitchers, he is batting .172 with a .553 OPS. Against left-handed pitchers, he is batting .333 with a .983 OPS.
• The cheapest player in the Nationals’ lineup on DraftKings is Andres Chaparro. He also happens to be a viable option in this matchup. Chapparo has nine extra-base hits, including four home runs against left-handed pitchers.

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (8/2)

• Kumar Rocker is slated to start against the Houston Astros today. He’s unpredictable from start to start. In his most recent start, he had a quality start with two earned runs over 6.2 innings. Just a few starts ago, Rocker started against the Astros and allowed seven earned runs. He has a 9.28 career ERA against the Astros.
• Yordan Alvarez is in play every single day in DFS contests. He leads the league in runs scored, home runs, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage (OBP), slugging rate and total bases. That’s just naming a few. He’s 3-for-4 against Rocker in his career with a pair of home runs.
• Jeremy Pena just needs to stay healthy. While his barrel rate is a bit down this season, his expected batting average has reached a new level at .301. His actual batting average has followed suit, with a new career-best (.319). His OPS has also reached a new career-best (.889). Pena has also hit 12 doubles, a triple and 12 home runs in only 64 games.
• There are the makings of a substantially better player in Cam Smith than what he has shown so far. His 11.5% barrel rate and 44.5% hard-hit rate indicate more power than he has shown. It also comes with 93rd-percentile sprint speed, so perhaps more stolen bases are in his future. At these costs, that’s a risk worth taking.

Core Studs

• Considering the time Francisco Lindor and Sandy Alcantara have spent in the National League East, it’s not surprising that they’ve faced each other 33 times. What is a bit surprising is the amount of success that Lindor has had against the former Cy Young winner. Lindor has 10 hits, with four of them going for extra bases, including a pair of home runs.
• Dansby Swanson doesn’t have as many at-bats against Gerrit Cole as Lindor does against Alcantara, but he has nearly as much success. Swanson is 4-for-11 against Cole in his career, with three extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs.
• It’s odd seeing Elly De La Cruz at only $5,500 on DraftKings. That’s his lowest price since July 7th. That’s despite ending July with a 33-point game and a 14-point game on that site. He started August off with a delayed game. His opposing pitcher today is Mitch Keller.

Value Plays/Punts

• Tyler Stephenson is coming off a July in which he posted a .947 OPS over 70 plate appearances. He’s essentially become a platoon option against right-handed pitchers. Today’s matchup is against righty Mitch Keller, against whom Stephenson has five extra-base hits in 26 at-bats.
• Joc Pederson has a matchup today against right-handed pitcher Peter Lambert. Pederson is in play with any righty on the mound, but it’s encouraging that Pederson already has a pair of home runs against Lambert in his career.
• Heriberto Hernandez‘s price has not risen as high as you’d expect given his performance. Since the start of June, he has a .904 OPS over 179 plate appearances. At the beginning of that period, he wasn’t an everyday player, but he has now started the Marlins’ last 20 games.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

George Kirby (SP – SEA): 4.5 Strikeouts — Lower

George Kirby‘s last start was his first in eight outings without at least five strikeouts. He finished his most recent game with three strikeouts.

Taking the under on 4.5 strikeouts isn’t because Kirby is suddenly a worse strikeout pitcher. Rather, it has more to do with rumors that he might be traded. There is a chance that he won’t make the start at all, but if he does, he won’t pitch deep because of the injury risk.

Max Scherzer (SP – TOR): 4.5 Strikeouts — Lower

Max Scherzer is one of the best strikeout pitchers of all time. That’s the only reason that this line is still set at 4.5. The last time that Scherzer had five strikeouts in a game was September 24th last season.

Scherzer has pitched in seven games this season, with his high mark being four strikeouts, including his last two appearances. He faces a Cardinals team today that only strikes out 20.4% as a team, one of the five best marks in the league.

Gerrit Cole (SP – NYY): 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher

One pitcher who I expect to hit the over on their strikeout prop is Gerrit Cole. He really started to look like his Cy Young-caliber self in July. He went over 6.5 strikeouts in four of his past five starts. The Cubs struck out 23% of the time as a team in July.

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