Updated:
Aug 22, 2026 , 07:00 AM ET
• 4 min read
15 MLB games and 15 moneyline predictions for Saturday, including the Padres and Casey Mize beating the Twins as -156 favorites!
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Casey Mize of the San Diego Padres MLB
Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions have a nice mix of short favorites and solid underdogs in terrific individual and team matchups, including the San Diego Padres as -156 home favorites when they host the Minnesota Twins.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 22.
MLB moneyline picks for August 22
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-22.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 22
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from the previous two weeks.
Blue Jays vs Yankees: Yankees (-117)
Yankees win probability: 53.9%
New York holds a massive bullpen advantage with a 2.94 SIERA compared to Toronto’s league-worst 5.30 SIERA. While Toronto posted a higher BABIP (.319 vs. .290) and wOBA (.321 vs. .295), the Yankees’ late-inning relief dominance provides the decisive edge to lock down the victory in the late frames.
Braves vs Brewers: Brewers (-127)
Brewers win probability: 55.9%
Milwaukee’s bullpen boasts an elite 3.43 SIERA, easily outclassing Atlanta’s 3.64 mark. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers’ offense has been far superior, posting a .325 wOBA and .330 BABIP against Atlanta’s ice-cold lineup (.264 wOBA, .258 BABIP). Milwaukee holds clear command across the entire plate-discipline and run-prevention profile.
Nationals vs Marlins: Marlins (-170)
Marlins win probability: 63%
Miami holds offensive leverage over Washington during the last two weeks, generating a .329 wOBA and .319 BABIP compared to the Nationals’ .306 wOBA and .299 BABIP. While Washington’s bullpen holds a slight SIERA edge (3.44 vs. 3.77), Miami’s superior efficiency and run creation at the dish should deliver the home victory.
Cardinals vs Phillies: Phillies (-127)
Phillies win probability: 55.9%
Philadelphia matches up cleanly against St. Louis with a superior bullpen SIERA of 3.91 versus the Cardinals’ 4.53 mark. The Phillies’ lineup also holds a distinct offensive edge, posting a higher wOBA (.332 to .329) and BABIP (.297 to .288) to control the scoreboard in this home matchup.
Rays vs Orioles: Rays (-122)
Rays win probability: 55%
Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-144)
Rangers win probability: 59%
Texas gets home-field positioning despite the Angels boasting a slate-best 2.92 bullpen SIERA over Texas’s 4.40 mark. While Los Angeles produced a slightly higher wOBA (.285 vs. .267) and BABIP (.299 vs. .264) recently, the Rangers’ overall lineup and starting pitching edge should carry them through.
Athletics vs Astros: Athletics (+213)
Athletics win probability: 31.9%
The Athletics hold significant offensive leverage over ice-cold Houston, outproducing the Astros in wOBA (.319 vs. .269) and BABIP (.273 vs. .226). While Houston maintains a bullpen edge (3.52 vs. 4.36 SIERA), laying -223 chalk on a sub-.270 wOBA lineup is unwise, making the A’s a live dog.
Mets vs White Sox: White Sox (-108)
White Sox win probability: 51.9%
The White Sox offense has been scorching, posting a slate-best .341 wOBA alongside a .291 BABIP to outpace the Mets (.321 wOBA, .285 BABIP). With Chicago’s bullpen also holding a clear SIERA advantage (4.00 vs. 4.35), the White Sox are primed to take this near coin-flip contest.
Giants vs Red Sox: Giants (+178)
Giants win probability: 36%
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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