Updated:
Aug 31, 2026 , 03:52 PM ET
• 4 min read
Multiple studies have examined the strong correlation between turnover margin and win probability. We break down the results and tell you what they mean for the 2026 NFL season.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn.
Every season, many assume that NFL teams that were good and bad the previous season (barring huge roster turnover) are largely going to perform similarly in the upcoming season.
However, as some more well-versed bettors know, there are some key indicators that can help identify which teams over- and underperformed in the win column. One of those key indicators is turnover margin.
Turnover margin at a glance:
• Teams that win the turnover margin win the game almost 70% of the time
• Since 2016, teams that had a double-digit positive turnover margin saw an average decrease of 10.5 in their margin in the following year
• Turnovers are predictive of future performance
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The importance of turnovers
In a study conducted by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, it was found that a team that wins the turnover margin in a game wins 69.6% of the time. To demonstrate the relative strength of turnover influence, home teams won “just” 57.2% of all games in the same sample.
The effect is compounding as well, as teams that won the turnover margin by two or more won 83.9% of the time, and 90.7% of the time when winning the margin by three or more.
In addition, the study found the effect to be rather significant on a seasonal basis. Each additional positive turnover toward a team’s margin is worth about 0.2 wins, with an R-squared value of 0.419. For the less statistically-inclined, that means that while ignoring all other factors that impact winning and losing (point margin, opponents faced, etc.), turnover margin explained 41.9% of the variation in regular-season wins.
Applying this concept to the 2022 season, the Top 15 teams in turnover margin were no worse than one game under .500, and seven of the Top 9 teams made the playoffs. Conversely, just one of the Bottom 10 teams in turnover margin had a winning record, and just two of the Bottom 17 teams had such records.
Team-to-team effect
Zooming a little farther out, teams since 2016 that had a double-digit positive turnover margin saw an average decrease of 10.3 in their turnover margin in the following year. Those same teams went from averaging 11.2 wins in their turnover-friendly seasons to averaging 9.6 wins in the following season, a 1.6-win decrease.
Only five of the 30 teams to post a +10 or higher turnover margin during this stretch did it again the following year.
Conversely, teams that had a double-digit negative turnover margin during that time saw an average increase of 14.5 turnovers in their turnover margin in the following year. Those teams went from averaging 4.8 wins to 7.3 in the following season, a 2.5-win increase. Only three of the 31 teams to post a -10 or worse turnover margin during this stretch did it again the following year.
Are turnovers predictive?
So, we know over- and underperforming in the turnover category is predictive of future performance, but are turnovers themselves predictable?
As an extension of Harvard Sports Analysis Collective’s findings, they modeled the likelihood of a turnover being attributed to talent as opposed to luck, borrowing some methodology from Tom Tango — a sabermetrician.
The findings showed that about 46% of all turnovers could be attributed to talent (quarterbacks with low/high INT percentages, defensive linemen particularly proficient at strip-sacks, ball-hawk defensive backs, etc.) and the remaining 54% to luck (tipped interceptions, the way the ball bounces on a fumble, etc.).
In essence, fumbles themselves are not very predictable. Given that we know that each incremental fumble toward a team’s turnover margin is equal to about 0.2 wins, this creates both positive and negative performances that are extremely hard to repeat at both ends of the turnover margin spectrum. This contributes to misled optimism and pessimism toward these extreme performers when it comes to predicting the future success and failure of teams.
NFL turnover margin FAQs
NFL teams are averaging 1.29 turnovers per game in the 2020-21 season.
Turnover margin has a significant impact on winning in the NFL Teams that win the turnover margin win the game almost 70 percent of the time.