Best HR Picks & Parlay for September 4

Updated:
Sep 4, 2026 , 04:20 PM ET

• 4 min read

Going yard on Friday! We’re backing Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone to clear the fence tonight as the Royals duo headline our top MLB home run picks.

Friday! The weekend has finally arrived. While some will be gearing up for Week 1 of college football, some of us will still be sweating out longballs.

Without further ado, here are my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight’s MLB slate, highlighted by Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone & Jordan Walker.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carter Jensen	18%
Jac Caglianone	19%
Jordan Walker	21%
💲Today’s HR parlay	104.89x

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Home run prediction: Carter Jensen (20%)

The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is the worst-rated pitcher in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset this evening. In that same dataset, Carter Jensen owns the third-highest matchup rating, behind only Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone.

Jensen has been tearing the cover off the baseball over his last 10 games, sporting a .914 SLG and .543 ISO while posting a 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.

Over his last 60 left-handed hitters, Taillon has allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .360 xBA, .597 xSLG and .388 xwOBA.

With the entire Royals lineup likely humming around Jensen, the home run upside is even more amplified.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (23%)

It was nearly impossible for me to pinpoint which Royal was in a better spot, so I took both Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.

The Royals’ young power hitters find themselves with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day, while covering nearly 100% of Taillon’s entire pitch mix. Through 30 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Caglianone has left the yard 22% of the time.

Across the big fella’s last 10 games, he sports a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

The entire Kansas City Royals lineup in a great spot, Jensen and Caglianone are the two that stood out the most.

Take this down to 25%.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Jordan Walker (21%)

For this game being played at Coors Field, still getting a price around 20% is great, especially when backing a power hitter like St. Louis Cardinals big man Jordan Walker.

In his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, Walker has been creating a ton of hard contact while owning a .483 SLG and .207 ISO. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate, while producing just a 30% ground-ball rate.

Walker draws Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner, who has allowed a barrel rate over 15%, 4.05 HR/9 and a .720 SLG to opposing hitters in his last three starts at home.

Hopefully, Walker can stay hot and connect with a weak offering from Feltner.

Take this down to 24%.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CARD

Best home run combo for September 4

Carter Jensen	Trade Now 104.89x
Jac Caglianone
Jordan Walker

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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