Updated:
Sep 25, 2026 , 10:02 PM ET
• 4 min read
A lot of teams are cruising down Easy Street against nobodies, while top-ranked teams are testing other programs. Will those easy strolls come back to bite some of these teams in the rear?
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Tyrell Henry (0) during the game.
After we lost a heartbreaker in the NC State/Vanderbilt game, we pick our heads up and look to Week 4 to get us back on track. This week’s college football underdog picks are ready to deliver.
I found three underdogs with some bite on this week’s slate, and I believe all three have a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.
Let’s go hunting for some upsets.
Before you dive in, check out all of our college football picks for Week 4 action.
CFB Week 4 underdog picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Wisconsin |
24% |
 Michigan State |
36% |
 Wyoming |
44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Wisconsin (vs. Penn State)
Kalshi probability: 24%
Entering the 2026 college football season, I said that I loved this schedule for the Penn State Nittany Lions, who brought in a ton of talent while getting Matt Campbell to lead the program this offseason. I liked them for the exact reason I am looking to fade them this week: They have played nobody.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been cruising down Easy Street for three weeks, and now they draw the Wisconsin Badgers, who have at least played Notre Dame. At least the Badgers got a taste of some Top 10-ranked competition.
Despite getting blown out by 28 points as 21.5-point dogs, the Badgers did not look awful against the Irish. They put up more than 280 total yards while averaging nearly five yards per play. If they had not turned the ball over twice, it would be interesting to see how close the game could have been had they played a clean game.
With Penn State’s season not really starting for another two weeks, as it doesn’t play a ranked opponent until USC on Oct. 10, I expect the Nittany Lions to slip up in one of these games.
Michigan State (vs. Nebraska)
Kalshi probability: 36%
Following their battle against Notre Dame, Pat Fitzgerald and the Michigan State Spartans host the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Similar to all the teams I am looking to fade this week, Nebraska has not played a soul this season. The Cornhuskers have gone through the MAC, playing Bowling Green and Ohio, before taking on North Dakota last week.
Yup, they should be ready for real competition.
I say that while Michigan State has taken on Toledo and Eastern Michigan. However, at least the Spartans endured No. 3 Notre Dame. Holding the Fighting Irish to under 30 points is still pretty impressive, despite Michigan State managing just 167 total yards.
If the Spartans can take the lessons from the mistakes they made and the level of competition they endured last week and put them toward a home win over the Cornhuskers, they can keep this close.
Wyoming (vs. Hawaii)
Kalshi probability: 44%
People often forget how weird things get up in Laramie, Wyoming. Luckily for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, this is not a night game, when things can get really weird.
However, this is not only a very heavy travel matchup for the Rainbow Warriors, but also a 9 a.m. island-time kickoff. Sure, Hawaii is coming off a bye, but it is still tough to travel across the Pacific and gear up to play a full game at what your body thinks is bright and early.
The Wyoming Cowboys have maintained a very balanced offense that slightly leans toward the run, which is how they should attack this very underwhelming Rainbow Warriors rush defense. Through the early going, the Rainbow Warriors rank 93rd in opponent rush yards per game and 97th in opponent yards per rush. Wyoming is averaging nearly five yards per carry while racking up more than 150 rushing yards per game.
If Hawaii is going to be a revolving door on defense, this should be a great spot for Wyoming to secure an outright win at home.
Week 4 underdog combo
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Wyoming
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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