Jon Metler
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 27, 2026 , 10:06 PM ET
• 4 min read
Victor Wembanyama is expected to enter the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year market as the favorite.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) celebrates with Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) after scoring against the New York Knicks during game one of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center.
Victor Wembanyama will undoubtedly be the favorite to win the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award when the market opens on Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
Wembanyama is the clear favorite, but who could make a push if he slips? Chet Holmgren, his biggest on-court rival, should be the closest challenger in the market and would love nothing more than to take the award from Wembanyama.
The two battled in the Western Conference Finals, and the race for Defensive Player of the Year could be just as competitive between Wembanyama and Holmgren.
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🏀 NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year favorites
Victor Wembanyama
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year should be a massive favorite in this market when the odds drop on Polymarket. Wembanyama’s status really comes down to whether he can play 65 games. As long as he’s on track to reach that threshold, he should remain the favorite.
That being said, the Spurs are coming off a long season that saw them play into June in the NBA Finals. San Antonio could be extra cautious with Wembanyama this season as it focuses on the ultimate goal of winning the NBA Finals.
Chet Holmgren
Both Wembanyama and Holmgren have the exact narrative you want when it comes to winning this award: They’re defensive anchors on top defensive teams that are also among the best teams in the NBA. Team success matters in this market, as does playing for a team that ranks among the league’s best defensively.
Much like Wembanyama’s chances hinge on playing 65 games, I have a hard time seeing Holmgren wrestle this award away from him if Wembanyama reaches that threshold. Holmgren essentially needs Wembanyama to be ruled ineligible to have a realistic shot in this market.
Wembanyama has averaged more than three blocks per game in each of his first three seasons, while Holmgren’s career high is 2.3. It’s difficult to overlook that kind of gap when voters are looking at the league’s statistical leaders.
Ausar Thompson
Thompson is another player whose chances of winning this award hinge on whether Wembanyama reaches the 65-game threshold. If Wembanyama is ruled ineligible, Thompson is certainly someone who could challenge Holmgren for the award.
Thompson tied Dyson Daniels for the league lead in steals at 2.0 per game last season, despite averaging just 26 minutes per game. If his playing time climbs north of 30 minutes, as expected, Thompson could easily lead the NBA in steals per game.
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2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year opening odds
This section will be updated once Polymarket posts its opening probabilities for Defensive Player of the Year.
- Victor Wembanyama:
- Chet Holmgren:
- Ausar Thompson:
- Scottie Barnes:
- Rudy Gobert.:
- Evan Mobley.:
- Amen Thompson:
- Bam Adebayo:
- Dyson Daniels:
- OG Anunoby:
- Jaren Jackson Jr.:
Opening market probabilities courtesy of Polymarket.
NBA DPOY betting trends
Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on NBA DPOY:
- This is historically a big man’s trophy. 19 of the past 22 winners, and 34 of the 44 overall, have been centers or power forwards.
- No DPOY winner’s team has ever missed the playoffs.
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year history
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds FAQ
Victor Wembanyama is favored to win the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo are tied for the all-time record with four apiece.