Updated:
Sep 29, 2026 , 08:15 AM ET
• 4 min read
Yes, Schlittler is the likely Cy Young this season, but Tolle is no slouch — his .199 xBA, 36% chase rate, and 28% K rate this season is among the best in baseball. Our expert believes runs will be tough to come by in Game 1.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Boston Red Sox pitcher Payton Tolle.
Cam Schlittler takes the ball at home for New York today, and I’m riding with him as part of my Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction for Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series on Tuesday, Sept. 29.
The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox as 59% favorites, and should be able to handle business with their Cy Young candidate on the mound — with or without Aaron Judge.
Tap into my MLB picks, and let’s begin the playoffs with some extra cash in our wallet.
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Cam Schlittler started against the Boston Red Sox four times across the 2026 MLB season: to say he dominated would be an understatement.
Over 24 1/3 innings, he posted a 0.74 ERA and struck out 27. Simply put, he was nearly unhittable, and the Red Sox have some work to do if they want to take Game 1 of the Wild Card series.
Payton Tolle takes the mound for Boston, and while he’s had similar success in this spot in a smaller sample size (0.69 ERA across 13 1/3 innings), I’m leaning toward the New York Yankees’ star power and their ability to hit lefties.
The pinstripes actually own better splits here, rocking a .733 OPS against southpaws.
I’d play this to 61%.
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Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 5.5
We have two aces on the mound who have dominated this matchup all year, with both Schlittler and Tolle rocking a sub-1 ERA against their AL East rival.
Yes, Schlittler is the likely Cy Young this season, but Tolle is no slouch — his .199 xBA, 36% chase rate, and 28% K rate this season is among the best in baseball.
When you tie in their walk rate (both are issuing the free pass at just a 6% clip), each offense will have to earn it. No matter which angle you attack this one at, it smells like an Under.
Comfortably play this to 57%.
COVERS INTEL: Expect plenty of swing-and-miss in Game 1. Thirteen hitters across both lineups finished the regular season with strikeout rates of 25% or higher, and with two elite strikeout pitchers taking the mound, offense will be at a premium.Red Sox vs Yankees weather
We’ll see cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at 60 degrees at first pitch, which won’t impact the game.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 44% | Yankees 57%
- Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (65%) | Yankees -1.5 (36%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (53%)
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittler’s last five starts as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.03 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
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