Shawn Krest
• Betting Analyst
20+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 2, 2026 , 04:27 PM ET
• 4 min read
Tarik Skubal gets the ball for Los Angeles in Game 1, and Shawn Krest likes the left-hander to keep Atlanta’s offense quiet in the NLDS opener.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches.
In a perfect world, the Braves would present a major challenge to the Dodgers in the NLDS, but Atlanta’s rotation has been scrambled after a difficult Wild Card Series against Philadelphia.
With the Braves likely forced into a bullpen game against Tarik Skubal, my Braves vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks have Los Angeles opening the series with a Game 1 win.
Braves vs Dodgers prediction: Dodgers -1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline is too expensive for my liking, so I’ll surrender the 1.5 runs, especially if the probability remains close to 50%. Eleven of the Dodgers’ last 12 wins have come by multiple runs, so laying the extra run isn’t as big a concession as it might seem.
The Dodgers won five of six meetings with Atlanta this season, and the Atlanta Braves’ pitching situation is significantly worse now. Bryce Elder is unlikely to make the NLDS roster because of injury, Spencer Strider is out for the year, and Chris Sale pitched twice during the Wild Card Series and won’t be available Saturday.
AJ Smith-Shawver, who started Atlanta’s other win over Los Angeles, hasn’t made a start in nearly a month. That leaves the Braves likely opening the series with a bullpen game against Skubal.
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Braves vs Dodgers combo
Brent Suter, who opened the second-to-last game of the regular season, is the most likely candidate to start Atlanta’s bullpen game. His 1.424 career WHIP against the Dodgers is his second-highest mark against any National League opponent. Los Angeles has hit .279 with an .846 OPS and 136 OPS+ against him.
The game isn’t likely to completely get out of hand, either. The Dodgers started the season hot, but since July, L.A. ranks 15th in MLB in scoring and 11th in OPS. That middle-of-the-pack offense should be able to grab an early lead against Suter and hold it without necessarily turning the game into a shootout. Only two of the Dodgers’ final 10 games went Over the total.
Braves vs Dodgers combo
- Dodgers -1.5
- Under 8.5 runs
- Dodgers win first 5 innings
TOP PICK
Braves vs Dodgers player prop: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed
The Dodgers were expected to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 1 before switching to Tarik Skubal roughly 25 hours before first pitch, and the matchup helps explain why.
Atlanta hit 10 points lower against left-handed pitching this season while losing roughly 20 points of slugging percentage. The Braves posted a .696 OPS against southpaws, 5% below league average, compared to a .730 OPS and above-average production against right-handers.
Skubal has allowed four or fewer hits in six of his 10 starts as a Dodger, including four of his last six.
COVERS INTEL: After a shaky start with the Dodgers, Los Angeles has won Skubal’s last seven starts, with Skubal earning the decision in five of them. He’s completed at least seven innings four times during that stretch, allowed four hits or fewer four times, and surrendered two runs or fewer in five. Opponents have hit .212 with a .549 OPS against him over the last two weeks, with an OPS+ 46% below league average.Braves vs Dodgers weather
It’s a day game in Los Angeles that will be played under an extreme heat warning, with temperatures expected to reach 101 degrees. There’s no chance of rain and very little wind expected, leaving the heat as the primary weather factor.
Braves vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Braves 34% | Dodgers 66%
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (49%) | Dodgers -1.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Braves vs Dodgers trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in six of their last seven games (+6.00 units / 81% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Braves vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher | TBD |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (12-7, 2.72 ERA) |
Braves vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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