Sam Farley
• Betting Analyst
10+ years betting experience
Updated:
Nov 2, 2026 , 10:04 PM ET
• 4 min read
Injuries rob Bayern Munich of their star men, while Atletico Madrid rob them of the chance to take all three points back to Germany.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Atletico Madrid’s Giuliano Simeone celebrates scoring their second goal.
Tuesday’s Champions League slate sees Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich facing off at the Metropolitano, with both teams having only one win in the competition so far.
My Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich predictions expect Atletico to take something from the game, with Bayern struck by injuries.
Bayern Munich are marginal favorites at 40%, with Atletico Madrid just behind at 35%, and the tie at 25%. Read on for free Champions League picks for Tuesday, Nov. 3, with kickoff at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Top pick: Bayern Munich to win – No | 60% |
| Under 3.5 | 56% |
| Combo | 6.50x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich predictions
My Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich top pick: Bayern Munich to win – No (60% probability)
A fully fit Bayern Munich would beat Atletico with ease, but the Bavarian side are missing key playmakers Jamal Musiala and Luis Diaz. Even more concerning is the news that Michael Olise is potentially missing, too.
Without the direct dribbling of those three, and their ability to transition the ball forwards, it’ll make things hard for Bayern. The replacements are still good players, but not nearly as clinical in front of goal. There’s also a chance that both Manuel Neuer and his backup, Jonas Urbig, miss this game. Being without the two goalkeepers would hugely hinder Bayern.
Atletico have dropped just two points from the past 28 available in all competitions, and they’ve really toughened up defensively, keeping four clean sheets in their past five games. They also welcome Cristian Romero back, further solidifying that defense.
My Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Over/Under pick: Under 3.5 (56% probability)
As well as the aforementioned Bayern absentees, there’s also no Serge Gnabry or Ismael Saibari. The Germans still have Ballon d’Or winner Harry Kane, but the two widemen set to start, Alphonso Davies and Lennart Karl, have just one Bundesliga goal between them this season.
Diego Simeone is the master of defensive soccer and will set his team up to soak up Bayern’s pressure and hit them on the counter, something we’ve seen throughout his tenure. Atletico’s past five games have all had Under 2.5 goals, while only twice all season has an Atletico game seen four or more goals.
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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich combo
Neither team manages to dominate offensively in this combo. Let’s chase longer odds and just play the draw along with the Under at 2.5 instead of 3.5.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds
 Atletico Madrid |
 Bayern Munich |
|
|---|---|---|
| 35% | Moneyline | 40% |
| 25% | Draw | 25% |
| Over 2.5 67% |
Total | Under 2.5 35% |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
| Location | Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Calm and clear |
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich key injuries
Atletico Madrid: Johnny Cardoso CM (Out), Morten Hjulmand CM (Out), Koke CM (Questionable)
Bayern Munich: Serge Gnabry FWR (Out), Jamal Musiala FWR (Out), Luis Diaz FWR (Out), Ismael Saibari STR (Out), Michael Olise FWR (Questionable), Manuel Neuer GK (Questionable), Jonas Urbig GK (Questionable)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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