Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the NFL as a generational WR prospect, burdened by Hall of Fame expectations. His 2024 rookie season with the Arizona Cardinals, while promising, didn’t deliver the immediate, record-shattering impact fantasy managers envisioned. Doubts linger, yet many still believe in his talent and an eventual WR1 destination. Harrison Jr.’s pedigree and college production suggest this path is clear, but translating his dominant skills, Kyler Murray‘s play, and Trey McBride‘s usage present challenges. We’ll identify what needs to happen to realize his coveted upside. His current UDK ADP of 35th overall (WR17) highlights his high value, but his path to WR1 needs clarity.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2024 Season Recap
As the 4th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. was lauded for his refined route running, elite body control, strong hands, and uncanny ability to win contested catches. His rookie campaign yielded 62 receptions and 885 yards on 114 targets, tying the Cardinals’ rookie TD record with eight scores. Week 2 saw an outlier performance with 130 yards and two TDs in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams. Unfortunately, the rest of the season rarely matched this performance. His volume and efficiency were impacted by an inconsistent Cardinals offense and a league-high 45 uncatchable targets. Despite this, he recorded only one drop, showcasing reliable hands. His father, Marvin Harrison Sr., had a similar rookie stat line (64 receptions, 836 yards, eight TDs), going on to a Hall of Fame career, including eight straight seasons of 1,100+ receiving yards and double-digit TDs. Could we see the same evolution for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
The Path to WR1 for 2025
What would Marvin Harrison Jr.’s path to WR1 look like? We’ll benchmark his rookie performance against the average WR12 performances over the last three years (Ladd McConkey 2024, Nico Collins 2023, Christian Kirk 2022).
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Succ% | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt | FPts | FPts/G |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 17 | 116 | 62 | 885 | 14.3 | 8 | 50 | 3.6 | 52.1 | 53.4 | 7.6 | 198.5 | 11.7 |
| 3-year WR12 Average | 16.25 | 118 | 82 | 1184.7 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 57.1 | 5.1 | 74.5 | 69.9 | 10.2 | 246.5 | 15.5 |
Harrison Jr.’s 2024 numbers show his target volume was in range, but significant increases in receptions and yards are needed to reach the top-12 threshold. Some project the Arizona Cardinals to have a top-5 NFL offense in 2025, including Pro Football Network, per their Offense+ metric. If this were to manifest in 2025, it would necessitate an elevation of all key offensive players, including Harrison Jr.
Target Share
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the clear alpha in the Cardinals’ WR corps. However, the Cardinals tied for the second-lowest WR target distribution (48%) in 2024, mainly due to Trey McBride‘s significant role (34% TE target share, T-1st). McBride’s volume presents a challenge to Harrison Jr.’s WR1 path. Despite this, Harrison Jr. held the 10th-best percentage of team WR points (48.1%) and came in 11th in team WR TD percentage (38.1%). McBride’s volume in short/intermediate areas naturally favored him for targets (31% team targets vs. Harrison Jr.’s 22.2%) and receptions (30.8% vs. 16.6%). This gap needs to close in 2025 for the sake of the Cardinal’s overall offensive diversity and Harrison Jr.’s upside.
Receptions and Catch Rate
Harrison Jr.’s hands are excellent, but target quality impacted his 53.4% catch rate, significantly influenced by 45 uncatchable targets dealt his direction by Kyler Murray. If half of those uncatchable targets (approx. 22) became catchable and converted at his catch rate, he would gain around 12 receptions and ~170 yards, pushing him over 1000 yards. Add in 1-2 TDs, and this would have increased his 2024 performance by ~35 fantasy points. Kyler only threw the 7th-fewest bad throws (66) overall, but Harrison Jr. received most of them. It has been reported that they stayed in Arizona after the season to improve their chemistry, which hopefully translates to more catchable targets in 2025.
Harrison Jr. excelled in contested catches against Man coverage (66.7%, 8/12, 4th-best per PFF), but struggled against Zone (25%, 5/20). This was a feature part of his complete portfolio coming out of Ohio State. In 2024, his overall success rate against Zone was 81.1%, compared to 73.1% against Man, making this juxtaposition in his contested catch success rate curious. Kyler Murray mentioned in an interview with Arizona Sports that the “speed of the game” slows down as a player adjusts to each level of play. I imagine Harrison Jr. will benefit as his play speed develops.
One thing Marvin Harrison Jr. has surely developed is his physique! Harrison Jr. underwent a “head-turning physical transformation” this offseason, which Kyler Murray initially “thought was AI,” which should help complete the translation of his contested catch prowess and improve his play strength against Press coverage.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is JACKED 😳🤯
MHJ been living in the weight room this summer 💪
(via @AZCardinals) pic.twitter.com/SCarQYSLqA
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) June 9, 2025
Yards and aDOT
Harrison Jr. was primarily a vertical threat in 2024, reflected by his 14.3 YPR and 14.2 aDOT (16th, min 40 targets). He drew deeper targets against Zone (16.5 aDOT) than Man (14.0 aDOT), which is positive as Zone is more common in the modern NFL. To reach top-12 receiver status, his yards per route run must improve. In 2024, he produced 1.75 YPPR vs Zone (22nd) and 1.7 vs Man (30th), far from the elite mark of around 2.5 YPRR. When looking at his usage and alignments, the data suggests some misuse in the Cardinals’ offense.
Marvin Harrison Jr. 2024 #ReceptionPerception Profile 👀
Went deep on this one as it’s worth a critical check-in on the top receiver taken in last year’s NFL Draft after an up-and-down rookie season.
Some notes:
– 81.1% success rate vs. zone
– 76.1% success rate vs. press… pic.twitter.com/KdyPNEEbep— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 30, 2025
Harrison Jr. was predominantly an outside receiver (79.7% snaps outside). Arizona should consider more slot usage (27% in 2024), leveraging his size/speed for mismatches. For comparison, CeeDee Lamb ran a route out of the slot 55% of his total routes last season. Dallas clearly saw the benefit of creating mismatches for their star WR, and Arizona should take note. Alex D’Agostino from SI suggests, “The more snaps McBride gets as an inline TE, the more opportunity there will likely be for whoever mans the slot position next to him.”
Moving Harrison Jr. around would cause more headaches for opposing DCs, especially when the middle of the defense needs to account for both him and McBride in the same area of the field. This could be a “Win-Win-Win” scenario as it gives Murray two high-level options near the middle of the field where he struggled last season, presents more creative opportunities in the offense, and both McBride and Harrison Jr. could benefit from miscommunications on defense!
New diversity in alignment could create increased synergy between Harrison Jr.’s best routes and Kyler Murray‘s successful passing areas. Murray’s highest passer ratings were deep middle (149.3), left intermediate (116.1), and short right (95.3). Harrison Jr. had high success rates on Dig (87.5%) and Slant (81.6%) routes, which would be highly compatible with the intermediate middle of the field from the slot. While Murray was not particularly good there (78.3 passer rating), the slot alignment potential highlighted above with those two routes could be a boost to the passing game. Underutilizing the Post route (7.1%) to attack the deep middle, despite Murray’s success there, is another missed opportunity. Combinations that were working included Comeback and Out routes to the left intermediate area, though Harrison Jr. only ran the Comeback at the league average frequency (3%). With a better offensive design around players (Harrison Jr. in particular), it should create plenty of opportunities.
TDs
Harrison Jr.’s eight rookie TDs were a highlight, showcasing his scoring ability. Six came within the red zone on 14 targets. The top 12 pass-catchers had a floor of 21 red zone targets per the UDK Red Zone Report, so more opportunities are needed. Trey McBride was a significant red zone target (21 red zone targets, 12th overall; 12 10-Zone targets, 9th overall; 2 TDs in 10-Zone), highlighting his biggest competition. If Kyler Murray‘s red zone efficiency improves and Harrison Jr. earns a larger share of high-value targets, his TD total could easily reach double digits, critical for WR1 fantasy production. Kyler Murray himself acknowledged this in the aforementioned interview with Arizona Sports, stating, “For him to have eight TDs and feel like he didn’t even scratch the surface, that’s saying something… Obviously, me and him have to be better, and we will be better.” If Kyler Murray truly believes they were just “scratching the surface,” it suggests that the Cardinals want to score more with Marvin Harrison Jr.
Conclusion
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s path to becoming a top-12 fantasy WR in 2025 is not just possible, it’s highly probable. His exceptional rookie TD production, despite inconsistent target quality, emphasizes his scoring ability. Improved chemistry with Kyler Murray is highly anticipated, a fact Murray himself acknowledges. This promises a significant reduction in uncatchable targets, directly translating to increased receptions and yardage. Furthermore, Harrison Jr. boasts elite contested-catch ability, particularly against man coverage.
His physical transformation this offseason also positions him for greater efficiency on every target. Trey McBride‘s presence creates target competition. Yet, it also presents opportunities for Harrison Jr., who remains the undisputed alpha receiver. Strategic adjustments to his route tree are crucial, potentially including more slot work. Coupled with an overall offensive step forward from the Cardinals, Harrison Jr. is primed to exceed lofty expectations. He will firmly cement his status among the league’s fantasy elite. This could be the lowest cost to acquire Marvin Harrison Jr. in all formats. “Bet on the talent,” as they say, and get him onto your rosters for your 2025 campaign of dominance!