As we move through late July, it’s time to get the player tiers out to you. The Shuffle Up series returned this week, hitting the four major positions. We’ve already worked through the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Today, we tackle the final assignment, the tight ends.
What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same salary are considered even.
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I’m more likely to roster a vanity tight end if the starting requirements are modest at wide receiver. When a format requires me to run out three or more wideouts (and, to be transparent, I like those formats), my builds will be WR-heavy. The one vanity tight end I’m likely to target is George Kittle, because I think the market is giving you a round or two discount in some rooms.
As always, season these sheets to taste. You know your room better than an outsider ever could.
[Scott’s Rankings Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE]
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
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Kittle’s production spiked last year when Deebo Samuel Sr. wasn’t available, and now Samuel is out of the building completely. And while there is talent in the San Francisco receiver room, it comes with conditions — Brandon Aiyuk probably won’t be ready for opening day, Jauan Jennings is still fairly unproven (and unhappy about his contract) and Ricky Pearsall returns from an offseason hamstring injury. Kyle Shanahan’s schemes are always fun to invest in, and Brock Purdy is probably a plus-quarterback. Note that Yahoo rooms are pricing Kittle in the low-30s, but his global ADP is about one round cheaper.
Bowers scoring just five touchdowns last year was a stone fluke, a comment about the dysfunction at quarterback. Geno Smith moves in and represents an upgrade, though Smith had his own red-zone difficulties last year. The Raiders should employ a narrow passing tree, though I doubt Pete Carroll will allow this team to be fourth in pass attempts again. I recognize Sam LaPorta and Kyle Pitts were not able to carry over their smash rookie seasons into sophomore production, but the runout will probably be more favorable for Bowers.
It was surprising to see McBride go without a touchdown for so long in 2024, although that’s been the story of his pro career. He’s played 49 games, absorbed 292 targets, caught 221 passes — and scored just seven times. It’s fair to wonder if Kyler Murray is simply too short to see the most efficient options in the red area. It would be foolish to project a high-volume player like McBride to score just three times again, but I don’t think the positive regression wave is going to be as strong as the market might expect.
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Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
For most of the spring, I was sure I wouldn’t be drafting Kelce this year. He’s entering his age-36 season and his YPC tumbled to 8.5 last fall. But Kelce’s volume always comes guaranteed in Kansas City — he’s had at least 103 targets for 10 straight years, with an average of 131 — and the Chiefs might be managing a Rashee Rice suspension at some point in 2025. Kelce doesn’t move as well as he once did, but he’s always going to be 6-foot-5 — the biggest target downfield, the immovable object. Kelce’s fantasy floor is sturdy enough that I’ll consider him at his current Yahoo ADP in the mid-60s.
No Green Bay pass-catcher has seen more than 100 targets since Davante Adams left town — last year Kraft rose to TE7 despite a paltry 70 opportunities. The good news is that when Green Bay did design something for Kraft, it came with a splash play or a touchdown in mind. His 14.1 YPC stood second at the position (just an eyelash behind the amazing Kittle) and 11 of Kraft’s catches went for 20 yards or more. You can get into trouble sometimes with the assumption of rational coaching, but Matt LaFleur is a shrewd play-caller and you’d suspect Kraft should at least see a mild uptick in his workload. Yahoo drafters are pricing Kraft just outside the top 100, an ADP I will gladly accept.
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Somehow, Josh Allen won his first MVP award despite an oddball collection of targets — Mack Hollins of all people led this team with touchdown receptions, and the count was only five. Khalil Shakir is effective as a chain-moving slot player, but there’s not a lot of explosiveness to his game. It’s been stunning to see Kincaid average just 9.6 YPC as a pro — he moves far too well for that — although knee and shoulder issues curtailed his effectiveness in the second half. Perhaps we’ve been spoiled with early-career tight ends in recent seasons, players who hit the ground running right away. The old methodology was to target a tight end in his third or fourth season for a possible spike, and with that in mind, appreciate that Kincaid is entering Year 3 of his career.
Tier 3: Some Plausible Upside
If you want to argue that Engram is better off with the 2025 Broncos than the 2024 Jaguars, I won’t disagree with you. But we’re still talking about an age-31 player who’s had trouble scoring (just 19 touchdowns in his last seven games) and getting downfield (8.2 YPC the last two seasons). Bo Nix proved a capable quarterback as a rookie, but he’s probably short of a kingmaker. Engram has felt overpriced to me the entire summer draft season.
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Even with two superstar receivers in Dallas, there should be enough left over for Ferguson, provided Dak Prescott can stay healthy. Ferguson cut a TE9 season back in 2023, then had a 10-93-3 playoff detonation against the Packers that January. I realize new OC Brian Schottenheimer carries a run-first reputation, but given the pedestrian backs the Cowboys have assembled, I still see Dallas as a possible shootout team. Ferguson’s tempting Yahoo ADP lands outside the top 120.
Tier 4: Bargain Bin
[Scott’s Rankings Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE]
