Aaron Judge has landed on the IL with a flexor strain in his right elbow, vaulting Cal Raleigh into striking range in the AL MVP market.
Photo By – IMAGN Images. Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh is making waves.
Aaron Judge is set to hit the IL following a flexor strain in his right elbow, and MLB odds have reacted as you might expect.
With the New York Yankees superstar sidelined for at least the next 10 days, Cal Raleigh has pulled closer in the AL MVP race.
Let’s break down the latest AL & NL MVP odds.
Odds to win AL MVP 2025
Odds last updated on 7-26.
AL MVP odds analysis
Aaron Judge was a late scratch from Saturday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, and imaging later revealed a flexor strain in his right elbow.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone announces Aaron Judge has a flexor strain in his right elbow and will be placed on the IL. pic.twitter.com/UupLQsDSjy
— MLB (@MLB) July 26, 2025
Most sportsbooks have pulled the AL MVP market altogether — many books take down futures as games get underway — but FanDuel has kept the odds live. The spectre of a long-term injury, even the mere POSSIBILITY of one, is enough for Judge to lose serious ground as the favorite, with Cal Raleigh now listed at -105 and the Yankees captain slipping to -125.
This has also shortened the odds for long shots further down the board, like Tarik Skubal, Jose Ramirez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Byron Buxton, each of whom was +10000 or longer just a few days ago.
If Judge’s injury proves to be minor and he returns to the Yankees’ lineup within 10 days, this could end up looking like a knee-jerk overreaction. However, given his lengthy injury history, if he’s sidelined for a more extended period, the MVP race will become far more intriguing — especially if the Yankees continue to lose ground in the AL East during his absence.
Odds to win NL MVP 2025
Odds last updated on 7-23.
NL MVP odds analysis
Since returning to the mound, Shohei Ohtani has a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings. That’s not a massive sample, but it doesn’t have to be to tip the scales in his favor. He’s pitching effectively in addition to slugging the crap out of the baseball.
The two-way star is slashing .274/.377/.616 with 36 home runs. While his 13 stolen bases are well off the 59 he swiped last season, he’s likely playing it safe so he limits any potential exposure to injury, particularly from the pitching perspective. The power numbers remain off the charts, and he could easily eclipse the 54 long balls from 2024, which were a career high.
Barring injury, I doubt anyone catches him at this rate.
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MVP betting splits
American League MVP
Highest Ticket%
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals – 20.9%
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners – 11%
- Tarik Skubal, Tigers – 6.9%
Highest Handle%
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners – 33%
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals – 17.5%
- Aaron Judge, Yankees – 9%
Biggest Liability
National League MVP
Highest Ticket%
- Elly De La Cruz, Reds – 12.4%
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs – 11.9%
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers – 11.4%
Highest Handle%
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers – 38.9%
- Juan Soto, Mets – 8.1%
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs – 8%
Biggest Liability
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs
Data courtesy of BetMGM.
Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a three-time winner. Bryce Harper has won twice with two different teams and Miguel Cabrera was the last player to win back-to-back MVP awards (2012-13). Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven)
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 24 while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
Previous NL MVP winners
Popular MLB futures markets
MLB MVP odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Goldschmidt ran away with the MVP award in 2022 his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number for a large part of the season.
That means that a bettor in August had to wager $6,000 to win $100 by betting on Goldy to win MVP. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
That means a bettor would have profited $200 for a $100 wager on Ohtani before the season started.
If American odds aren’t your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
MLB MVP FAQ
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is currently favored at -125.
Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani is the betting favorite to win NL MVP.
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won his second AL MVP trophy after hitting 58 home runs with a .322/.48/.701 slash line.
Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani became the first pure DH in MLB history to win an MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer’s Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.