MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (7/27)

We have some large slates today to choose from. The DraftKings DFS slate begins at 11:35 a.m. ET, as does FanDuel’s main slate.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/27)

• Paul Skenes is going against the best offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’m not sure it matters, though. For one, who knows what the Diamondbacks’ lineup will look like in a few hours with the trade deadline approaching? For two, Paul Skenes has given up over three earned runs once, going back to the beginning of May. The Pirates are cautious with his innings, so he has to be efficient.
• Both starters in the Brewers and Marlins game are intriguing. I chose Eury Perez over Brandon Woodruff mainly due to a slightly bigger sample size this year from him. He has won three of his last four starts with 26 strikeouts to only three walks.
• If you’re looking for a bargain shopper, check out Joey Cantillo. He has a difficult matchup against a Kansas City team that only strikes out 17.7% of the time against left-handed pitching. However, since moving into the starting rotation in Cleveland, he has 23 strikeouts in 17 innings, which is 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (7/27)

We have some large slates today to choose from. The DraftKings DFS slate begins at 11:35 a.m. ET, as does FanDuel’s main slate.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/27)

• Paul Skenes is going against the best offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’m not sure it matters, though. For one, who knows what the Diamondbacks’ lineup will look like in a few hours with the trade deadline approaching? For two, Paul Skenes has given up over three earned runs once, going back to the beginning of May. The Pirates are cautious with his innings, so he has to be efficient.
• Both starters in the Brewers and Marlins game are intriguing. I chose Eury Perez over Brandon Woodruff mainly due to a slightly bigger sample size this year from him. He has won three of his last four starts with 26 strikeouts to only three walks.
• If you’re looking for a bargain shopper, check out Joey Cantillo. He has a difficult matchup against a Kansas City team that only strikes out 17.7% of the time against left-handed pitching. However, since moving into the starting rotation in Cleveland, he has 23 strikeouts in 17 innings, which is 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (7/27)

• If you believe in the revenge game narrative, go ahead and fade Walker Buehler against the Dodgers. I tend to side with statistical evidence instead of narratives. Buehler has a 7.58 ERA, 6.80 FIP and a 25:21 strikeout-to-walk ratio dating back to the start of June.
• Dodgers hitters have been shockingly cold recently. In July, only the Orioles and Pirates have a lower wRC+. If you can find the money, Shohei Ohtani has not slowed down, hitting eight more home runs this month.
• With all the former MVPs in the Dodgers’ lineup, their second-best hitter all season has been Will Smith. Over the last 28 days, he has a 1.091 OPS. As with any catcher, make sure that he is in the lineup.
• While not a lot of the Dodgers will have faced Buehler, one who has is Freddie Freeman. Relative to expectations, Freeman is mired in a slump with one home run since May 13th. That may change today as Freeman is 5-for-18 against Buehler in his career with a couple of home runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Lineup (7/27)

• Toronto is on such a roll offensively that the matchup may not matter. Going back to the start of June, no team has a higher wRC+ than the Blue Jays at 117. They continue to lead in the month of July, all the way up to 132. Today, they are opposed by the erratic Jack Flaherty. Over his last seven starts, he has an ERA of 7.79 and a FIP of 5.47.
• Let’s start with some of the bigger names on the team. Which Blue Jay do you think has the highest slugging percentage since the start of June? It’s probably not the first person you thought of. It’s Addison Barger at .553. He continues to pummel right-handed pitching with 13 of his 14 home runs coming against right-handers like Flaherty.
• George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continue to hit the ball hard. Springer is in the 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Guerrero is in the 85th percentile. If I had to pick one, it would be Springer, who has six home runs already this month.
• One of the more affordable options in the Blue Jays lineup is Joey Loperfido. He was recalled from Triple-A in early July and has hit the ground running, going 13-for-37 with two home runs. For a bit of cheaper exposure to this lineup, consider the former top prospect.

Core Studs

• I would rarely recommend anyone against Zack Wheeler. Cody Bellinger has his number, though. Bellinger is 6-for-15 against Wheeler in his career with a double and five home runs.
• If you want to get spicy, there is a second Yankees hitter with a history of success against Wheeler. Jazz Chisholm is 6-for-20 against Wheeler with five extra-base hits, including two home runs.
• Junior Caminero is on the road at Great American Ball Park, where he is being opposed by Brady Singer. That’s a park that gives up home runs with a pitcher that has a 40.7% fly ball rate. Don’t be surprised if Caminero connects with a home run today.

Value Plays/Punts

• Christian Walker has looked a lot more like himself in July. He has five extra-base hits, including three home runs. If he keeps this turnaround up, he won’t be a value play much longer.
• Angel Martinez is a switch-hitter who has performed considerably better against left-handed pitching. His OPS against right-handed pitching is .602. Against left-handed pitchers, that number spikes to .894. Today, he is expected to face left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron.
• I’ve mostly avoided Mickey Moniak away from Coors Field, but he already has one home run this series at Baltimore. Today, he faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who gives up fly balls at a nearly 40% rate. In July, only Nick Kurtz and Kyle Stowers have a better OPS than Moniak.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, DH – NYY) — 0.5 Total Bases – Higher

Giancarlo Stanton has had at least one total base in seven of his last eight games. If you expand it out to the entire month of July, he has had at least one total base in 13 out of 17 games. He does have a tough matchup today against Zack Wheeler, though.

Nick Kurtz (1B – DH): – 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

Nick Kurtz is on an absolute tear, going 24-for-41 over his last 10 games with 18 extra-base hits. He has had at least two bases in nine of his 10 games.

Kurtz’s matchup today is against left-handed pitcher Colton Gordon. Left-handed pitchers have been tougher on him, but he is on such a roll that I’m willing to back him today.

J.P. Crawford (SS – SEA): 1.5 Total Bases — Lower

On the opposite side of the spectrum from Nick Kurtz’s hot streak is J.P. Crawford’s cold streak. He is in a stretch of going 4-for-39.

That cold streak has kept him below 1.5 total bases in eight of his last nine games. Today, he takes on Kyle Hendricks whom he has gone 1-for-3 with a single against in his career.

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