Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
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Ryne Nelson‘s ERA estimators are about half a run higher than his actual 3.52 mark, but that’s still representative of a league average pitcher, usable in favorable scenarios. A perfect example is the Arizona Diamondbacks opening a weekend set in PNC Park against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nelson draws the assignment and will face the lineup with the lowest wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate with a right-hander on the hill.
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Dean Kremer‘s 19.6% strikeout rate is a couple ticks below league average, but he has a chance to nose it up a bit when the Baltimore Orioles welcome the Colorado Rockies to Camden Yards for the opener of a three-game interleague series. The Rockies will be playing their initial road game since the break, and the franchise historically struggles in their first contest after a homestand. Plus, they already sport the league’s highest strikeout rate versus righties.
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Gavin Williams walked at least three hitters in each of his six outings heading into the break. With a few days to reflect, the Cleveland Guardians’ right-hander’s first outing when play resumed was a seven-inning gem where he yielded just one run to The Athletics Athletics, punching out 11 while issuing just one free pass. The Guardians have a knack for fixing issues and in his last outing, Williams threw fewer four-seam fastballs while increasing sinker and sweeper usage. It may have been a one-time game plan, or perhaps a new approach. A start against the Kansas City Royals is the perfect opportunity to stay on a roll as they sport the third lowest wOBA versus right-handers fueled by the lowest walk rate.
Hitters to stream on Friday
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Southpaw Joey Wentz pitched well in three outings since being signed by the Atlanta Braves, but he struggled earlier in the season and for most of his major league career. The Texas Rangers are using a heavy platoon approach, with Michael Helman, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung all enjoying the platoon edge from prominent lineup spots when the Braves visit the Rangers this evening.
Hitters to avoid on Friday
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As a club, the Guardians are mid-pack in terms of steals. They have only two players with double-digit bags: Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan. Expect it to stay that way with a weekend trip against the Royals on the docket. The Kansas City battery remains the best at controlling the running game, allowing just 15 swipes all season. Next lowest is the Philadelphia Phillies with 30. Clearly, there is no benching Ramirez since he contributes so much more than 31 steals. However, Kwan, along with teammates Nolan Jones and Daniel Schneemann are best avoided this weekend since they need their occasional pilfer to be fantasy relevant.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day’s games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
