The sun may rise in the east, but it sets in the NFC West. Footballers HQ wraps up another year of divisional breakdowns by closing things out with the one that hits closest to home. Are the Cardinals coming out on fire, favored in five of their first six games? Can the Rams overcome last year’s -19 scoring differential? Will the Seahawks make the playoffs after a 10-win season fell short? Is Coach Shanahan bringing the 49ers back to relevance via the league’s easiest schedule?
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Let’s Get Divisional!
Los Angeles Rams (10 -7)
Additions: WR Davante Adams
Subtractions: WR Cooper Kupp, WR Demarcus Robinson
Rookies: TE Terrance Ferguson (Round 2), RB Jarquez Hunter (Round 4), WR Konata Mumpfield (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Snapshot
| Team | PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA/Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| LAR | 19 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 9 | 23 | 15 | 15 | 21 |
The Rams pulled off one of the most improbable division titles in recent memory. After starting 1-4, they ripped off a 9 -3 finish despite a -19 scoring differential. For context, that’s the worst ever for a 10-win division champ. They went 9-5 in one-score games and now face one of the league’s toughest schedules in 2025, ranked 13th hardest by Warren Sharp.
Last year, the offense was off-brand for Coach Sean McVay. The Rams posted their lowest pass rate (58%) and no-huddle rate (8.6%) since he took over as HC. They ranked just 25th in Pass Rate Over Expectation and leaned heavily on Kyren Williams, who went hamburglar in red-zone work. Williams handled 87% of snaps, 83% of rush attempts, and 83% of RB targets. This workhorse trend delivered 31 TDs over his last 28 games.
Matthew Stafford, now the second-oldest starting QB in the league (37.4), topped 300 passing yards just twice and looks like a matchup-based streamer moving forward. Puka Nacua remains the headliner at receiver, leading all wideouts in receiving yards while in motion and posting the third-best yards per route run season since 2006.
Tyler Higbee returns at TE, but keep an eye on rookie Terrance Ferguson, who led the rookie class in YAC. He’s not a second-round pick for blocking, but there’s upside in the fantasy realm. The defense ranked 9th in points allowed after the Week 6 bye and should continue trending up.
Seattle Seahawks (10 – 7)
Additions: QB Sam Darnold, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, QB Drew Lock
Subtractions: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, TE Noah Fant
Rookies: TE Elijah Arroyo (Round 2), QB Jalen Milroe (Round 3), WR Tory Horton (Round 5), TE Robbie Ouzts (Round 5), RB Damien Martinez (Round 7), WR Ricky White III (Round 7).
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 7.5
2024 Offensive Snapshot
| Team | PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA/Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| SEA | 17 | 15 | 5 | 28 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
In true Seattle fashion, the Seahawks made history in all the wrong ways. The Hawks were the only team in the last decade to start 3-0, win 10 games…and miss the playoffs. A 6-3 record in one-score games fell short in scooping up a wildcard spot. Despite the heartbreak, there’s optimism heading into 2025 with the 13th-easiest schedule.
The offense had moments but fell from 5th to 24th in turnovers, leading to a catch ya’ later exit of OC Ryan Grubb. Still, the team ranked in the top six in both rush rate and EPA. Kenneth Walker (KenBone) forced the most missed tackles in the league and ranked 3rd in yards after contact, while increasing his receiving workload to a career-best 24% route involvement. It helps that Zach Charbonnet is there to plug and play whenever the injury bug sinks its teeth into Walker.
Sam Darnold takes over at QB after going 11-6 against the spread last year (4 – 1 as an underdog). He threw for 33 TDs and posted the longest average time to throw in the NFL with a SWEET 2.99 seconds. The stage is set for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to become a superstar after a 100+ catch season at age 22. The hope is that the addition of Cooper Kupp opens up more space for JSN.
At TE, AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo are intriguing breakout candidates with the removal of Noah Fant. A world exists where one of these catches 50 or more passes.
Arizona Cardinals (8 – 9)
Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett
Subtractions: WR Zach Pascal
Rookies: No offensive skill positions drafted
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Snapshot
| Team | PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA/Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| ARI | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
The Cardinals pulled off a rare feat in 24: 8+ wins, a division-leading scoring differential, and…still a 3rd place finish. They were the only team in the last eight years to check all three boxes, a testament to how brutal their early schedule was (six of their first seven games were against playoff teams). They finished 3-5 in one-score games, but start this season favored in their first six.
Offensively, they ran the ball well. Arizona ranked in the top three in adjusted yards before contact and led the league with 60% MAN/GAP schemes. James Conner again posted 1,000+ yards and was one of just three RBs to average 15+ carries and 3+ receptions per game (Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara). Rookie Trey Benson started slow but looked competent enough to handle double-digit carries if needed.
Kyler Murray served up up-and-down play again. He averaged 34 rushing yards per game, but his passing efficiency fluctuated – elite on play-action but 22nd vs the blitz. Marvin Harrison Jr. enters his sophomore year after joining an exclusive club of rookie WRs to hit 880+ yards and 8+ TDs. His 21% target share looks to be higher this year.
Trey McBride quietly posted the fourth-most receptions by a TE in a season all-time and led the position in first-read targets. If he’s not allergic to TDs in 2025, there’s more upside to grab. With continuity across offense and defense, the Cardinals look poised to take a step forward.
San Francisco 49ers (6 – 11)
Additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Demarcus Robinson
Subtractions: WR Deebo Samuel, RB Elijah Mitchell, QB Joshua Dobbs
Rookies: WR Jordan Watkins (Round 4), RB Jordan James (Round 5), QB Kurtis Rourke (Round 7), WR. Junior Bergen (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5
2024 Offensive Snapshot
| Team | PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA/Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| SF | 14 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
The 49ers collapsed down the stretch last season, losing seven of their final eight games and finishing 2-6 in one-score games. It was their worst record under Kyle Shanahan since 2018. Do NOT count them out; there’s a silver lining for the coming season. They now benefit from a last-place schedule and are favored in 15 of 17 games. Vegas projects them as a bounce-back team, with the third-highest team implied point totals in the league.
San Fran sputtered often. After years of leading the league in YAC, they dropped to just 5.3 (16th in the NFL) and struggled early, ranking dead last through the first month. Christian McCaffrey dominates when on the field, thanks to a 21 opportunity/115 yards per game average in 2.5 years as a 49er. Isaac Guerendo flashed in limited work and ranked in the top seven in multiple rushing efficiency metrics.
Brock Purdy regressed in TD rate but quietly added value with his legs, with 21% of his fantasy points coming via rushing, the 11th-highest rate among QBs. The WR room looks promising on paper, but concerns about injuries are rampant. Brandon Aiyuk‘s injury timeline raises concerns about when he’ll return to the field. However, Jauan Jennings flashed elite per-route metrics, and Ricky Pearsal is currently bullet-free after not getting shot this year. There’s gold to mine here.
George Kittle morphed into a red zone monster, leading all TEs in red zone target rate and posting the best fantasy efficiency of his career. The Niners are motivated, loaded with talent, and play an easy schedule. A return to double-digit wins is firmly in play.
