Farmer’s best bet: Jonquel Jones will pick up the slack in Breanna Stewart’s absence.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Jonquel Jones drives to the hoop against Brittney Griner.
The entire WNBA season almost tilted this weekend. Breanna Stewart’s non-contact injury in a Saturday night loss could have crushed the New York Liberty’s title hopes.
Instead, the New York superstar is expected to miss only a short-term stretch, beginning tonight against the Dallas Wings. Her absence does not inherently bring value to the home underdogs. Rather, my Liberty vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks see value in the paint for New York at tip at 8 ET on Monday, July 28.
Liberty vs Wings predictions
My Liberty vs Wings best bet: Jonquel Jones Over 15.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Breanna Stewart lives in the lane more than the general public realizes. She may stand tall yet not towering at 6-foot-4, but her 7-foot-1 wingspan makes Stewart one of the most physical players in the WNBA.
Missing her for a few games creates a hole in the New York Liberty rotation. Or, it would have before Jonquel Jones returned from her second sprained ankle of the season. One of the best post players in the WNBA, Jones has already cleared this points prop in two of her three games since that injury, all in the last week.
She has not shot well — 38.5% — but logic expects that to improve. Jones was shooting 48.5% before her first sprained ankle this season. It’s understandable to need a few games to find her rhythm after a month layoff, but that early-season form should come.
And now her shot attempts should rise. Jones has averaged 13 shots per game in her return. With Stewart now sidelined, a healthy share of her 13.6 shots per game should go to Jones. Running the offense through her in the post is the closest thing to Stewart available, and thus, that approach would allow New York’s offense to keep working without much adjustment.
Jones would be a viable bet to clear this prop even with Stewart in the lineup. Without her, Jones should see an emphasis as she improves in her return from injury.
Paige Bueckers pick: Paige goes apple picking
My Paige Bueckers best bet: Over 6.5 assists (+130 at DraftKings)
Pulling Stewart out of New York’s defense will not be as costly as pulling out Jones was, but it will open up passing lanes for opponents. Stewart’s 7-foot-1 wingspan covered more ground than just about anybody else in the WNBA short of Napheesa Collier.
Paige Bueckers is the best Dallas Wings thought to exploit those open passing lanes. She has already averaged 5.6 assists per game in her last five games, smart enough to distribute the ball when defenses understandably focus on her.
Liberty vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Jonquel Jones Over 15.5 points
Paige Bueckers Over 6.5 assists
Liberty moneyline
Trusting New York to win this game may be a worry without Stewart, not to mention with this season’s first matchup against Minnesota looming on Wednesday, but no faith should be put in Dallas.
The Wings have won just one of their last seven games. Bueckers aside, Dallas is not much of an upset threat. Blame the organization, the coaching, and Arike Ogunbowale’s shot selection. Fault whatever you want. The reality is simple: Do not trust the Wings to exceed expectations so aggressively that they spring an upset.
Liberty vs Wings odds
Liberty vs Wings live odds
Liberty vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: New York -8 | Dallas +8
- Moneyline: New York -425 | Dallas +250
- Over/Under: Over 166.5| Under 166.5
Liberty vs Wings trend
The Wings are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 12.8 points in those five ATS losses. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Wings.
How to watch Liberty vs Wings
| Location | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Monday, 7-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX 5 New York, KFAA |
Liberty vs Wings latest injuries
Liberty: Breanna Stewart (Out), Nyara Sabally (Out).
Wings: Maddy Siegrist (Out), Tyasha Harris (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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