In a previous article, I evaluated how we should approach rookie RBs in redraft leagues. In this article, I will be applying the conclusions drawn from my past analyses and applying them to this year’s pool of new rushing talent.
Let’s jump right into things.
First, let’s refresh ourselves on how we should be approaching rookies RBs in redraft. The graphic below shows rookie RB fantasy PPR rankings (to end the season) against their average draft position (ADP, to start the season). We see a fairly linear correlation here: Rookies with high ADPs tend to live up to the hype, and, while less predictable, rookies with lower ADPs often finish low in the final PPR rankings as well. With this in mind, it’s very important to follow the ADP as a true guide for redraft leagues regarding these rookie backs.
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Looking at the visual below, we see a retrospective analysis on rookie RBs from 2018 to 2023, showing how many backs performed better, equal to, or worse than their ADPs.
There are two main takeaways here:
1. Top-ranked rookie RBs don’t disappoint. 83% of rookie backs ranking in the top 20 ADP for overall RBs finished equal to or better than their preseason ranking between 2018 and 2023.
2. Lower-ranked rookie RBs usually don’t underperform either.
Knowing rookie RBs usually operate at their projected level or better, and that highly touted rookies are safe options, let’s take a look at this year’s rookie RB class (top 10).
Ashton Jeanty: ADP 4.8
Omarion Hampton: ADP 17.4
RJ Harvey: ADP 22.6
TreVeyon Henderson: ADP 24.0
Kaleb Johnson: ADP 26.2
Quinshon Judkins: ADP 29.2
Cam Skattebo: ADP 32.6
Bhayshul Tuten: ADP 44.0
Jaydon Blue: ADP 48.3
Dylan Sampson: ADP 57.0
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Based on our evaluations, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton should be valuable, reliable targets for your redraft fantasy leagues. Both being ranked inside the top 20 and with an opportunity to be starters, they are both primed for strong rookie campaigns.
Let’s take a closer look:
Ashton Jeanty only sees competition from veteran (and injury-prone) Raheem Mostert in the Raiders’ backfield. Vegas’ WR room is quite sparse as well, with Jakobi Meyers as the WR1, and little help behind him. Look for Jeanty to be the star of this offense and live up to his hype.
Omarion Hampton will have competition from veterans Najee Harris and Nyheim Hines this upcoming season, but joins a Chargers squad headed by ‘Run the Damn Ball’ Jim Harbaugh. They ran the ball 47.6% of the time last season with a weak backfield; with Hampton and Harris in the backfield, the Chargers are bound to run it more, and historically speaking, Hampton has a strong chance to perform equal to, or higher than, his expectations.
RJ Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson, and Kaleb Johnson are all right inside the 20-29 range, making them solid options for redraft leagues. Just know that historically, it is very unlikely any of them finish better than RB20. Quinshon Judkins just falls outside this range, and with Jerome Ford ahead of him on the depth chart and off-the-field issues, he might not be a great option for this year’s draft. As for Cam Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten, Jayden Blue, and Dylan Sampson, all of these players provide high-upside value. Be careful, however, not to draft them ahead of their ADP.
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