In a previous article, I examined how to approach drafting rookie TEs, specifically in redraft leagues. I did so by comparing rookie TEs’ historical average draft positions (ADPs) to their end-of-season ranking via total points scored amongst all TEs. In this article, I will use what we learned from my prior analyses to evaluate this year’s TE class.
Before we jump into things, let’s refresh ourselves on the results of the previous analyses. We saw that rookie TE production is predicted incredibly well by ADP. The plot below shows ADP vs. final TE rank between 2018 and 2023; evidently, there is a strong positive correlation between the two, especially at ADP 30 and below. As we go lower in ADP rankings, things become less predictable, and the variation from the mean is much greater (more boom or bust).
We also measured the number of TEs that performed better, worse, or equal to expectations during this time frame, based on their ADP group.
There were two main takeaways:
1. Highly touted rookie TEs typically perform as such (67% have performed as good or better than expected since 2018).
2. Lower-ranked rookie TEs have slightly stronger upside than downside.
With this refresher, we can conclude that highly ranked rookie TEs are safe bets. We can also see that TEs at lower ADPs are very risky picks; it is probably best to avoid this.
Let’s now take a look at this year’s rookie TE class.
Tyler Warren, IND: ADP 12.7
Colston Loveland, CHI: ADP 12.3
Mason Taylor, NYJ: ADP 23.0
Elijah Arroyo, SEA: ADP 32.5
Terrance Ferguson, LAR: ADP 32.5
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE: ADP 38.0
Oronde Gadsden II, LAC: ADP 40.0
Gunnar Helm, TEN: ADP 40+
Thomas Fidone II, NYG: ADP 40+
Caleb Lohner, DEN: ADP 40+
Mitchell Evans, CAR: ADP 40+
This TE draft class is quite strong, with two players, Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland, being drafted in the top 15 of all TEs. We can expect both Warren and Loveland to perform at this level for the 2025 season. Both pass catchers were brought in to fill a starting role, giving them the opportunity to prove their merit. Mason Taylor is a name that might slip under many radars, especially in casual fantasy leagues; Taylor could be a huge steal come draft day, and will likely perform at a top 20 TE level this season. While outside the top 3o in ADP, another big steal could be Elijah Arroyo, who is behind just AJ Barner in the Seahawks depth chart. The Ballers have Arroyo ranked ahead of Barner already (30th amongst TEs vs. not ranked).
While Terrance Ferguson is in a similar position to Arroyo, don’t be too keen on his outlook. The Rams’ TE room is crowded with veterans Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, so it might be a steep uphill climb for Ferguson to make an impact. As for the rest of the TE field, it is best to avoid them come draft day. While there very well might be a diamond in the rough amongst this group, it will be more effective to target them once they are on waivers, rather than spending a late-round pick on them during the draft.