The Thursday MLB schedule features just seven games, but some of the top home run hitters in the majors are in action. Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh leads the MLB with 45 home runs, and he will try to get back on track against Baltimore at 1:05 p.m. ET following a pair of hitless outings in the first two games of the series. Later in the day, Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber faces the Nationals, while Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are in action for the Mets. Schwarber is +240 to go yard for the Phillies, and that is one of the MLB HR props that SportsLine’s team is targeting. If you’re interested in MLB betting and wish to use the best sportsbook promos to wager on MLB home run picks on Aug. 14, check out all available offers below:
You can also get our best MLB HR bets from SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists, which uses the SportsLine Projection Model to reveal their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. The model simulates every game 10,000 times and we are up 59.9 units on our individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Brandon Lowe (+375) to homer on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 14:
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Best MLB Best Home Run Bets on Thursday
For more real-time, free sportsbook picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Kyle Stowers, Marlins (+425, BetMGM)
Stowers snapped a four-game slump with a 2-for-4 performance in Miami’s win over Cleveland. He’s been dominant against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .970 OPS and hitting 24 of his 25 home runs against RHPs. He faces Tanner Bibee today, who’s been somewhat vulnerable to left-handed power—lefties have hit 12 HRs off Bibee this season with a .774 OPS. We set Stowers’ line at +330 to homer, but you can find the listed price at BetMGM:
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+240, bet365)
While Schwarber’s line doesn’t offer huge value at +240, our model still sees a positive expected return. He hasn’t homered in his last two games, and the last two times that happened, he went deep in the third. Since June 19th, he hasn’t gone more than three games without a homer. Schwarber has 17 HRs in his last 35 games and 26 of his 42 HRs against RHPs. Nationals’ SP Brad Lord has been solid but less dominant as a starter, and left-handed batters have a .736 OPS against him. We set Schwarber’s line at +215 to homer, and you can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to get $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Eugenio Suarez, Mariners (+375, BetMGM)
You could go with Kyle Tucker at +450 to complete the “Kyle trio,” but our model sees better value in Suárez. This is a buy-low spot—Suárez has struggled since joining the Mariners, but if he were still on the Diamondbacks, his line would likely be closer to +250 in this matchup. He’s hit 26 of his 37 HRs against right-handed pitchers, and Orioles’ SP Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 12 HRs in 11 home starts. We set Suárez’s line at +314 to homer, but you can find this price at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses:
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 95-85-1 roll (+1711) on MLB picks.
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