Hungry for some tips to ensure a top-end finish to your season? I got you. Overcomplication is the riptide lurking beneath the surface of fantasy football, ready to drag you down the moment you dive in. We’re here to avoid that. We’ll use basic behavioral economic principles to understand the minds of your league mates – and perhaps even give you some insights to help you better understand yourself.
Don’t Chase Last Week’s Points
Recency Bias: the tendency to put too much weight on the most recent events when making decisions.
So, a free agent, low usage WR got two targets and landed two 40-yard TDs? Cool, you’ll see league mates run to the waiver wire to pick him. Just because he did it once does not mean he will do it again. Managers overreact to big performances without looking at the opportunity metrics like targets for WRs or carries for RBs. Chasing points this way often leads to disappointment because decisions based on past events reduce the likelihood of future success.
- DO: trust weekly rankings, projections, and usage trends.
- DON’T: follow highlight reels and weekly outlier scores.
If a player is consistently seeing targets, touches, or snaps, that’s a far better predictor of future points than one enormous highlight reel play. Staying disciplined helps you avoid overpaying on waivers or plugging the wrong guy into your lineup because of what happened last Sunday.
Balance Safety and Upside
Risk aversion: the tendency to prefer a smaller, safer payoff over a riskier but potentially larger one.
The enemy of great is good! Risk aversion is a trap many newer players step into because they draft “good” but low-ceiling players. Think of it like flooding your house so it doesn’t burst into flames. Missing the playoffs because of excessive caution will cost your team potential points and, most importantly, a championship run opportunity.
The best approach is to balance safety and upside. Think of veterans as chaperones who provide a steady floor and points early in the season, while they escort the rookies or breakout players as their upside/usage ramps up.
Let’s use Barkley as your first-round pick; he’s an excellent chaperone to pair with players like Braelon Allen, Trey Benson, Rico Dowdle, or Jaydon Blue. These late picks could either fade into committee roles or explode if injury or opportunities open up. Pairing them with an incumbent gives you floor (reliability) while still giving yourself exposure to ceiling (upside) for players that could potentially win matchups for you.
Put Players in Tiers
Choice Architecture: the idea that the way options are presented influences decisions.
In fantasy football, tiers are a way to simplify your choices when the draft begins. Instead of looking at one long list of names your draft spits out and taking whoever is at the top of the list, you group players with similar value into tiers. Organizing your draft this way prevents panic when the clock is ticking because you’re choosing from a pool of equally strong options rather than being limited to one name. See the UDK tiers here (far right column), and we’ll break it down:
Let’s use Chase Brown and Alvin Kamara as examples. If you draft Saquon Barkley early at pick 1.02 – 1.04ish, you don’t need to force another RB like Josh Jacobs in the late 2nd round. You can grab a WR there (and even in the next round) knowing that Brown and/or Kamara are in the same tier and will be available a few picks later. Tiers keep you flexible, letting you balance your roster without falling into the trap of chasing one name too early.
ADP Doesn’t Matter After the Draft
Sunk Cost Fallacy: the mistake of holding on to something just because you already invested in it.
In fantasy football, this happens when you refuse to cut or bench a player simply because you paid a higher draft pick for them. Managers cling to draft capital even when the production isn’t there, letting sunk costs blind them to better options available in free agency. But once the draft is over, ADP is irrelevant and only points matter.
It sucks when an early drafted player doesn’t hit. You can keep your team replenished by staying on top of weekly breakouts or opportunities due to injury.
If you draft Travis Etienne Jr. at pick 8.10 and he ends up not being the starter, you’ll need to assess whether he is cuttable based on other players available (perhaps even another RB from his team?). Every year, undrafted players emerge and are available on the waiver wire. Competent managers move on quickly from busts to free up roster spots for players who actually help.
Stacking Players
Complementary Goods: items that become more valuable when paired together rather than on their own.
A WR’s points are often directly tied to his QB’s production. If Amon-Ra St. Brown catches a pass, there’s a strong chance Jared Goff earned points on the same play. The players are complements, and drafting them together maximizes the return on a single offensive event.
Weekly upside wins matchups. Suppose the Lions offense explodes in a given week, your Goff-St. Brown stacks gain leverage instead of spreading it across unconnected events (players on different teams). Instead of thinking in isolation, pair assets so that the sum is greater than the parts.
Check out Kyle’s Best Ball: Stacks We’re All About in 2025 to see some teams we love stacking.
Wait on QBs
Opportunity Cost: the value of what you give up when you choose one option over another.
Taking a QB too early comes with a steep opportunity cost. If you draft Josh Allen in the 2nd round, you pass on elite WRs or RBs who will be off the board by the time you pick again. Even though Allen is excellent, the drop-off between him and Round 12/13th round QBs is much smaller than the drop-off between a 2nd-round WR and a 12/13th round WRs.
Notice that the drop off is only 18.3 – 21% for these two QBs. The WR drop off is 44 – 44.8%.
By waiting on QB, you maximize the value of early picks. You can load up on RB, WR, or even elite TE, then grab a solid passer later who will still get you consistent points. The key is to remember that the actual cost of a QB isn’t the pick itself, but the player at another position you passed up to get him.
Follow Injury Reports
Information asymmetry: when one side has more or better information than the other, creating an advantage.
Matthew Betz, @theFantasyPT on X, has you covered. Follow his Injury Blitz podcast each week here as a member of the Footclan to make sure you own the edge on your league mates.
First episode was jam packed!
Talked thru injury outlooks for:
• Stafford
• Najee
• Aiyuk
• ReedAnd lots more! https://t.co/Jzrt2VXIUC
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) August 15, 2025