Photo By – Imagn Images. Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) looks to pass.
For the first time in a decade, two straight national champions came from outside the SEC. For the first time in two decades, two straight national champions came from the Big Ten.
Can they make it three? The Ohio State Buckeyes are just +650 at FanDuel to win back-to-back national championships, but the Penn State Nittany Lions loom closely behind at +700.
Before you go making your college football picks, let’s break down the college football odds as they pertain to the Big 10.
Big Ten best bets for 2025
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Penn State to win the Big Ten | +230 |
| Washington Over 7.5 wins | +100 |
| Ohio State to miss the College Football Playoffs | +245 |
Read on for our full analysis and Big Ten breakdown!
Odds to win the Big Ten
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Big Ten preview: Who surprises the top tier?
The biggest conference in the country has a clear top four in Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan. It would be a shock both to see anyone else win the Big Ten and to see all four of them make the College Football Playoff. For one thing, those three strongest teams all play each other. For another, there needs to be plenty of doubt in Michigan’s offensive line, as blasphemous as that may sound.
The most interesting piece of the Big Ten is not those four. The most interesting piece is the question asked all summer, “Who is the next Indiana?” Well, it could be Indiana. What quality Big Ten team will ride an underappreciated roster through a favorable schedule to at least be in the 12-team Playoff conversation, if not make the Playoff as the 11-1 Hoosiers did a year ago?
The favorites
If the Big Ten has a clear top four, let’s discuss three of them here and trust you to scroll down a touch to study up on the conference champion pick. And in discussing those three, the negatives will be emphasized right now so as to make it clear why none of them is the conference champion pick.
First of all, Ohio State’s close to 2024 should be remembered for its sheer dominance. Specifically, the Buckeyes’ defense needs to be remembered, No. 1 in the country in scoring defense, total defense, and yards per play, and No. 2 in the country in points per play. The title-sealing third-down conversion heave to Jeremiah Smith is best remembered, but Ohio State’s defense won the national championship.
Now it is gone. A new coordinator has to replace all but one starter in the front two levels and the majority of the secondary. There should be worries about first-time starting quarterback Julian Sayin and new offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, but the real reason to doubt the Buckeyes’ ceiling is Matt Patricia and his defense. Patricia has not had a productive season in nearly a decade. Trusting him in such a huge role is a worrying choice from Ryan Day.
Secondly, Oregon. Dan Lanning has built the second-most consistent program in the Big Ten, but the Ducks’ defense may slide this season. Losing two starting cornerbacks could be a problem when heading to Happy Valley to end September. As well as Oregon has recruited in recent years, only Kirby Smart is reliably trusted to replace nine defensive starters.
Then again, Lanning learned under Smart. The added hurdle here for the Ducks is quarterback Dante Moore. Once upon a time, a heralded recruit, Moore must deliver in his first season as a full-time starter (he started briefly at UCLA in 2023) if Oregon is going to survive trips to Penn State, Iowa, and Washington. Frankly, the Ducks’ November should be approached with caution: at Iowa, vs. Minnesota, vs. USC, and at Washington in four straight weeks. All four of those teams have worthwhile aspirations of surprising the Big Ten this year; an upset of Oregon would not be as shocking as the casual fan may think.
Lastly, Michigan has to find a quarterback and an offensive line. The Wolverines have four very losable games in trips to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC before the regular season finale against Ohio State. Michigan’s ceiling is likely only as high as true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood can raise it. Expecting him to navigate that schedule is a lofty demand.
The rest of the field
There is little reason to spend time on Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State, UCLA, or even Rutgers. The schedule will doom Rutgers, though some early-season games could be ripe to cash Over bets. Under Barry Odom, Purdue might be able to dream of a 4-8 rebound this season, but that is probably the best-case scenario for those six.
The middle tier of the Big Ten boasts eight teams of different intrigue. Let’s discuss them briefly in order of who is most likely to be 2025’s Indiana, crashing the College Football Playoff, from least likely to most …
Wisconsin (+3,000 to make the Playoff at FanDuel): The Badgers could be quite good this season, and the likelihood is that no one notices. A schedule with trips to Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana, and Minnesota is not a schedule designed to post double-digit wins. Oh, plus Iowa, Ohio State, Washington, and Illinois all visit Madison. Wisconsin could be a top-30 caliber team this year and still finish below .500.
Minnesota (+1,800): A favorable schedule and a spectacular defense should create a winning season for the Gophers, but is their offensive line good enough to win 10+ games? Probably not.
My preseason @Covers College Football Playoff prediction.
Penn State following the Michigan 2023 and Ohio State 2024 model.
Kalen DeBoer in Year Two.
Clemson’s schedule.
Notre Dame’s depth. pic.twitter.com/JhL6lHlMYb— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 19, 2025
Washington (+1,120): My official College Football Playoff prediction features two Big 12 teams and only two Big Ten teams. If looking to take a flier on a third Big Ten team, thus knocking out Utah, it should be the Huskies. They host both Ohio State and Oregon; winning one of those games would garner national attention. Head coach Jedd Fisch has pulled in quality transfers to support sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr. Williams is the reason to dream big with Washington. He showed breakout characteristics in limited action last season. If Williams is the real deal, the Huskies could be 2025’s surprise.
Illinois (+790): The Illini have been the trendy choice to pick up where Indiana left off, but Illinois went 5-1 in one-score games last season. Its second-order win total in 11 FBS games was 5.94, a far cry from the 8-3 record it actually enjoyed. Some credit goes to head coach Bret Bielema and star quarterback Luke Altmyer, but that luck is unlikely to show up again this season, and it could go bad as soon as Week 2 at Duke.
Iowa (+760): The Hawkeyes’ ceiling hinges on South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski, but even if he pans out, Iowa has to go on the road to Iowa State, Wisconsin, USC, and Nebraska, as well as host Indiana, Penn State and Oregon. This schedule is simply too difficult to expect Kirk Ferentz to reach double-digit wins.
Nebraska (+710): How good could Dylan Raiola be in his sophomore year? With a quality offensive line in front of him and a strong defense on the other side of the ball, a Raiola breakthrough could spark dreams in Lincoln. Visits from Michigan, USC and Iowa will all be challenges, but feasible ones. There is a version of this season where Nebraska’s Playoff hopes are determined by how competitive it appears on a Nov. 22 trip to Penn State.
Indiana (+680): The Hoosiers are clearly still in this conversation, but their defense should regress this season, and that alone could cost them at Oregon and at Penn State, likely ending any pipe dreams.
USC (+410): These odds seem off. They put a lot of faith into Lincoln Riley’s quarterback development acumen, even though Jayden Maiava did not exactly look like a star last season, and he did not inspire enough confidence to keep some notable receivers around. USC has to travel to both Notre Dame and Oregon, possibly a double-digit underdog in both games. Without at least one of those upsets, do not expect Riley to silence all Trojan doubts.
Pick to win the Big Ten: Penn State (+230)
Penn State or bust. Looking at three of the most respected preview magazines, the Nittany Lions have both the unanimous best offensive line and the unanimous best defensive line in the Big Ten. They are the only contender returning a quarterback, let alone one with as much experience as Drew Allar.
Penn State hosts Oregon and Nebraska, and it travels to Ohio State on Nov. 1. A note pertaining to those two biggest games: The Nittany Lions have the week off before each.
Penn State lost three games last year, to the three teams that finished atop the rankings, and all by one score.
Worries around the Nittany Lions tie to James Franklin, who has gone 1-15 against top 5 teams during his tenure in Happy Valley. Well, criticisms like “Big Game James” are true of everyone until they are not. They were true of Ryan Day a year ago through the end of the regular season, losing two big games at Oregon and against Michigan.
What happened next?
Favorite win totals bet: Washington Over 7.5 (+100)
Let’s ponder the games in which Washington would currently be an underdog or favored by no more than four points. Rough preseason math expects six such moments. For this conversation, chalk up visits from Ohio State and Oregon as losses, and to be cynical, say the same for a trip to Michigan.
The three remaining games in question are vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin, and at UCLA. Betting this Over 7.5 Wins is betting that the Huskies win two of those games.
The Badgers likely will be coming off back-to-back losses — if not four straight — before their own idle week. Wisconsin may be checked out for the season. UCLA’s power rating is unexpectedly high and should not be trusted. Those two games alone set up Washington to clear this total.
And that is all assuming the Huskies do not upset Ohio State or Michigan.
Bonus bet: Ohio State to miss the College Football Playoffs (+245)
A first-time starting quarterback with a new offensive coordinator should not be asked to keep up with Arch Manning and Texas in Week 1. A questionable defensive coordinator attempting to reload a title-caliber defense should not be asked to slow down Penn State’s veteran offense. And does anyone want to bet on Ryan Day winning at Michigan?
Imagine Ohio State loses that opening game against Texas and then loses to Penn State on Nov. 1. Its Playoff hopes could hinge on a road game against its biggest rival, the one that has beaten Day four straight times, the one that so humiliated the Buckeyes last year that many Ohio State fans were not satisfied by a national championship.
The Buckeyes are not the sure-thing for the Playoff that the world seems to assume they are.
Best Big Ten player prop bet
Jeremiah Smith 1+ receiving TD in every regular season game (+7000 at FanDuel)
Obviously, this bet would be fun to follow. Beyond that, there is no defensive back in the country who can keep up with Ohio State’s sophomore receiver. Freshman quarterback Julian Sayin should heave the ball in Jeremiah Smith’s general direction whenever he is uncertain. Let Smith make something happen.
Both Texas and Penn State have excellent defensive backs, but those are also the games in which Ohio State is most likely to need to throw out of desperation, so do not assume those are the moments that will worry this highlight-reel bet.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.