Before Arch Manning even takes his first snap as the Texas Longhorns’ starting quarterback this season, fans, draftniks and NFL scouts alike are wondering whether he’ll declare for the 2026 NFL Draft.
It’s another boxcar on the Manning hype train that’s running full speed as the 2025 season begins, thanks to his last name, his skills and the enticing glimpses he provided in his time as Quinn Ewers’ backup last season. Manning is No. 2 in Dane Brugler’s latest set of early 2026 NFL Draft rankings and the top draft-eligible quarterback.
Although it’s entirely possible he could lead Texas, the preseason No. 1 team in both the Associated Press and coaches polls, to a national championship and declares for the draft, it’s far from a sure thing Manning will jump to the pros after just one year as a starter. His own grandfather, Archie Manning, told Texas Monthly that Arch will return to college next season.
“Arch isn’t going to do that,” Archie told the magazine. “He’ll be at Texas (in 2026).”
Asked about his grandpa’s assertion this month, Arch pushed back, saying with a smile, “Yeah, I don’t know where he got that from. He texted me and apologized about that. I’m really just taking it day by day right now.”
Why would Manning, a potential top-five draft pick, bypass the NFL for one more year of college football? Here are some reasons to consider.
He needs more experience
Manning has taken only 249 offensive snaps in his college career, according to TruMedia. That’s the equivalent of about 3.5 games, based on Texas’ 70 play-per-game average. (He appeared in 10 games last year, but most of those appearances were situational.)
His most extensive action came in two starts against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, plus nearly three quarters of action in a win over UTSA in relief of an injured Ewers. He looked good in those three games, completing 50 of 72 passes (69.4 percent) for 806 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged a whopping 11.2 yards per pass attempt and showed off his mobility, rushing for two touchdowns, including a 67-yard score against UTSA.
Still, that’s just not a large enough sample size to project what type of pro quarterback he’ll be.
Even if he starts 16 games this year (assuming a deep postseason run), that will give him 18 career starts. He may need more seasoning beyond that to give himself the best chance at pro success. Of the top 32 NFL quarterbacks in passing yards in 2024, all but seven had at least 25 college starts.
Patience runs in the family
Arch’s uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, each played four years of college ball and three as the starting quarterback at their respective schools before turning pro. Peyton famously returned to Tennessee for his final year of eligibility even though he was largely projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 1997 NFL Draft. Eli held 24 school records at Ole Miss after his junior season and could have declared for the 2003 draft but opted to return for his senior year.
That doesn’t mean we should expect Arch to be a three-year starter at Texas, exhausting his entire remaining college eligibility. This is a different era. But Arch was willing to wait his turn for two seasons behind Ewers rather than transferring to start sooner elsewhere. It’s reasonable to assume that he could use a similar approach not rush to jump to the pros, especially since there is family precedent.
Money isn’t the primary motivator
Draft decisions used to hinge heavily on money because, up until 2021, it was against NCAA rules for student athletes to be compensated. Why play for free if you’re NFL-ready and can get paid?
The calculus on underclassman draft decisions has changed significantly in the name, image and likeness era and now the revenue sharing era, in which schools are able to directly pay players. It’s not unusual for a starting quarterback at a Power 4 conference school to make seven figures annually. And we’ve seen players bypass the draft for another year of college and cash in while working to improve their draft status. Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward successfully did that, spending his final year at Miami, where he was a Heisman Trophy finalist and eventually became the No. 1 pick.
It’s unclear how much Texas is paying Manning, if anything. The Houston Chronicle reported in May — six weeks before schools were officially able to directly pay players — that Manning wasn’t paid by the school and that he and his family had secured NIL deals without assistance from the school. Manning has partnered with Red Bull, EA Sports, Uber, the trading card company Panini and the clothing brand Vuori.
Manning comes from a family of means and is likely doing well with his various NIL deals, so he doesn’t have to rush to take an NFL contract at the first opportunity.
What if Texas doesn’t win it all?
As Manning steps into the QB1 role, the goal is clear: a national championship. Texas, the preseason No. 1 team, has reached the College Football Playoff semifinals each of the last two years only to come up a few yards short of playing for the title. There’s optimism on the Forty Acres that this is the year the Longhorns break through.
But if Texas doesn’t hoist the trophy at season’s end, would Arch come back for one more run to try to lead the Longhorns to the pinnacle? The roster should be loaded for another run at title contention in 2026.
He enjoys his surroundings
Manning seems to genuinely enjoy being at Texas. One of the many factors he considered in the recruiting process was choosing a place where he would like to attend school even if he didn’t play football. He also has family close by; his younger brother, Heid, is a sophomore at Texas.
Even when he was the third-string quarterback as a freshman and didn’t get to play much, which he admitted was difficult after starting for his entire high school career, he never considered leaving.
“(Transferring) never really crossed my mind. Texas was the place I wanted to be,” Arch said at SEC media days. “It was the city I wanted to be in, a great education. I had friends there. I was still developing and growing as a football player and as a person.
“So I never really wanted to leave. If there was somewhere else I wanted to be, I would have gone.”
Seeking the right NFL team
Although Archie Manning’s comments to Texas Monthly read as an assertion that Arch will return, what if it was instead a little bit of gamesmanship? Let’s not forget how Eli Manning’s draft process played out in 2004. The San Diego Chargers had the first pick, but the family, through Eli’s agent Tom Condon, informed the Chargers that he wanted to begin his career elsewhere and asked the team not to select him first overall (they did, but traded him to the New York Giants after making the pick).
Archie Manning went public with that desire before the draft, though Eli later said it was his decision, which Archie corroborated. “Going through the draft process, I was just worried about the Chargers organization at the time,” Eli said in a 2021 interview on the podcast 10 Questions with Kyle Brandt. “I felt it was the right decision, and I had a little pull. I quietly tried to say, ‘Hey, please don’t draft me, it can be our secret,’ and they didn’t keep the secret part very well.”
The Mannings have handled Arch’s football career with great care, from his vigorously managed recruiting process to the early stages of his college career and various NIL opportunities. It wouldn’t be far-fetched to think that whether Arch stays in college or goes pro depends in some part upon which NFL team has the top pick.
What do NFL scouts think?
According to multiple NFL scouts, the Texas coaches are treating Arch as if he will be one-and-done as the full-time starter in Austin. While that is contrary to the buzz that he will return for his senior season, hoping for the best while preparing for the worst is the smart way for Texas to handle the situation. Head coach Steve Sarkisian knows the Longhorns are going to be good this year — like, CFP-appearance-won’t-be-good-enough level of good. Despite producing a dozen draft picks this past April, the Texas roster has reloaded again, and with Sarkisian’s offensive play calling and infrastructure, the stage is set for Manning to thrive, which is why he is the early betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy.
When it comes to Manning’s pro evaluation, NFL scouts are largely taking a wait-and-see approach. One scout called his live looks at the quarterback during the spring as “promising” while another took a more cautious approach, saying “he’ll have to show it to me.” Will the release get quicker with improved comfort in the offense? Can he go on the road, including trips to Florida and Georgia this fall, and maintain poise? Manning looked very impressive in his two career starts, but those games were both at home, against a Group of 5 team and the worst team in the SEC last year.
With fewer than 100 career pass attempts to his name, Manning won’t be expected to show fireworks early, especially with a tough opener at Ohio State, but the key from an NFL evaluation perspective will be gradual progression throughout the 2025 season. With “Manning” on the back of his jersey, the expectations will always be sky-high, including in the eyes of scouts, who tend to be tough graders. The personal makeup and bloodlines are exceptional, but he will ultimately be drafted based on his on-field performance, which is why everyone, including Arch, should be keeping an open mind on when he will go pro.
(Photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)