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    Home»Boxing»Misfits Boxing 22 predictions, odds: Darren Till vs. Luke Rockhold, Tony Ferguson vs. Salt Papi and more
    Boxing

    Misfits Boxing 22 predictions, odds: Darren Till vs. Luke Rockhold, Tony Ferguson vs. Salt Papi and more

    By Amanda CollinsAugust 29, 20255 Mins Read
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    A weekend of relatively limited combat sports action has opened the door for some of MMA’s bigger personalities of the past decade to steal the spotlight in the Misfits Boxing ring. On Saturday, Misfits Boxing 22 takes place in Manchester, England, primed to deliver the promotion’s typical brand of chaos.

    The main event features a duo of former UFC middleweight stars, starting with the returning one-time UFC title challenger Darren Till. Undefeated in two appearances under the Misfits Boxing banner, Till welcomes former UFC champion Luke Rockhold to the squared circle for a seemingly heated grudge match. Both men have primarily focused on striking arts since parting ways with the UFC, and now meet under boxing rules at 200 pounds.

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    Tony Ferguson also joins Rockhold in making his boxing debut. The former UFC interim lightweight champ remains in hot pursuit of a win after suffering eight consecutive losses to end his UFC career, culminating in a first-round defeat to Michael Chiesa in August 2024. Welcoming Ferguson to the ring is Nathaniel “Salt Papi” Bustamante, who is somehow the most experienced boxer of the four men atop the billing.

    While it may be a break from our usually scheduled programming, Misfits Boxing 22 should deliver everything you’d expect it to Saturday, for better or worse, starting at 1 p.m. ET on DAZN.

    200 pounds: Darren Till (-2000) vs. Luke Rockhold +1000)

    This career arc of becoming the “aged boxer” in life after MMA is still one I’ll never get used to for many of the sport’s beloved legends who continue to thrill-seek.

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    And while that description may not entirely fit Till, 32, it certainly does for Rockhold, 40.

    What makes Rockhold’s foray into the purest punching art so fascinating is that his kickboxing game was always his striking strong suit — specifically, when he can utilize his exceptional kick work. That’s why the prospect of his Karate Combat arrival was so exciting, and what do you know? He scored a knockout in his lone appearance with the promotion against seasoned kickboxer Joe Schilling.

    The win last year was a much-needed combat success for Rockhold, who had gone winless since 2017, even if it was mainly thanks to his great kicks, which set up his patented check hook. Looking back further, though, Rockhold did better than most remember in his bare-knuckle boxing match against Mike Perry in April 2023. The ex-champ sought his check hook often, ultimately landing a clean straight down the pipe to stagger Perry before a late flurry and close to opening round. Unfortunately for Rockhold, his durability was his undoing, as Perry broke his teeth in the second round.

    Rockhold’s defense was seemingly hampered in that match by his inability to keep distance with kicks. That won’t bode well for him against the powerful Till, who has maintained solid punching power throughout the entirety of his career. Till’s post-MMA success has also seemingly boosted the Liverpudlian’s confidence, and while his lack of respect for Rockhold could hurt him thanks to Rockhold’s solid counter game, the X-factor is simply Rockhold’s notoriously concerning chin. Although he didn’t get knocked out by Perry, he did get staggered right after seizing momentum in that first round. And sure, that was gloveless boxing, but Till will be aggressive and deliver vicious volume for as long as this one lasts.

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    Expect a much more competitive match than most are probably assuming, but Till should still come out on top here — nearly every measurable factor sits in his favor, hence the long odds. Rockhold is better suited for kickboxing, grappling, or the combination of the two that he made his name in.

    Pick: Till

    LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 16: Paddy Pimblett of Great Britain (R) is punched by Tony Ferguson of the United States in a lightweight fight during the UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington event at T-Mobile Arena on December 16, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

    Please, Tony. Just win.

    (Sean M. Haffey via Getty Images)

    165 pounds: Tony Ferguson (+340) vs. Nathaniel “Salt Papi” Bustamante (-500)

    I’m not even going to pretend with this one, folks. Ferguson probably won’t win because we’ve passed the point of no return with him, and it’s getting progressively sadder with each appearance. But we’re going to go with the heart pick and say he gets it done, because damnit, “El Cucuy” has to win something this year.

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    There’s no better time than against an influencer, right?

    Again, that’s very likely wrong, as Mr. Papi has actually dedicated a decent amount of time to this boxing run and has done well. Let’s not act like he’s fought competition with the experience of someone like Ferguson, though. And contrary to how it may feel over the past five years, Ferguson has only lost via strikes in two of his eight losses. He very well could channel his inner violent ways and pull this off — despite any obvious limitations at this stage of his career.

    Of course, we’ve also seen this song and dance far too many times in the time since Ferguson last won, and it doesn’t go well for aging MMA fighters. It’ll take a miracle, but I believe.

    Pick: Ferguson

    170 pounds: Dillon Danis (-1200) vs. Warren Spencer (+800)

    Every fiber of my being despises that I have to predict a Dillon Danis win, but I have to be realistic, especially after that last prediction.

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    First of all, Warren Spencer flat-out admitted on Uncrowned’s “The Ariel Helwani Show” that he will give up and tap as soon as Danis takes him down — which Danis will. Obviously this has to be all talk, because that’s a ridiculous thing to say. But this whole fight is ridiculous anyway — you know, because Spencer isn’t an MMA fighter. Though I guess Danis isn’t really one anymore either, having not fought in the sport since 2019.

    Regardless, this is the same type of opponent the jiu-jitsu specialist was fed in his two Bellator bouts. Expect an easy submission for Danis, potentially following the worst striking exchanges you’ve ever seen.

    Pick: Danis

    Preliminary quick picks:

    Joey Essex def. Joao Barbosa

    Sean Hemphill def. Ty Mitchell

    Rahim Pardesa def. Amadeusz Roslik

    Chase DeMoor def. Natan Marcom

    Carla Jade def. Daryn Harris

    Amir Anderson def. Vitor Siqueira

    Demi Sims def. Nadeshi Hopkins

    Boxing Darren Ferguson Luke Misfits Odds Papi PREDICTIONS Rockhold SALT Tony
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