Week 1 is here, and that means it’s time for the annual tradition of second-guessing your lineup decisions before kickoff. Should you trust that shiny sleeper you drafted in the 12th round, or stick with the “safe” option who could quietly torpedo your week? To help separate sneaky starts from sneaky duds, our Featured Pros have weighed in with their picks. Think of it as your fantasy football GPS: They’ll point out the shortcuts, warn you about the potholes and maybe even save you from driving your roster straight off a cliff.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit Advice
Week 1 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is a good sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Xavier Legette (WR – CAR)
“It is Week 1 of the fantasy football season, so don’t try to be cute, or you will start the year on a sour note. That being said, if you are looking for a sleeper to win your week 1 matchup, look no further than Xavier Legette. He is being extremely overlooked due to the drafting of Tetairoa McMillan, but with a matchup against a porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense, he could lead teams to victory. Many owners miss that he had 84 targets last year, which is a telling stat for wide receivers. He is starting the season without his biggest competition, Jalen Coker, and the confidence of Bryce Young. All those factors point to a great start for Xavier Legette and fantasy owners.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“Xavier Legette (Flex Rank 117) is a sneaky Week 1 sleeper with a 4-star matchup against Jacksonville’s porous secondary. With Adam Thielen traded back to Minnesota and Jalen Coker on IR, Legette steps into a prime opportunity to command targets in a thin Carolina receiving corps. Bryce Young has shown chemistry with Legette throughout camp, and Jacksonville allowed the most passing yards per game in 2024, making this a soft-landing spot for a breakout. Legette’s blend of size and after-catch ability gives him real upside as a flex play in deeper formats. If you’re looking for a Week 1 dart throw, Legette has a clear path to volume in a favorable matchup and could pop as a great flex play right out of the gate.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
“Adam Thielen could have a top-24 finish in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears with Jordan Addison missing the game because of a suspension. Last year, Justin Jefferson struggled in the two matchups against the NFC North rivals, totaling nine receptions on 19 targets for 100 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 25 PPR fantasy points. However, Addison was outstanding, totaling 15 receptions on 18 targets for 225 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 43.5 fantasy points in the two matchups against the Bears, scoring 13.3 or more in both outings. Thielen isn’t a star anymore, but still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Don’t be surprised if J.J. McCarthy leans on the veteran wide receiver with Jefferson shadowed by Jaylon Johnson, resulting in eight or more targets for Thielen.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Tyler Warren (WR – IND)
“My favorite Week 1 sleeper target is Colt’s rookie tight end, Tyler Warren. The first-round pick was a dominant force at Penn State and faces no significant competition for targets in his rookie season. My theory for a sleeper tight end is to target tight ends who could be second or better on their team in targets. Well, heading into week 1, it’s conceivable that Warren is not only second, but first in targets from Daniel Jones. Warren will see ample volume in Week 1 in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Miami isn’t the easiest matchup for a tight end, but this game should be a high-scoring affair that leaves plenty of room for Warren to produce.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
“Tyler Warren. Fantasy manager should stick him in their starting lineups and never look back. The Colts’ first-round draft pick had an incredible final college season at Penn State, catching 104 passes for 1,233 yards and producing 13 touchdowns (eight receiving, three rushing, one throwing). Warren reportedly had a great training camp, and in preseason games, he played almost every snap with the starters. People who didn’t follow Warren’s college career are about to find out what an absolute demon he is after the catch.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
“I’m looking at Darnell Mooney as a good sleeper start every week this year, most likely. He finished with just under 1,000 yards last season, and for some reason, no one is talking about him. Mooney combined for 13 catches on 22 targets for 191 yards and three touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, and I expect him to go off against them this year as well.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
“This might be a cop out, but if Darnell Mooney is playing Week 1, he needs to be in your lineup. Through 12 weeks last year, Mooney was the WR13 and only 0.7 fantasy points behind Brian Thomas Jr. Now that Michael Penix Jr. is under center, the entire offense gets an upgrade. We know that Penix isn’t afraid to unleash the ball downfield, and Mooney should be the primary beneficiary opposite of London. The Falcons open their season at home against their division rival, the Buccaneers, in what could easily turn into a shootout. This is a matchup you want every piece of, and I’d take advantage of Mooney flying under the radar due to his shoulder injury.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB)
“I am all aboard the Tucker Kraft hype train in 2025. The Packers-Lions NFC North faceoff should be one of the most fun tilts of the week. With Jayden Reed hampered, look for Kraft to be targeted early and often as Jordan Love‘s safety blanket. A Top 5 positional finish is well within reach for the third-year tight end.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
“Tucker Kraft is a good sleeper for Week 1. If you missed out on the big three tight ends, then you are best served to wait for the next tier. Amongst that tier is Kraft, who has tremendous weekly upside after five top-12 finishes in 2024, including consecutive weeks as the TE-1. As the Packers sort out their wide receiver room, give me the rising star tight end.”
– Chew Russell (Going For 2)
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)
“Romeo Doubs is my favorite sleeper start this week. Last season, he was on pace to lead the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. While Matthew Golden is in line to be the WR1, I believe Jordan Love‘s connection with Doubs will remain strong to start the season. Doubs saw 15 targets of 20+ yards but caught only 5 of them. I think we’ll see him haul in a long touchdown in the opener against the Lions.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Trey Benson (RB – ARI)
“I am not afraid to fire up Arizona’s “backup” RB, Trey Benson, against the Saints this week. The Cards’ D continues to improve, while the limitations of Kyler Murray have been well documented. In a game Arizona should win comfortably, and also a game that has the 3rd lowest over/under on the week, I like the Cardinals to be up and control the clock throughout the second half. Nothing flashy on offense means plenty of James Conner. But Benson, whom the staff and Conner himself have talked up all offseason, should still get plenty of chances in a script that heavily favors the running game. Benson is a nice flex this week, and I’m betting he’s a priority waiver add in shallower leagues ahead of Week 2.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Ollie Gordon (RB – MIA)
“All aboard the Ollie Gordon train headed into 2025. The Dolphins’ backfield has already been hammered with injuries, losing Alexander Mattison for the year in the preseason, Jaylen Wright being week-to-week, and De’Von Achane dealing with a calf problem. This clears the way for the rookie to get potentially double-digit touches in his first NFL game against a Colts team that was dreadful against the run last season. Don’t be shocked if Gordon becomes the biggest waiver wire add of the week headed into Week 2.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Ollie Gordon could get 0 yards or could get all of the yards, per Mike McDaniel. We have seen Miami run a two-headed backfield before and seen both players do well. Achane is coming off a calf injury, and Gordon could work early and get the goal-line work. Right now, he is 127 in the ECR Flex rankings. Deep play, but could be a home run.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE)
“DeMario Douglas is going to lead the Patriots in receptions this season, and the PPR fun begins against the Raiders on Sunday.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
“DeMario “Pop” Douglas is a solid sleeper start this week. He draws a favorable matchup against Las Vegas, where he should thrive in the slot with McDaniels running the offense. With Stefon Diggs likely commanding most of the defensive attention, Douglas should see plenty of short-area opportunities. In PPR leagues, I like him as a WR3/Flex play this week in deeper leagues.”
– Brady Auer (BA Sports Podcast)
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
“Going back to the, not so much a well, but more of the dripping faucet that is Kyle Pitts. The training camp news has been positive about Pitts’s involvement and connection with Penix. While the last couple of seasons have been disappointing, Tampa Bay is awful against the TE. So bad that both of Pitts’s highest yardage games last year came against the Bucs. If you drafted Pitts, you’re not done yet, and week 1 should be a step in the right direction (even if you want to trade him right after).”
– Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers (Razzball)
“2025 is Kyle Pitts’s year. Beginning the year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the perfect way to start his breakout campaign. His second game against the Buccaneers last year saw him catch five passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns. I am buying into the offseason talk from Michael Penix Jr. that Pitts will be heavily involved in the offense, especially with Darnell Mooney injured to start the year. Start Kyle Pitts with confidence this week in a matchup that will once again likely be high scoring.”
– Ryan Prosick (Fantrax)
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
“Just in case you’d forgotten, the Cedric Tillman experience was pretty awesome for a full month in 2024 before a concussion ended his season. Tillman was obviously a beneficiary of Jameis Winston‘s YOLO style last year, but Joe Flacco has been known to have a few Jameisian tendencies, too. It’s not a given that Jerry Jeudy will function as Cleveland’s unrivaled WR1. Tillman’s opening week matchup with Cincinnati is a gift. His name deserves to be in the WR3/flex discussion.”
– Andy Behrens (The Deep Shot)
“Cedric Tillman – Over the past 17 games that Joe Flacco has started, he has accumulated 4735 yards and 31 touchdowns. In Week 1, Flacco and the Browns take on the Bengals, who gave up the 10th most passing yards and 7th most points per game in 2024. Tillman had a three-game stretch last year when he averaged 10.67 targets, seven receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown. Tillman outperformed Jeudy in each of those contests, but is largely forgotten after missing the final third of the season due to a concussion. He enters Week 1 with an opportunity to remind us of what he’s capable of, and is a great option should you need a deep start.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
“Keenan Allen. The dude just showed up a month ago to the Chargers after being unsigned throughout most of free agency, and was already named as a team captain alternate as he seamlessly picked up the offense. Last season, he averaged 4.7 catches in a broken Bears offense. Averaged over eight catches per game with Justin Herbert in 2023. Only once in 2023 was he held under 3.5 catches (12/13 games played). I expected him to be heavily involved in Week 1 as one of Herbert’s go-to receivers.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE)
“Jakobi Meyers is a good sleeper start outside the top 100, because he requested a trade, but at this time it doesn’t seem to be happening, and by admission, he is preparing to play for the Raiders week 1 and on. He also has fallen down draft boards recently and out of most people’s minds as they move on to vague Amari Cooper pick-ups, when Jakobi has been the guy at the WR position for this team for a couple of years now, and he should still be in what should be a very much improved offense.”
– Community Consensus (r/fantasyfootball)
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
“I feel like everyone is sleeping on Dallas Goedert this year. He missed time last year, but he still averaged 10.4 PPR points per game in the 10 games that he played. He was TE10 in that regard. He scored over 9.6 PPG every year of his career except his rookie year, when he scored 5.6 points per game. If I can get 10 PPR points out of my TE, I’m happy. If I can do it with someone ranked way down at 111 overall and TE12 on the week, I’m even happier.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Brenton Strange (TE – JAC)
“Brenton Strange sitting at 127 overall just hurts my soul. Here’s a guy who I think is the 2nd target in this offense behind Brian Thomas Jr. and playing in a scheme where the head coach wants to throw it all over the yard. In addition to this, he gets a matchup against the Carolina “defense,” which, while improved, still barely qualifies as an NFL-level defense. Don’t forget – Strange is a guy who played over everyone’s rookie TE darling, Tyler Warren. He’s got the goods.”
– Lou Brunson (Optimus Fantasy Football)
Week 1 Fantasy Football Duds
Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?
James Cook (RB – BUF)
“James Cook is currently the RB16 for week one and coming off a great season! BUT…he faces the Baltimore Ravens in week 1, which could leave fantasy owners with a sour taste in their mouths. Baltimore is always known to slow the running game of opposing offenses, and this probably won’t be any different for Buffalo. Cook is also riding high on a season where he scored 18 total touchdowns, which is going to be a challenge to repeat. High expectations and a stingy Baltimore defense could lead to disappointed Cook owners after Week 1.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
“I have called Tyreek Hill a bust candidate all offseason. Therefore, it’s no surprise that I would be nervous starting him in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts. Last year, the veteran severely struggled against the Colts, scoring 2.3 PPR fantasy points. While Tua Tagovailoa missed the game with a concussion, Hill wasn’t a superstar last season with the franchise quarterback under center. More importantly, Indianapolis improved its defense this offseason, especially in the secondary, adding Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum, and Xavien Howard. The Week 1 rankings have Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Tetairoa McMillan lower than Hill. Yet, I would start all three over the veteran wide receiver.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
“My pick to disappoint in Week 1 is Lions’ running back, David Montgomery. Montgomery missed the last three games of the 2024 season due to an MCL injury and looked far from his usual self when he returned in the playoffs. Carry that over to Week 1, and I expect Montgomery to be far less explosive than he was when he was healthy. Add in the combination of an increased role for Jahmyr Gibbs and a weaker Lions’ offensive line, and this seems like the perfect storm for Montgomery to be a bust in Week 1 against a stout Packers defense that has just added Micah Parsons to their defensive front. David Montgomery, ranked as RB23 in the FantasyPros flex rankings, is a candidate to disappoint fantasy managers in Week 1 of 2025. Despite his consistent touchdown production (25 rushing TDs over two seasons with Detroit), his role as the Lions’ RB2 behind Jahmyr Gibbs limits his upside. The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears and the loss of key offensive linemen Kevin Zeitler and Frank Ragnow could disrupt Detroit’s run-heavy scheme under new OC John Morton. Montgomery’s 2024 season saw a dip in carries (185 vs. 219 in 2023) and an increased reliance on receiving (36 catches, 341 yards), but his 15.8 touches per game may shrink further with Gibbs’ rising usage. Facing a tough Rams defense in Week 1, Montgomery’s lack of big-play ability and potential for fewer goal-line opportunities make him a risky RB2/flex start. His RB3 projection feels more realistic, especially if the Lions’ offense leans more on Gibbs.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
“I believe David Montgomery is going to disappoint fantasy managers in Week 1. While he’ll still be involved in the offense, this should be the Jahmyr Gibbs show moving forward. We saw what Gibbs could do as the featured back last season, and it would be criminal if that doesn’t carry over into this year. Montgomery simply lacks the explosiveness that Gibbs brings to the table.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
“I really like Tony Pollard as a player and think he’s underrated in real life and in fantasy. With that being said, a Week 1 matchup on the road with the Denver Broncos is a nightmare scenario for him. With the Titans likely trailing for most of this game, I just don’t see how he’ll be able to be effective in this game, much less have the ability to find the end zone.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
“Tony Pollard is going to be a perfectly fine RB2/flex in fantasy this season, but we probably shouldn’t expect much in opening week. The Titans are on the road at Denver, facing one of the league’s elite defenses in Cam Ward‘s first regular-season start. Tennessee’s implied team total is just 17.0 points, and I’m not at all sure they can reach that number. No one should be surprised if we get a 15-touch, 55-yard scoreless outing from Pollard on Sunday.”
– Andy Behrens (The Deep Shot)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“By no means am I out on Breece Hall this season, but let’s wait a week to see just how much Braelon Allen is used in this offense. This is easily expected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week, and the Jets are, of course, underdogs, which could produce a negative game script for Hall and the running game. Pittsburgh boasted a Top 10 fantasy rush defense last year to boot. We can still use Hall in a flex slot, just temper expectations out of the gate.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
“Breece Hall gets a tough opening draw vs the Steelers after losing a premier lineman. Take the under in a lower-scoring game and don’t expect much from Hall.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
“Breece Hall. He’s going to be used in a committee, and he has a tough matchup against the Steelers in a game with a Vegas total below 40. Hall is a flex play at best this week.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
“D’Andre Swift is likely to disappoint in Week 1. The Bears’ offense is in flux with Ben Johnson calling the shots and so many players added in the offseason. The backfield has remained Swift’s leading into the season, but against a division rival Viking’s defense, I am leery. Swift is not a bell cow running back and could be susceptible to losing touches to his supporting cast.”
– Chew Russell (Going For 2)
“D’Andre Swift (Flex Rank 34) is a risky Week 1 start against a tough Minnesota front that consistently limits rushing production. While Swift has the talent to thrive under Ben Johnson long-term, Chicago’s offense looked a little shaky throughout camp and could struggle to sustain drives early. The matchup doesn’t favor explosive plays, and Swift may find himself in a limited role if the Bears are forced into a pass-heavy approach. He’s still adjusting to a new system and may not see enough volume to justify a top 40 flex start. If you’ve got a safer option with a better matchup, Swift is better left on the bench this week.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
“Josh Jacobs is coming off a massive 2024 season, finishing the season as the RB5 with 15 rushing scores. This season, the Packers open against a fully healthy Lions defense. Despite being decimated with injuries in 2024, the Lions allowed fewer than 100 yards on the ground in 11 games. More specifically, the Lions allowed the second fewest rushing yards to the RB position with 68.6 yards per game and the fifth fewest receptions to the position. Defenses aren’t always sticky year to year, but this team also has Aidan Hutchinson back. Unless Jacobs finds pay dirt, this could be an ugly yardage performance to start the season.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
“It’s going to be tough sledding for Omarion Hampton in his first professional start. I’m not going as far as to bench him, but against the vaunted Kansas City front in Brazil and with Najee Harris set to play, his upside is capped in this one. While I expect he’ll see plenty of volume, his odds of a TD are lessened with Najee now cleared for contact and in the fold. Plus, we’ve yet to see how clear receiving snaps will be distributed between the two since Harris hasn’t practiced all summer. I’m bullish on Hampton this season, but against a D that is likely to sell out to stop the run, Hampton should struggle to find a ton of space as he adjusts to the speed of the pro game. I’m tempering expectations this week.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“While I love Omarion Hampton for the season, I do not like him for week 1. While the Bucs are bad against TEs, they are stout against the running backs. They have been a top 5 defense versus running backs the last 2 seasons. Plus, Najee Harris has returned to practice, and I expect the 2 to split duties at least to start the year.”
– Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers (Razzball)
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
“Aaron Jones heads into 2025 with uncertainty. He is no longer the only man for the Vikings after they acquired Jordan Mason in the offseason, who stands to get plenty of run early, especially on short yardage and goal-to-go situations. While Jones might be the man in between the 20s, losing that touchdown upside is potentially killer. For Jones to be a top-40 overall start in the flex ranks is a little crazy, and in a flex situation, I would be firing up the likes of Tet McMillan and TreVeyon Henderson over him in a heartbeat.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Aaron Jones at 37 overall is way too high a ranking for my comfort. The Vikings brought in Jordan Mason and paid him well, and as much as we love Jones, you could see his age start to catch up to him last year. He’s not the ultra-efficient RB he was in his Green Bay and early Vikings days. He’s now a guy who needs a ~45% market share to justify that kind of ranking, and Mason’s presence alone will keep him from it.”
– Lou Brunson (Optimus Fantasy Football)
Davante Adams (WR – LAR)
“Davante Adams could have a rough first game as a Ram against the Houston Texans. The Texans’ defense allowed the sixth-fewest yards through the air in 2024. Pair that with the fact that Adams will be second in line for targets behind Puka Nacua, and it could lead to an upsetting day for those who drafted Adams with a premium pick.”
– Ryan Prosick (Fantrax)
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
“Stretching this out to include a player at 44th overall in the ECR rankings for Week 1 FLEX. The Jets. Both Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall look poised to fall flat in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets are tied with the Saints for the lowest implied team total on the slate (17.5), and they just lost starting guard Alijah-Vera Tucker on the offensive line to a season-ending injury. This horrible matchup at Pittsburgh doesn’t project to be a high-scoring affair between two teams that want to establish the run and play defense. Not a ton of upside for either Hall or Wilson in Week 1, especially if Justin Fields struggles in his debut with the Jets.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Garrett Wilson is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week with a tough matchup against the Steelers. In two career games vs Pittsburgh, he’s managed just seven catches on 15 targets for 102 yards. Mike Tomlin has a history of taking away the opponent’s top weapon, and I expect him to do the same here, forcing the Jets to win elsewhere. This game currently sits at the lowest O/U total for Week 1 at 38.5 points, lining up for a slugfest. He is a fringe WR3/Flex play this week.”
– Brady Auer (BA Sports Podcast)
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
“TreVeyon Henderson – I love Henderson’s prospects this season, but I don’t expect him to come out and light the world on fire in Week 1. It’s likely we see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson for the first few weeks of the season before the Henderson takeover we’re all expecting occurs. Stevenson and Henderson currently have the same rushing yards line on DraftKings in Week 1. Additionally, the Patriots vs the Raiders game has the 4th-lowest over/under of the week; it’s unlikely to be a shootout. Should Henderson start slow, don’t panic – in fact, try to trade for him if you can!”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“Terry McLaurin’s holdout lasted all offseason, and that brings questions for Week 1. Last year, he had a career year, but his fantasy consistency came in an odd fashion. Touchdowns saved some really bad weeks. This Giants defense looks much different than last year and could end up being a tough matchup for Terry, especially if he is on a limited snap count due to a ramp-up. You likely are starting Terry, but I would lower my expectations.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
“Christian McCaffrey is a player that is in the top 40, and actually the top 10, but will likely disappoint fantasy managers this week, with what should be an “ease back in” game on an offense that has lost a lot of its explosiveness over the last 150 days with injuries and departures. It will be interesting to see how many people buy into, without question, CMC becoming a 75% snap share workhorse in his first game back in a long while, paired with his past reinjury history.”
– Community Consensus (r/fantasyfootball)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
“I’m expecting a slow start for Isiah Pacheco, 33rd overall and RB22, in Week 1. The matchup itself isn’t great, but Pacheco also missed time last year and only averaged 8.1 PPR points per game. It sure seems like something was off, and I’m not sure if this is the week for him to come back to life. He only got three carries in 2 games this preseason. I fully expect him to take at least a week or two to get back into form, so I’m probably benching him this week if I can.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
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