What went wrong for the now-eliminated Astros? Houston will miss MLB playoffs for first time since 2016

The Houston Astros have failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Astros were eliminated from postseason contention on Saturday when the Tigers and Guardians claimed the final two berths on the American League bracket, snapping the fourth-longest playoff streak in Major League Baseball history. Houston’s October residence yielded two World Series championships, seven division titles and consecutive trips to at least the League Championship Series, and an unquantifiable amount of controversy. 

Over that stretch, the Astros bid adieu to several top executives, managers, and numerous stars (most recently outfielder Kyle Tucker and third baseman Alex Bregman). Other front offices predicting Houston’s imminent decline became a winter tradition. Yet the Astros would invalidate those forecasts each spring into summer before then adding an exclamation point in the fall. 

Longest playoff streaks in MLB history

That won’t be the case this year, as the Astros will get to experience playoff baseball from their couches along with most of the league. Nevertheless, the Astros did manage to subvert the industry’s forecasts one last time by failing in an unexpected way. See, other front offices usually pinned their gloomy Astros projections on a farm system weakened by years of late (or forfeited) draft picks and win-now trades, as well as the creeping instructions of owner Jim Crane. 

What actually did the Astros in, this version of them anyway, had nothing to do with the above and everything to do with an outright infestation of the injury bug.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ database, no team lost more projected Wins Above Replacement to the injured list than the Astros (nearly 13). Only one other club (the Baltimore Orioles) cleared even 12 WAR. Furthermore, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers were the two teams that lost more than 2,000 individual player games to the shelf. 

The Astros simply couldn’t withstand having so many injuries stack up simultaneously.  Even now, they’re without what amounts to a full rotation (Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Brandon Walter, and Hayden Wesneski) and most of a bullpen (closer Josh Hader, Lance McCullers Jr., Kaleb Ort, and Bennett Sousa). 

Not to be excluded, the Astros’ positional player crop was also damaged early and often. They received just 48 games from slugger Yordan Alvarez. The left side of the infield, third baseman Isaac Paredes (two months with a hamstring) and shortstop Jeremy Peña ( a month with a rib) both missed stretches, and outfielders Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell, and Jake Meyers were absent for at least seven weeks apiece. And so on and so forth.

Key Astros players to miss time because of injury

The Dodgers, to their credit, were able to weather the tides and clinch a playoff berth behind their nearly unmatched depth and supply of critical redundancies. It’s worth noting that they didn’t have their normally strong season, however; they weren’t in serious contention for a first-round bye or for 95-plus wins for the first time in a full season since 2018. 

Granted, it wasn’t just the injury bug that wrecked Houston’s season. Free-agent signing Christian Walker had a disappointing first season in town, while second baseman Jose Altuve had his worst full-season showing since 2013. Young backstop Yainer Diaz didn’t take the step forward the Astros may have desired, and rookie outfielder Cam Smith — part of the return on Tucker — had his moments but was a clear downgrade when compared to his predecessor. 

General manager Dana Brown made three trade additions throughout July, netting infielders Carlos Correa and Ramón Urías and outfielder Jesús Sánchez. Correa’s homecoming provided the Astros with well-above-average offense. Urías and Sánchez, not so much, with Sánchez’s underperformance proving particularly harmful given the oft-tattered state of Houston’s outfield.

Still, throughout it all, the Astros found themselves in first place in the AL West as recently as Sept. 17 and in contention until the final weekend. Given the larger circumstances at play, it’s probably more fair than not to write that this club overperformed. 

At the same time, the Astros’ recent track record allows no room for moral victories and the front office has its share of questions to answer right off the bat this winter. Not just concerning how they avoid being ravaged by injuries again, either. They’re slated to lose ace Framber Valdez and catcher Victor Caratini to free agency. Garcia, meanwhile, has already been ruled out for 2026, a development that could well spell the end of his time with the organization given he was slated for free agency next winter and now appears to be an obvious non-tender candidate.

Whatever Brown and the Astros do this winter, they no doubt will have their sights set on returning to October. After all, few markets know better what constitutes a streak, and missing the playoffs two years in a row would be the start of a most undesirable one.