Week 5 – aka “Upset City” – certainly did not disappoint.
Trevor Lawrence out-dueled Mahomes with the greatest and ugliest TD of all time. The Patriots shut down Josh Allen in Buffalo. The Commanders stymied the Chargers on the road. The Cardinals choked on historic levels. The Broncos fought back against Philly, Houston stepped on Baltimore’s throat, and Mac Jones seemingly lost both lungs en route to an upset in LA. What an amazing game we get to be a part of.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 5 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), Red Zone Rushing, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Stefon Diggs (New England Patriots)
TPRR: 55%
Stat Line: 10 receptions (12 targets), 146 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 19.6 (WR5)
Stefon Diggs put on a revenge-game clinic Sunday night.
He looked nothing like a 31-year-old coming off a torn ACL, making highlight-reel receptions and plays on all levels of the field. With a score of 92.2, he was PFF’s highest rated WR on the week and had a whopping 60 YAC against a stingy Buffalo defense. In an offense void of true playmakers, Diggs was entertaining on and off the field, bringing confidence, swagger, and charisma that – as a Patriots fan – I can confidently say this team has needed for years.
While he certainly started slow, Diggs has posted WR21 and WR5 finishes over the past two weeks, averaging 9.5 targets/game (in that span) and gaining over 100 yards receiving in each matchup. The Patriots have the Saints and Titans on deck, so if you were smart enough to listen to our own @JuliaPapworth back in June, you may have just found an every-week starter.
Stefon Diggs put up 10 catches for 146 yards in his return to Buffalo 🦬 pic.twitter.com/6Py9JVeMXd
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2025
Underperformer: Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)
TPRR: 14%
Stat Line: four receptions (four targets), 40 receiving yards | one rush, nine yards rushing
Fantasy Points: 4.9 (WR64)
If you were here for my rant last week, you will remember highlighting Ladd McConkey in a “buy low” window. Now, to some of you savvy fantasy vets, this may be low-hanging fruit, but I want to reiterate my thought process, as well as the direct correlation between Ladd and QJ.
The Chargers’ offense is facing a temporary identity shift.
They looked dominant for the first few weeks of the season, with my boy Justin Herbert playing MVP-caliber ball, but a lot has changed over the past few weeks. The Chargers are now down their All-Pro starting tackles on both sides, as well as their top two RBs in Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton. This is, how you say.. not good.
What this implies (in my own humble opinion) is that OC Greg Roman is going to be forced to start dialing up more plays close to the line of scrimmage, and without time for things to develop downfield, there’s a chance that Herbert needs to rely on his old safety valve.
This was not a breakout game by any means for Ladd, but he did out-target QJ seven to four and scored his first TD of the year in the process. I am thrilled to see Johnston display his true potential in Year 3, but at least until Joe Alt returns, I expect him to regress back to the boom-or-bust status he has carried for the first two years of his career – albeit with a higher floor.
With that said, the Chargers play the Dolphins this week. Fire them all up.
Quentin Johnston was already seen as a bust for the Chargers. He completely changed the narrative this year
– 22 receptions
– 337 receiving yards (3rd)
– 4 TDs (T3rd)Johnston was drafted at 21 year old. Players development curve are different. Very happy for the young man (24) pic.twitter.com/1XCm85Nf13
— Prospect Film Room (@FilmProspect) October 1, 2025
Red Zone Rushing
The number of rushing attempts a player receives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This metric highlights how often a player is trusted in high-leverage scoring situations, showing who is most likely to be given opportunities to convert short fields into TDs.
Overachiever: Kareem Hunt (Kansas City Chiefs)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 66.7%
Inside the 10: four
Inside the 5: four
Stat Line: seven carries, 49 yards rushing, two TDs | one reception (one target), eight yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 18.2 (RB8)
While 66.7% of red zone carries doesn’t look flashy on the surface, it is notable because Hunt was the only RB on the Chiefs to receive a carry inside the five.
These numbers are a bit skewed due to Patrick Mahomes stepping up his rushing game this season (and Brashard Smith stealing one touch), but four of Hunt’s seven total carries came from inside the five-yard line, indicating that he is clearly viewed as the short-yardage and goal-line back on this team.
I’ve avoided this backfield like the plague this season, and would personally use this as an opportunity to (attempt to) package Hunt and upgrade to a more reliable RB. With that said, he carries weekly Jerome Bettis-esque upside, plodding his way between 30-50, with random TD upside.
Kareem Hunt doing the Monster Mash touchdown celebration the first week of October because he knows he’s not seeing the endzone the rest of the month
pic.twitter.com/OM7BJ7aXmQ— Colby (@cl_all_day) October 7, 2025
Underperformer: TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots)
% of Team Red Zone Carries: 0%
Inside the 10: Zero
Inside the 5: Zero
Stat Line: six carries, 24 yards rushing | two receptions (three targets), three yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 3.7 (RB42)
Of course, there are plenty of RBs we could mention who had 0% of their team’s red zone carries – but despite his constant fumbling, it is noteworthy that Rhamondre Stevenson still took three touches from inside the 10, converting two of them for TDs.
Those of you who invested capital in Henderson are still waiting for your ROI, and that opportunity may present itself sooner than later. In quieter injury news this week, the Patriots lost backup RB Antonio Gibson for the year with a torn ACL, thrusting Henderson into the RB2/receiving back role this team has historically coveted. Vrabel and McDaniels have been slow-playing their electric second-round pick, but with some favorable matchups coming up, it may finally be time to unleash him.
Treyveon Henderson managers watching Rhamondre fumble but still scoring two touchdowns pic.twitter.com/ZdgCR5TI2S
— James D Koh (@JamesDKoh) October 6, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Rico Dowdle
xFP: 23.2
Fantasy Points: 30.9 (RB1)
Just like we all predicted, Uncle Rico Dowdle put up a casual 234 yards from scrimmage on his way to the RB1 overall finish. Classic.
With Chuba Hubbard out, Dowdle embraced the bell-cow role in Carolina, out-touching Trevor Etienne 26 to five, and leading the Panthers to their second win of the season. It’s hard to decipher if this is more credit to Rico or shade to Miami, but credit where credit is due, as Dowdle put his name into elite territory this week.
Keep an eye on Chuba’s status as the week goes on, but Dowdle had already been quietly eating into his snap share and may have earned himself some more playing time moving forward.
How INSANE was Rico Dowdle’s performance in Week 5?
It was the THIRD most scrimmage yards by a RB in a game in the last 4 seasons.
1) Josh Jacobs – 303 Yards
2) Saquon Barkley – 302 Yards
3) Rico Dowdle – 234 Yards pic.twitter.com/EKGdBYWQvU— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 7, 2025
Underperformer: Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)
xFP: 22.3
Fantasy Points: 9.4 (WR35)
Chris Olave has seen 10+ targets in four of five games this season, but has not been able to put it all together for fantasy purposes. It’s easy to blame the QB play, scheme, system, and so on, but at the end of the day, he remains in a (fantasy) dream situation of high volume and guaranteed positive game script.
What we can say about Olave is that although he has not had any blow-up games, he has been a model of consistency, scoring between 8.4 and 10.7 every game this season. Currently sitting at WR29, we have to consider him among the safest of weekly floors, with plenty of room to improve given his one TD thus far.
He may struggle to find room against Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez this week, but the Bears and Buccaneers present favorable matchups for the two weeks following. Olave is on my list of “buy low” players entering Week 6, given his high floor and ceiling.
Chris Olave is 2nd in the NFL in targets with 54.
He’s 41st in receiving yards with 244.
The PPR scam continues. pic.twitter.com/S4yGW2vwdh
— Underdog (@Underdog) October 6, 2025