Former men’s flyweight title challenger Brandon Royval looks to reenter championship contention when he takes on Manel Kape in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, prelims at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Royval enters the fight following a unanimous decision loss in June to since-crowned champion Joshua Van. Although Royval didn’t get the nod on any of the judges’ scorecards, the fight was closely contested and is a frontrunner for ESPN’s fight of the year. Royval is No. 3 in ESPN’s flyweight rankings.
Kape, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked flyweight, has beaten his past two opponents by third-round knockout. In his most recent win, in March, Kape ended Asu Almabayev’s unbeaten run inside the Octagon.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their main event predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.
Men’s flyweight main event
Kape’s coach, Eric Nicksick, has assured me that Kape is healthy. That’s the most important thing for him. If he’s healthy, he’s dangerous — and perhaps the most skilled flyweight in the UFC. If his coach is right, Kape will beat Royval, probably by knockout. Royval is a volume striker who doesn’t have the best defense. Kape’s speed will be too much for him. — Din Thomas
This is a tough one, but I’ll lean Royval. Kape appears to be a one-trick pony, while Royval has so many different ways to win. He’s dangerous on the feet and he’s such an opportunist when it comes to grappling. Kape puts himself in some bad spots at times. He has shown he can scramble and muscle his way out of those bad spots, but he can’t afford to do that against Royval. — Anthony Smith
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit DraftKings.
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds. (-140). Both fighters are extremely durable, as neither of them has ever been finished inside the Octagon. Thus, I don’t see a finish happening before Round 4.
Kape will try to keep the fight standing, where he will have a striking advantage, while Royval will look to turn this into a brawl and may try to get it on the mat. If you have to take a shot on a winner, the value here is on Royval as a near +250 underdog. He has plenty of five-round fight experience, while Kape’s only five-round fight ended in Round 3.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
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Melquizael Costa gets Andre Fili to tap
Andre Fili taps out after Melquizael Costa locks in the guillotine choke for the win at UFC Fight Night.
Featherweight: Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos
Over 2.5 rounds. (-154). This should be a fun fight between two high-level strikers. The odds are a bit high on Vallejos, considering he only has two UFC fights since earning a UFC contract last year on “Dana White’s Contender Series.” Chikadze is coming off back-to-back losses, but he has proven he is durable and can compete with the best fighters in the division. Take over 2.5 rounds and expect this to be a competitive fight that goes the distance.
Featherweight: Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charrière
Costa to win (-112). This is great value on Costa, who is riding a four-fight winning streak. He can match Charrière’s striking on the feet, and he has great wrestling and grappling. Look for Costa to fight with great pace and pressure Charrière to take away his power punching. If Costa gets the fight to the mat, he will have a major advantage.
Strawweight: Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson
Robertson to win by submission. Robertson is one of the best grapplers and submission specialists in the division. Although Lemos is a great power puncher, if she makes a mistake and becomes off-balance, Robertson can take advantage and get her to the mat. Once there, Robertson can utilize her ground game to control the fight and eventually find a submission for the win.