Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. I feel like today is the last day you can reasonably say Happy New Year; that’s just my thought. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins, and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game slate tonight following the game in Berlin, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash games unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate, and a Happy New Year to everyone. I feel like today is the last day you can reasonably say Happy New Year; that’s just my thought. I hope your resolutions include some big DFS wins, and I’m here to make it happen. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game slate tonight following the game in Berlin, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash games unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Jaylen Brown (SF, SG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $9,900
- FanDuel: $9,400
To start this slate off, it feels that Boston is a pretty easy play with the biggest pace-up spot you can find in any game this season. That’s right, we have finally reached team one versus team 30 in pacing. Miami averages nearly 10 possessions more than Boston, so think of all that extra back and forth.
I know I make a big deal about pacing, but any given bucket could be the difference between cashing and not. Jaylen Brown is off the injury report after missing the last game, so his injury designation on DraftKings right now might limit his rostership a little bit. I don’t expect any news to come, but stay updated because Brown should see around 35 minutes tonight and get to 45 or so fantasy points.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL)
- DraftKings: $11,000
- FanDuel: $11,400
While technically considered questionable for tonight, I don’t doubt that Giannis Antetokounmpo is your ceiling play tonight against San Antonio. The Spurs’ defense is a respectable top-10 unit, but it’s hard to stop Antetokounmpo. I haven’t really gone to the Bucks forward much this year simply because I felt I could keep finding better options, but that’s difficult tonight.
Antetokounmpo has gone over 50 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, including a 64-point effort. On this slate, 50+ points feels like it will make an optimal lineup, putting him at a near 50/50 chance of being a must in your lineup. Considering he’s less than 40% rostered in early projections, Antetokounmpo remains a solid leverage play.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
P.J. Washington Jr. (SF, PF – DAL)
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $6,900
The Mavericks are a quintessential wait-and-see team because who knows their starting lineup right now. With multiple questionable players and playing in the second game of a back-to-back, a lot is up in the air. What isn’t questionable is their opponent.
Utah is one of the best teams you can ask for, fantasy-wise, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opponents on the season and the most to small forwards. Their defense ranks dead last, and they are the fourth-fastest NBA team in possession rate. If Washington plays, he should be expected to have a 25% usage rate and around 30 minutes of playing time, which is a pretty high floor at home against Utah.
Payton Pritchard (PG – BOS)
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,100
It feels like Payton Pritchard always ends up in this category. Even with Jaylen Brown back in the lineup, I still find myself going to the former Oregon Duck. Pritchard continues to see his price increase, but with the pace up spot and a 25% usage rate, his floor stays high.
Pritchard has scored 25+ fantasy points in 17 of his last 18 games and over 30 in seven of his last eight matchups. I project him closer to 35 tonight, and it feels more likely we’ll see a ceiling output because we have seen him capable of posting a 50-burger.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAS)
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $7,500
I originally wanted to put De’Aaron Fox as a core play, but then I saw his rostership projection at barely double-digits tonight and re-evaluated. I guess you could say the Bucks are a slow team, but their defense is a bottom-third unit that only ranks worse in their last 10 games.
That puts Fox in a prime spot to go over 40 and even 50 fantasy points with an efficient evening tonight. The Spurs guard has consistently played 33+ minutes in the last four games, and he’s seen a solid usage rate of 26%. I simply think with the top-heavy guards tonight, few will trickle down to Fox for rostership tonight. That’s a mistake, making him a solid leverage play.
Alperen Sengun (PF, C – HOU)
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,600
I don’t exactly trust Alperen Sengun to have a great game tonight, but I do trust his chance of having a good game more than his current rostership projection. Oklahoma City’s defense is tough as nails, ranking first on the season and in recent play, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers this year. That’s not great.
However, the opportunity cost is potentially high given the lack of centers on tonight’s slate. You can get to Neemias Queta or a still not 100% Victor Wembanyama, but for pure points, Sengun might be your best bet tonight. Considering he’s below 20% rostered, make sure to sprinkle him into large-field GPPs.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Dru Smith (PG, SG – MIA)
- DraftKings: $3,200
- FanDuel: $3,700
Monitor whether Dru Smith or Pelle Larsson gets the start tonight. Either or, they both offer solid value tonight. I’m generally out on Miami players tonight, especially with Tyler Herro back and the extreme pace down spot for the Heat. Smith and Larsson are cheap enough to make it worth it.
Neither breaks the bank, and we saw Smith and Larsson both go over 20 fantasy points earlier this week. That’s what you’re hoping for here tonight. With Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jokic all dealing with some form of injury, these two sub-$5,000 plays should provide a solid return on investment (ROI) tonight.
Jaden Hardy (SG – DAL)
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $3,600
If things fall the right way, Jaden Hardy might be the best pure value play tonight. We’ve covered Utah. Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams and Klay Thompson qualify here, depending on who sits, but it’s looking like Hardy will see the starting lineup. It appears Max Christie, Cooper Flagg and Daniel Gafford will all sit tonight to go with Anthony Davis, who is already out. There are a lot of holes to fill.
This is the epitome of why late swapping is such an edge. One of these players is almost guaranteed to end up in the optimal lineup, and it’s impossible to tell right now who that is. But after the slate starts and starters are announced, you’ll get an edge putting the right value plays in, so stay sharp on your late swaps with these Dallas plays.
